Wednesday, August 15, 2012

CANADIAN DOLLAR

Today's MARKET STATE for CD: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**
- Technically the MKT is "on the fence" with the potential to go in either direction or nowhere. Pick your points and have no expectations, as the likelihood of this MKT trading sideways is high.
- On the SELL side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The pivotal nature of the session does have the potential to be the starting point for a new move. However, the probability of any trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extreme.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The MKT is "on the fence" and does have the potential to be the beginning of a new trend move. The probability of a new trend move is low. However, any price trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extremes.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for CD













Wrap Up
- Today in the CANADIAN DOLLAR we are reminded of the important role that the Critical Range plays in the JS Price Map.  In a NEUTRAL DIGESTIVE state, our expectation is for the price action to oscillate within the critical range, and the likelihood of a new trend emerging is low.  With the R at the minor level below the DP, the analyst is telling the trader that price action is expected to stay within the Critical Range; however, there is a chance that a sell off could reach as far down as the minor level (R Level).  In a sense, the analyst is expanding the Critical Range down to the R Level.  The market fell in the early morning session, touched the DP at 3 A.M. and provided us an opportunity for a BUY DP FADE above the R Level.  Remember, our expectation in a NEUTRAL DIGESTIVE state is for a sideways trading environment within the Critical Range.  Sure enough, the market rallied steadily throughout the day, building positive structure and respecting the trading range.  Shortly after 11 A.M. the rally stalled out at the UP, exactly where we expected it to, and gave us an opportunity to realize profits.

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