Wednesday, May 1, 2013

SOYBEANS


Today's MARKET STATE SOYBEANS **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

- The MKT is in a sideways digestive position with a slight positive bias.
- On the SELL side avoid DP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a positive reaction against the DIR after a negative breakdown signal. UP and UT1 REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any UP FADE trades should get confirmation first.
- On the BUY side UP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade. Work any position, selling into emotional surges and re-entering on any sharp pullbacks. Expect a choppy trade and be aggressive on minimizing profit give-back. DP and DT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for S









Wrap Up
In a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state with the R Level at the DIR (center of the Pricemap), the market is "on the fence" and has the potential to create a new directional move or go nowhere and churn sideways within the Critical Range.  In this particular scenario (NEU w/ R=DIR), the moving average crossover / "band" tactic should be used along with the markets ability to maintain directional structure as the "tell".  As you can see, the market began building lower lows and lower highs during the overnight session, while the faster 21-period SMA crossed from above to below the slower 55-period SMA generating a "sell" signal.  This gave trades confidence to accept the SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy that occurred at 6:00 am CT.  The Moving Average "band" served as resistance to the 9 am rally and kept traders in the position.  The market continued to maintain negative structure until eventually reaching the minor level ** at 1366.00 around 10 am CT.  From here the market bounced off the minor support pivot to end the session by the DT1.

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