CRUDE OIL - BULL TREND

OCT'13 CRUDE OIL

Market State - BULL TREND

Technically the MKT remains in a positive position above the 106.73 DP [DOWNSIDE PIVOT]. Expectation is for the MKT to maintain positive momentum and trend higher. Use trend following tactics and the Price Map to identify opportunity to participate in any new leg higher.107.83 is the KEY DIRECTIONAL PIVOT for the session.

BULL TREND - OPTIMAL STRATEGY

CRUDE OIL - MAKING A MOVE

The OCT'13 CRUDE OIL has broken out to the upside basis the DAILY market state and is approaching good directional resistance at the 109.32-109.06 Upside Target resistance. If the MKT is going to fall back into a sideways digestion it will reject here. If not the LONG TERM POSITIVE TRANSITION is in play targeting $125. Keep a BUY BREAK outlook above the 107.10 Upside Pivot [UP].

CRUDE OIL - PIVOTAL

This weeks MKT is: CRUDE OIL OCT'13 contract.

Market State: TREND NON TREND - PIVOTAL 

The Long Term forecast for CRUDE OIL remains $125 over the next 3 months. Currently the MKT has yet to commit and is would up in a PIVOTAL market state.

MARKET STATE 

The market in a TREND NON TREND has typically been in a NEUTRAL market state for at least 3 trading periods and is ready to make a decisive move out of its “range” trade. This is a “pivotal” trading period with the potential to be the start of the next significant advance or decline. This Technical State can present difficult trading conditions with false signals in both directions common. The MKT is gearing up for a move and will either continue to narrow its recent trading range or “bust” out into a new trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the market, however aggressive risk management should be implemented. REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies are recommended. Successful BREAKOUT strategies under these conditions are typically “one-shot” opportunities, using aggressive trail stops.

UP = 107.10 
DIR R = 106.12 
DP = 105.14 

Additional Comments NOTE: The MKT in this Technical State is “on the fence” with the potential for a decisive session. Typically a successful “trend” move will have only 1 test of the DIR R level before making a move. If the MKT presents an opportunity early in the trading period that does not follow through, consider taking a step back to re-initiate later in the session to avoid the mid-session chop.

CRUDE OIL - POSITIVE TRANSITION

This weeks market is: CRUDE OIL OCT'13 contract

Market State: NEUTRAL POSITIVE TRANSITION

The Long Term forecast for the front month Crude Oil is $125 over the next 3 months. Currently the the MKT has yet to commit and is in a NEUTRAL POSITIVE TRANSITION market state with a higher expectation.

MARKET STATE

A NEUTRAL POSITIVE TRANSITION #NPT technical state  has produced a positive technical signal from a Neutral position. Expectations are for this signal to follow through with the potential of being the beginning of a new BULL TREND move. The #NPT market state can present difficult trading conditions with false signals in both directions common. If the market is indeed going to transition high it should just “go” and maintain positive structure. If not, price action is more likely to shift into more of a sideways trade. REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies are recommended. Successful BREAKOUT strategies under these conditions are typically “one-shot” opportunities, using aggressive trail stops.

MARKET STRUCTURE

UP = 108.82

DIR = 106.92 [YELLOW DASH LINE]

DP R = 105.03

The the positive signal is in “play” above the DP R Level. Expectations are for the MKT to create positive trend structure above this price point. Currently MKT is trading @ the 106.92 DIRECTIONAL PIVOT (the YELLOW dash line in the image above). Use this technical level as a momentum trigger for the current price action. A BREAKOUT above the UP [UPSIDE PIVOT] is needed to confirm any shift into a BULL TREND market state. Markets in this state should just “go” and begin to trend higher. If not a sideways digestive trade is expected to develop. Only below the DP is the positive signal negated.