CRUDE OIL - BULL TREND

OCT'13 CRUDE OIL

Market State - BULL TREND

Technically the MKT remains in a positive position above the 106.73 DP [DOWNSIDE PIVOT]. Expectation is for the MKT to maintain positive momentum and trend higher. Use trend following tactics and the Price Map to identify opportunity to participate in any new leg higher.107.83 is the KEY DIRECTIONAL PIVOT for the session.

BULL TREND - OPTIMAL STRATEGY

CRUDE OIL - MAKING A MOVE

The OCT'13 CRUDE OIL has broken out to the upside basis the DAILY market state and is approaching good directional resistance at the 109.32-109.06 Upside Target resistance. If the MKT is going to fall back into a sideways digestion it will reject here. If not the LONG TERM POSITIVE TRANSITION is in play targeting $125. Keep a BUY BREAK outlook above the 107.10 Upside Pivot [UP].

CRUDE OIL - PIVOTAL

This weeks MKT is: CRUDE OIL OCT'13 contract.

Market State: TREND NON TREND - PIVOTAL 

The Long Term forecast for CRUDE OIL remains $125 over the next 3 months. Currently the MKT has yet to commit and is would up in a PIVOTAL market state.

MARKET STATE 

The market in a TREND NON TREND has typically been in a NEUTRAL market state for at least 3 trading periods and is ready to make a decisive move out of its “range” trade. This is a “pivotal” trading period with the potential to be the start of the next significant advance or decline. This Technical State can present difficult trading conditions with false signals in both directions common. The MKT is gearing up for a move and will either continue to narrow its recent trading range or “bust” out into a new trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the market, however aggressive risk management should be implemented. REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies are recommended. Successful BREAKOUT strategies under these conditions are typically “one-shot” opportunities, using aggressive trail stops.

UP = 107.10 
DIR R = 106.12 
DP = 105.14 

Additional Comments NOTE: The MKT in this Technical State is “on the fence” with the potential for a decisive session. Typically a successful “trend” move will have only 1 test of the DIR R level before making a move. If the MKT presents an opportunity early in the trading period that does not follow through, consider taking a step back to re-initiate later in the session to avoid the mid-session chop.

CRUDE OIL - POSITIVE TRANSITION

This weeks market is: CRUDE OIL OCT'13 contract

Market State: NEUTRAL POSITIVE TRANSITION

The Long Term forecast for the front month Crude Oil is $125 over the next 3 months. Currently the the MKT has yet to commit and is in a NEUTRAL POSITIVE TRANSITION market state with a higher expectation.

MARKET STATE

A NEUTRAL POSITIVE TRANSITION #NPT technical state  has produced a positive technical signal from a Neutral position. Expectations are for this signal to follow through with the potential of being the beginning of a new BULL TREND move. The #NPT market state can present difficult trading conditions with false signals in both directions common. If the market is indeed going to transition high it should just “go” and maintain positive structure. If not, price action is more likely to shift into more of a sideways trade. REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies are recommended. Successful BREAKOUT strategies under these conditions are typically “one-shot” opportunities, using aggressive trail stops.

MARKET STRUCTURE

UP = 108.82

DIR = 106.92 [YELLOW DASH LINE]

DP R = 105.03

The the positive signal is in “play” above the DP R Level. Expectations are for the MKT to create positive trend structure above this price point. Currently MKT is trading @ the 106.92 DIRECTIONAL PIVOT (the YELLOW dash line in the image above). Use this technical level as a momentum trigger for the current price action. A BREAKOUT above the UP [UPSIDE PIVOT] is needed to confirm any shift into a BULL TREND market state. Markets in this state should just “go” and begin to trend higher. If not a sideways digestive trade is expected to develop. Only below the DP is the positive signal negated.

GOLD - NEUTRAL DIGESTION

This weeks market remains: GOLD Aug'13 contract

Market State: NEUTRAL DIGESTION

The longer term Market State remains BEAR TREND CORRECTION but the contract has shifted into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state with a sideways expectation.

A NEUTRAL DIGESTION technical state is typified by directionless sideways trading action. False BREAKOUT signals are common in this technical state. Expectations are for price move with no follow through and “misleading” intra-day structure formation

NEUTRAL DIGESTIVE sessions can be the precursor to a “BREAKOUT” as the coiling action will build power. Typically a sign that the sentiment is going to change from neutral digestive to trend is signaled by an early session trend move with no break in the positive or negative structure. A simple Moving Average is a great tool to use to identify a possible “Breakout” day with the expectation that if the market is going to scale up or down it will maintain a trade above or below the Moving Average.
The underlying long term negative bias has sentiment above the market, defined by the R LEVEL.

R = 1348.7

UP = 1336

DP = 1308.3

EXPECTATION is for any positive price action to be contained within or below the UP-R resistance and any negative momentum to find support above the DP [DOWNSIDE PIVOT]. The underlying sentiment bias is negative so the DP should support any weakness if the sideways forecast is going to hold. A failure from the DP support is a sign of weakness that is leveraged by the negative sentiment bias which must be respected as the potential start of a transitional trade and the potential resumption of the underlying long term BEAR TREND.

GOLD - BEAR TREND CORRECTION

UPDATE : Aug'13 GOLD

1327 is the pivot supporting the corrective rise. If the MKT is going to remain "CORRECTIVE" targeting the 1345 resistance it will maintain a trade above this price point. If not it is vulnerable to a resumption of the BEAR TREND.

GOLD - BEAR TREND CORRECTION

This Weeks Market: GOLD Aug’13 contract


Market State: BEAR TREND CORRECTION

GOLD has been in a BEAR TREND since the start of the year confirming a negative shift the week of FEB 11 2013 and is now in a “CORRECTIVE” rally from the JUN 24 2013 week lows.

Defined:

A market in a BEAR TREND CORRECTION has produced a positive signal against a negative trend. The market is vulnerable to the downside, however does have the potential to produce a counter trend corrective rise. The market is searching for resistance. Positive corrective action can disappear quickly so avoid leveraging up on any rally as the negative momentum will try to re-establish itself.

The key to this Market State is the technical level that identifies the “peak” of the lower move low, lower move high Structure of the underlying BEAR TREND. It is this Market Structure alignment point that will signal a resumption of the BEAR TREND or a transition into a neutral or positive trending Market State.

The Market Structure alignment for Aug’13 GOLD has been identified at 1345.0.




STRATEGY AND TACTICS

A BEAR TREND CORRECTION is a NON TREND type state. In NON TREND type states follow through is unlikely however emotional trading conditions should be expected at the technical alignment points. Use Deviation, oscillator and turning point indicators and reversal chart patterns to aid in identifying an exhaustive turn and resumption of the BEAR TREND. TREND FOLLOWING tactics such as a simple Moving Average can be incorporated to confirm a break in the current positive momentum. In a BEAR TREND CORRECTION Market State the expectation is that the positive “corrective” rally will break structure at an alignment point however until it does, the potential for a positive transition must be respected.

Market State analysis identifies the technical environment the market is currently trading in. Strategies and tactics to buy or sell should be in alignment with this theme to optimize performance. The best risk defined opportunities are to be found at Market Structure alignment price levels.

ADDITIONAL COMMENTS


Identifying the negative “turning point” is the optimal strategy in this market state, as it represents the potential beginning of a new reaction lower. Corrective states can be emotional before the positive “corrective” action exhausts and the BEAR TREND resumes. This state does have the potential to spark a “sustained” corrective rise lasting 3-5 sessions and transition the market in a neutral state or even BULL TREND reversal.

The market is Trending in one direction but is characterized by a “stop and go” trade, with sharp counter trend reactions. There is opportunity on both sides of the market with the best being in the direction of the underlying Trend bias. FADE and REVERSAL strategies are expected to be more successful over BREAKOUT strategies as the CORRECTIVE action will keep the trade “choppy”...

For Market State education, analytics and application please contact info@jsservices.com .

SWISS FRANC

Today's MARKET STATE SWISS FRANC **BEAR TREND**
- Technically the MKT is vulnerable to the offer. On the SELL side accept all BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL signals. The MKT is on edge and any negative signal, especially below the previous session high, is an opportunity. Anticipate a price "zone" around a major resistance point to FADE. Have a plan and be ready. If your stop gets hit and the MKT does not immediately follow through, consider re-entering, even doubling up if there is structure to define low risk.
- On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major support levels but preferably after an emotional sell off. This is an aggressive strategy and any profits should be realized at the previous support failure points. Avoid DP FADE BUYS even with confirmation, as this is more likely a plateau for a BREAKOUT SELL strategy. UP BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but do have a better chance of succeeding than a DP FADE.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SF

Wrap Up

The DOUBLE TOP in the SWISS FRANC today at our KEY INFLECTION PIVOT was the signal to get SHORT the SWISS FRANC market on the SELL UP REVERSAL strategy.  At 3:30 am CT, the market peaked its head above the UP R and then quickly reversed back under this key level of resistance.  After selling off back toward the DIR, the market had another go at the UP R and offered us an exhaustive DOUBLE TOP formation.  This was our "tell" to accept the SELL UP REVERSAL strategy which took the market all the way down to the DP SUPPORT pivot, where profits could have been realized.  After bottoming at the DP, a BUY DP REVERSAL hedge strategy got traders LONG from our SUPPORT pivot.  Traders were able to ride this trade all the way up to the DIR to close the session.

WHEAT

Today's MARKET STATE WHEAT **BEAR TREND CORRECTION**
- Technically the MKT momentum is counter trend and will need a strong showing to overcome the underlying negative threat.
- On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies off the UP or near the previous session or move high will work best. DIR or DP BREAKOUT should just go. A better option is to FADE positive reactions against the DIR after a negative signal.
- On the BUY side accept FADE and BREAKOUT strategies. BREAKOUT should expect some "starts and stops" The trade is corrective and sharp positive surges can be erased in a hurry.  FADE will work if the corrective state is going to continue.  REVERSAL strategies are a lower probability as a break in structure should be considered a potential negative shift in momentum.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for W

Wrap Up

In a NON-TREND market state, the RSI momentum indicator gave traders the "tell" to accept the BUY R FADE strategy from our key inflection pivot.  As the market bottomed at the DP R level of SUPPORT, the RSI indicator signaled a major BULLISH DIVERGENCE.  This TACTIC gave traders the confident to get long the market from the lows of the session and ride the rally up to the DIR where profits could have been taken.  Today's action in the WHEAT futures market is another example of how MARKET TACTICS can aid in confirming optimal strategy given the technical state of the market.

NATURAL GAS

Today's MARKET STATE NATURAL GAS **BULL TREND CORRECTION**
- The MKT has produced a negative signal against an underlying positive trend. On the SELL side accept UP FADE signals on the 1st press into the area only. REVERSAL strategies should only be done off the UP or the previous session high point and will immediately work if they are going to. Keep position and risk management tight on these trades. SELL DIR and DP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive but do have potential to be the start of a larger corrective turn. Keep risk management tight.
- On the BUY side accept REVERSAL signals off all major inflection levels, expecting the underlying positive momentum to resume. DP FADE strategies will work better with confirmation as the MKT is in a corrective state and will be probing lower, looking for soft spots. Work any BUY DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies as any positive shift in momentum has the potential to be the start of the next leg higher. DIR FADE strategies after the UP Breakout should use greater leverage.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for NG

Wrap Up

Today was a good day to execute our optimal STRATEGY from our KEY INFLECTION PIVOT in the NATURAL GAS futures market.  In a BULL TREND CORRECTION state, the market has produced a corrective signal in an underlying BULL TREND.  The expectation is that any corrective pullback should exhaust at the DP R.  By using our RSI tactic, JS Traders were able to spot the BULLISH DIVERGENCE signals forming with each successive low approaching the DP R inflection pivot.  Our final divergence signal just before noon CT gave traders the BUY DP REVERSAL signal.  Traders were able to ride the divergence signal all the way up to the DIR.

BRITISH POUND

Today's MARKET STATE SOYBEANS **NEUTRAL POSITIVE TRANSITION**


- Technically the MKT is vulnerable to the offer. On the SELL side accept all BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL signals. The MKT is on edge and any negative signal, especially below the previous session high, is an opportunity. Anticipate a price "zone" around a major resistance point to FADE. Have a plan and be ready. If your stop gets hit and the MKT does not immediately follow through, consider re-entering, even doubling up if there is structure to define low risk.
- On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major support levels but preferably after an emotional sell off. This is an aggressive strategy and any profits should be realized at the previous support failure points. Avoid DP FADE BUYS even with confirmation, as this is more likely a plateau for a BREAKOUT SELL strategy. UP BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but do have a better chance of succeeding than a DP FADE.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for BP

Wrap Up

A perfect day to short the BRITISH POUND from our "resistance zone" as the market traded to within a few ticks of the KEY INFLECTION PIVOT for the session before the sharp sell off.  Around 6:30 am CT the market gave traders the first entry signal with a SELL R FADE strategy from the optimal entry point at the 1.5138 R LEVEL.  For traders that missed this signal, another SELL opportunity was presented just after 8 am CT with a SELL UP REVERSAL after the market REVERSED back into the Critical Range.  After retesting the UP for one final time at 9 am CT, the market collapsed down through the DIR and eventually closed at the lower end of the Critical Range between the 1.5044 minor level and the Downside Pivot (DP).  By identifying the RESISTANCE ZONE from the UP-R, JS Traders were able to short the BP from the highs of the session and capitalize on the big sell off.

JS Services Strategy Based Trading

Defining Market State, Structure, and Strategy is essential to becoming a successful trader. See how JS Services can help you reach your maximum potential!

The following web video provides the foundation to our Strategy Based Trading approach.

http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html

If you would like to sign up for a FREE TRIAL of JS Services click here.

We also offer educational courses that teach traders how to incorporate technical analysis into their trading methodology.  For more information on our educational courses, contact erik@jsservices.com

If you have any questions, feel free to email us at: info@jsservices.com.

Good Trading!

SOYBEANS

Today's MARKET STATE SOYBEANS **NEUTRAL POSITIVE TRANSITION**


- Technically the MKT has the potential for a positive turn. Opportunity exists on both sides, however there is a better chance of an acceleration to the upside if the integrity of the previous session low remains intact. On the SELL side avoid UP and DIR FADE strategies until after the previous session low point has been broken. Until then, a better opportunity will be a UP REVERSAL strategy. The idea is that the transition trade is over and a negative shift back into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION is expected. DP BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive. Risk less, go for more.
- On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies with the expectation that the current positive transition will continue. Keep aggressive position management on UP BREAKOUT strategies as the MKT is still in the neutral zone and has yet to commit to a new trend. A more conservative strategy would be to wait for negative reactions after a positive signal to FADE the DIR.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for S

Wrap Up

Today the STRONG BAR breakout pattern was the "tell" to accept the UP BREAKOUT strategy in the SOYBEANS market.  The MKT was in a NEUTRAL POSITIVE TRANSITION market state with the sentiment bias below the market.  The press into the UP was the "tell" for whether or not the market was going to follow through on the transitional signal.  The STRONG BAR BREAKOUT above the UP was a solid psychological signal that confirmed the LONG opportunity from the UP.  The expectation was for a pop up to the UT2 and the explosive move today allowed traders to stay in the trade all the way up to the UT3 resistance level.  By realizing the positive momentum had staying power after holding above the UP on the retest, traders were able to get long the market on either the initial BREAKOUT from the UP or the retest of the UP.  The market maintained positive structure throughout the entirety of the trade and allowed traders to profit on the explosive upside move, that eventually corrected and closed the session just about flat on the day.

CANADIAN DOLLAR

Today's MARKET STATE CANADIAN DOLLAR **BEAR TREND CORRECTION**


- Technically the MKT is on edge and flirting with a release. The MKT has produced a big negative signal and any positive corrective action is expected to be short-lived. Any held strength is a sign that the trade will turn digestive.
- On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below the previous session's high point. DIR and DP BREAKOUT may need to be "worked" as the MKT is on edge and will be emotional, producing some starts and stops before it drops.
- On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off major support levels as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies. BREAKOUT strategies above the previous session high are a long shot, so risk less and go for more. Any DIR or DP FADE should have confirmation and is not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for CD

Wrap Up

In a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION market state, traders should look to get short the market aggressively from below the R Level at the UT1.  After finding support at the DT1 following the early morning breakout from the DP, the market played host to a sharp corrective rally that tested the upside pivot.  This presented a PERFECT opportunity for traders to get short the market with a SELL UP FADE strategy.  After the market failed from our UP resistance pivot, a selling opportunity was again presented at the DIR in the form of the SELL CR BREAKOUT strategy.  After the early morning breach of the DP, the market retested the DIR and allowed traders to enter short, or add to their short position. Finally, the market, once again, broke out below the DP offering traders a THIRD short entry point with the SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy.  Having three different entry signals presented, the market proceeded to sell of sharply and reward the short positions.  After digesting a bit at the DT1, the market fell sharply through our initial target at the DT2 and made it all the way to our third support target at the DT3, allowing traders to take profits on the shorts.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

Today's MARKET STATE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR **BEAR TREND CORRECTION**

- Technically the MKT momentum is counter trend and will need a strong showing to overcome the underlying negative threat.
- On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies off the UP or near the previous session or move high will work best. DIR or DP BREAKOUT should just go. A better option is to FADE positive reactions against the DIR after a negative signal.
- On the BUY side accept FADE and BREAKOUT strategies. BREAKOUT should expect some "starts and stops" The trade is corrective and sharp positive surges can be erased in a hurry.  FADE will work if the corrective state is going to continue.  REVERSAL strategies are a lower probability as a break in structure should be considered a potential negative shift in momentum.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DA

Wrap Up

Not sold on the idea of Strategy-Based Trading?  Today's trading session in the AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR futures market should silence the critics.  Identifying the technical state of the market is the single most important step a successful trader must do before attempting to trade.  After the unique market environment has been established, structural inflection pivots must then be identified.  From here, traders can execute trading strategies that are optimal for the given market environment.  Today the AUSSIE DOLLAR was in a BEAR TREND CORRECTION market state.  This is a unique market environment as the market has produced a POSITIVE signal in an underlying BEAR market environment.  As a result, the expectation is for a NON TREND type session.  So now we have the market environment, the market structure is given to us through the Pricemap and based off of the BEAR TREND CORRECTION environment, we know which strategies we are looking to execute.  The final piece?  Market TACTICS.  By identifying this market as a NON TREND market type, traders should look to use momentum oscillators to confirm a trading opportunity.  Sure enough, right around 9:30 am CT the market bottomed at our expected level of SUPPORT (DP) and put in a BULLISH DIVERGENCE signal in the RSI.  We know that a corrective rally is a possibility in this market state and where better to start that rally than off our key level of support for the session.  At approx. 9:30 am CT, traders were given the BUY DP FADE opportunity with confirmation in the RSI indicator.  The market instantly bounced off the DP support pivot and did not stop until it touch the upper end of the Critical Range at the UP.  The UP - R "resistance band" marks the area that any "corrective action" is expected to exhaust at.  Sure enough, traders were able to close their longs and reverse short the market at the UP for another profitable ride back down to the DIR.  Today's trading session in the DA highlights, once again, the importance of identifying market STATE, STRUCTURE and STRATEGY.  Add to this the confirmation signals from market TACTICS and the result...HIGH-PROBABILITY TRADING.

DAX INDEX

Today's MARKET STATE DAX INDEX **BULL TREND**

- Technically the MKT is in a positive posture and as long as it continues to hold structure, further gains should be expected.  If the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long.
- On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight.  REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DAX

Wrap Up

Market STRUCTURE was the key today in identifying the opportunity in the DAX futures market as the early morning sell-off gave traders an opportunity to get long from the expected support pivot.  At 8 am CT the market found structural SUPPORT at the lower extreme of the Critical Range (DP).  This allowed traders the opportunity to get long the DAX from the support pivot at the DP.  This level proved to be the low of the session as the market bounced off this support pivot, and continued to rally throughout the morning session.  The market build positive structure after bottoming at the DP and allowed traders to stay in the position up to the DIR.  By identifying the key inflection pivots in the DAX index, JS Traders were able to anticipate the opportunity at the DP and capitalize on it.

SWISS FRANC

Today's MARKET STATE SWISS FRANC **BEAR TREND DIGESTION**

- The MKT is in a difficult sideways trade with an underlying negative tone. On the SELL side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid with the expectation that the underlying negative momentum is going to reassert itself. Work any UP FADE or REVERSAL strategies within the digestive range, covering any position near the DP.
- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal against the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any FADE trades should get confirmation or a negative exhaustion or turning point signal before executing.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SF

Wrap Up

In a BEAR TREND DIGESTION signature market state, the sentiment is NEGATIVE below the R Level with the expectation for a negatively skewed digestive trading session.  The market tested the major support pivot at the DP around 1:30 am CT, illustrating that the market was respecting this level.  After bottoming at the DP, the market rallied back up to the DIR where it put in a BEARISH DIVERGENCE signal in the RSI.  Since this is a DIGESTIVE signature state, the RSI momentum oscillator will be the OPTIMAL TACTIC for confirmation of the trade.  Sure enough, the BEARISH signal in the RSI signaled JS Traders to get short the market on the pullback to the DIR and ride the bearish pressure downward.  For traders who missed the opportunity at 5:45 am CT from the DIR, another SELL opportunity was given when the market broke down from the DP support pivot on a "strong bar", indicating the overwhelming selling pressure.  The market continued to build negative structure down to the second major support pivot at the DT1 where it stabilized for the remainder of the session.

NATURAL GAS

Today's MARKET STATE NATURAL GAS **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

- The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult "choppy" trade. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade.  UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.
- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for NG

Wrap Up

A breakdown from the KEY INFLECTION pivot at the DP R level today in the NATURAL GAS futures market signaled traders to ride the negative momentum with a SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy targeting the DT2.  With confirmation from the MOVING AVERAGE TACTIC (optimal hedge tactic), traders were able to trade WITH the negative momentum and get short from the DP.  After breaching this significant level of support, the market sold off sharply before finally stabilizing at our profit objective, the DT2.  Although the expectation coming into the session was for a NEUTRAL session trading between the Critical Range, the negative structure throughout the morning session was a "red flag" alerting traders to the possibility of the downward directional move.

BRITISH POUND

Today's MARKET STATE BRITISH POUND **BEAR TREND ACCELERATION**

- The MKT is vulnerable to the offer and threatening fresh losses. On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below the previous session’s high point. DIR and DP BREAKOUT strategies should just "go", so do not risk much. UP FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any momentum shift should be considered a potential positive corrective turn.
- On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off major support levels as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies and opportunities to SELL into and FADE. BREAKOUT strategies above the previous session high are a long shot, so risk less and go for more. Any DP FADE should have confirmation and is not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact. After a break in the negative structure is confirmed, support levels can be used for short-term reactions using aggressive position management.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for BP

Wrap Up

Identifying the KEY STRUCTURAL levels in the BRITISH POUND futures market had traders shorting the currency from the expected level of RESISTANCE.  In a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION market state, the expectation is for the market to maintain aggressive negative structure, building lower lows and lower highs.  When the market rallied above the *1.5239 level early morning, the aggressive signal was negated; however, the market remained bearish BELOW the sentiment bias, represented by the R Level.  The R Level at the minor level above the UP created a "resistance zone" with the UP being the expected MAJOR level of resistance.  Our first sell opportunity was given at 4:30 am CT when then market put in an OVERBOUGHT signal in the RSI at our KEY RESISTANCE PIVOT (UP).  Traders were able to short the market from the UP and ride the trade down to the DIR.  After bottoming about 12 tics above the expected level of SUPPORT at the DP, the market again tested the RESISTANCE PIVOT at the UP.  A double top was put in right at our major level of resistance with a SLIGHT bearish divergence signal with the 7:45 am CT top, once again allowing traders to enter the market from the short side.  As anticipated, the market sold back off to the DIR and allowed traders to take profits on the position.

S&P 500

Today's MARKET STATE S&P 500 **BULL TREND**


- The MKT has a firm tone and as long as the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long. On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight.  REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SP

Wrap Up

There was MAJOR opportunity for profits today in the S&P 500 futures market trading the JS PRICEMAP.  In a BULL TREND market environment, the expectation is for a continuation of the positive momentum and trader should look to get long the market aggressively ABOVE the R Level (@ DIR).  Just before 6:00 am CT, the market gave traders the first BUY opportunity of the session from the DIR R inflection pivot.  This is the HIGHEST risk-reward entry point for the session.  This trade turned profitable right away as the market rallied sharply off the low and eventually produced ANOTHER BUY entry signal at 8:30 am CT.  This BUY UP BREAKOUT strategy was in-line with our sentiment bias and market environment.  Also, the MOVING AVERAGE TACTIC, which is most reliable in trending market states, was in agreement with the buy signal.  This confluence of signals created a HIGH PROBABILITY trading opportunity in the S&P 500 market,  Traders were able to get on board the substantial rally and ride the momentum all the way up to the expected profit target at the UT2.

NATURAL GAS

Today's MARKET STATE NATURAL GAS **BEAR TREND**


- Technically the MKT is vulnerable to the offer. On the SELL side accept all BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL signals. The MKT is on edge and any negative signal, especially below the previous session high, is an opportunity. Anticipate a price "zone" around a major resistance point to FADE. Have a plan and be ready. If your stop gets hit and the MKT does not immediately follow through, consider re-entering, even doubling up if there is structure to define low risk.
- On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major support levels but preferably after an emotional sell off. This is an aggressive strategy and any profits should be realized at the previous support failure points. Avoid DP FADE BUYS even with confirmation, as this is more likely a plateau for a BREAKOUT SELL strategy. UP BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but do have a better chance of succeeding than a DP FADE.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for NG

Wrap Up

JS Traders were given a nice opportunity to sell the corrective rally in the NATURAL GAS futures market today.  In a BEAR TREND market state with the R Level at the minor level above the UP, the probability was to the downside with any corrective rally into the UP-R resistance band presenting a valid selling opportunity.  Around 9:15 am CT the market rally stalled at our expected level of resistance, allowing traders to execute a SELL UP FADE strategy.  The market respected this key structural pivot and spent the rest of the session probing lower, eventually giving traders the opportunity to net profits on the short position at the DIR.

GOLD

Today's MARKET STATE GOLD **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

- The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult "choppy" trade. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade.  UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.
- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.

 

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for GC

 

Wrap Up

A nice day for JS GOLD Traders as the market showed its hand early and performed to expectations.  In a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state, the expectation is for a sideways trade within the CRITICAL RANGE; however, with the R Level at the DIR, this changes the expectation of the state.  The R at the DIR signals to traders that this market is "all wound up" and has the potential to create a directional move in either direction.  The market began to build negative structure from the DIR at 2 am CT, creating lower highs and lower lows as it progressed toward the DP.  After digesting  at the DP for 4-5:30 am CT, the market gave traders the SELL DP BREAKOUT opportunity around 5:30 am CT with confirmation from the MOVING AVERAGE TACTIC.  The optimal profit objective on this strategy is the DT2, which was attained with ease.  Notice how the market maintained NEGATIVE structure throughout the entire trade allowing traders to hold onto their shorts with confidence.  A good way to end the week on a profitable short from the DP BREAKOUT signal!

SWISS FRANC

Today's MARKET STATE SWISS FRANC **BEAR TREND**

- Technically the MKT is "on the fence" with the potential to go in either direction or nowhere. Pick your points and have no expectations, as the likelihood of this MKT trading sideways is high.
- On the SELL side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The pivotal nature of the session does have the potential to be the starting point for a new move. However, the probability of any trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extreme.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The MKT is "on the fence" and does have the potential to be the beginning of a new trend move. The probability of a new trend move is low. However, any price trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extremes.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SF

Wrap Up

A great day for JS Traders in the SWISS FRANC currency futures today!  In a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state with the R Level at the DIR, the market is "wound up" and has the potential to be the start of a new directional move.  Knowing full well that the possibility of a new trend move is likely, the MOVING AVERAGE crossover / "band" TACTIC is the optimal tactic to confirm a Critical Range breakout.  After failing from the DIR just after 8:00 am CT, the market began to decline sharply.  The momentum was clearly to the downside, and at 8:30 am CT traders were given a SELL DP BREAKOUT signal with confirmation in the moving averages.  The profit objective on this trade is the DT2; however, the momentum behind this significant decline took prices all the way down to the DT3 before eventually finding support.  By understanding the market environment and the key inflection pivots within the market, our traders were able to catch the big break in the SWISS FRANC and realize serious profits.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

Today's MARKET STATE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR **BEAR TREND**


- The MKT is in a soft neutral position. On the SELL side UP REVERSAL and FADE strategies with confirmation will be a better option over downside Breakouts, as selling into corrective reactions is the best position. The MKT remains negative but be patient as to not get caught FADING a corrective rise all the way up. DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid opportunities but look to take profits on emotional drops versus getting trail stopped on corrective pull backs.
- On the BUY side DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies should be looked at as a "one-shot" deal. Either the MKT railroads higher in a steady climb or it’s just a head fake to sell. If you get on a steady advance, ride it until structure is broken. DP and DT1 REVERSAL strategies are valid, as the neutral tone has the potential to produce false signals in either direction.  Avoid DP FADE BUYS as the negative trend remains in force.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DA

Wrap Up

With an MC Value of -4 and the R Level at the minor level above the UP, the AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR has produced a BEAR TREND market state with a resistance "band" from the UP - R.  Any corrective price action up to this level is expected to exhaust here and provide traders with an opportunity to capitalize via a short position.  At 7:30 am CT, traders were given a SELL UP FADE opportunity at our expected major level of resistance, the UP.  This trade turned profitable immediately and gave traders an opportunity to take profits on the position at 9:30 am CT, when the market came to within a few tics of the DIR.  The market churned sideways in a tight range before eventually taking out the DIR and closing below the 1.0146 level.

S&P 500

Today's MARKET STATE S&P 500 **BULL TREND DIGESTION**

- Technically the MKT is in a DIGESTIVE BULL TREND with a slight positive tone. The underlying tone is positive but opportunity is on both sides of the MKT today.
- On the SELL side accept FADE and REVERSAL signals at the UP and +c only. The underlying momentum is up, so keep position management and profit targets aggressive on any counter trend trades. Avoid DP BREAKOUT strategies as follow through in either direction is not expected.
- On the BUY side accept FADE and REVERSAL strategies off the DP with the expectation that any test may need to build a base before it can mount a sustained positive push. UP BREAKOUT strategies should be used as a signal for a "pullback" BUY DIR FADE strategy.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SP

Wrap Up

Today the S&P 500 was in one of JS Services unique SIGNATURE STATES, BULL TREND DIGESTION.  In this market state, opportunity exists on BOTH sides of the market as the market is "digesting" the previous move.  Sentiment remains + above the DP; however, the Critical Range extremes (UP-DP) both offer potential entry points for the session.  The UP is our expected area of major resistance and should mark the "lid" on any price advance if the digestive market state is going to play out.  As it so happened, the RSI was showing a slight divergence with price, offering a "tell" to accept the SELL UP FADE strategy at 9 am CT from our resistance level.  The mark sold off immediately down to the DIR, giving traders an opportunity to take profits on the counter-trend opportunity.