Monday, July 23, 2012

GOLD

Today's MARKET STATE for GOLD: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION **

- The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult "choppy" trade. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade.  UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.
- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for GC




Wrap Up
-The R Level in the Gold price map worked to perfection today.  The market was in a "Neutral Digestion" state, so our expectation is for a sideways trade within the Critical Range.  With that being said, the placement of the R level at the minor level below the DP is significant.  By doing this, the analyst is telling the trader that the digestive range has been extended, and any negative reaction is capable of taking prices down to the R level.  In this market state, we recommend a "Buy DP Reversal" strategy, which is in agreement with the Sentiment Bias for the day (R Level).  The price dropped down to the R level around 7:30 A.M., immediately reacted back to the DP, retested the R level and then proceeded to rally back through the DP around 8:00, presenting the "Buy DP Reversal" strategy which was validated by the placement of the R below the DP.  From here price rose steadily throughout the morning, testing the DIR a little after 11:00 A.M.  Since our market state is calling for a digestive trading day, profits should be taken sooner rather than later, and the move up to the DIR presented the trader with an opportunity to take profits on a well-executed trade.