Tuesday, October 30, 2012

S&P 500

Today's MARKET STATE for S&P 500: **BEAR TREND DIGESTION**
 
-Technically the MKT is leaning lower but has yet to commit to a new negative move.  On the SELL side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid with the expectation that the underlying negative momentum is going to reassert itself.  Work any UP FADE or REVERSAL strategies within the digestive range, covering any position near the DP.  DIR and DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid, however, they may be choppy and more laborious.  The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.
- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal against the DIR.  DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as “sloppy” trading conditions are expected.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for S&P 500




Wrap Up
Today in the S&P 500 market, we had a MC Value of -5 and a BEAR TREND DIGESTION Market State.  This is a unique state because we remain in an underlying bear trend; however, we could be in for more of a digestive trade for the session.  Due to the early close of the S&P 500, we published our levels early so that traders could take advantage of the overnight session.  Our market commentary tells us that if we are going to look to BUY this market, that DP REVERSALs are recommended over FADEs as a sloppy trading environment is anticipated.  Just after 10:30 last night, we have a breakdown from the DP, and a quick correction back into the Critical Range, allowing us to execute a BUY DP REVERSAL.  The market continued making higher move highs and higher move lows, confirming that we were on the correct side of the market.  The trade eventually made it all the way up to our Upside Pivot (UP) just before the early close this morning.

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