Tuesday, May 18, 2010

NAT GAS Futures - TRYING TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE


Technically the MKT has produced a major positive technical signal which remains in play with all trading above the 4.252 Inflection Pivot. A higher close today will confirm the signal and have the potential to influence the trade for the next 3-8 days.

On the SELL side BREAKOUT strategies below 4.252 are very aggressive and should be executed higher than lower. Expectations should be that yesterday's positive signal was exhaustive and a sharply lower reversal signal is due. Don't take the signal otherwise as any setback should be looked at as a buy opportunity. If the MKT is going to turn sour, it should be quick and relentless. Avoid FADE strategies against 4.492 as the MKT has just produced a major buy signal and fresh gains are expected. REVERSAL strategies as well are not recommended, as any resistance level violation that cannot be held is more likely a squeeze for the longs, which can quickly turn positive. The SELL side today is a dangerous place to be.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is aggressively bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, leverage up using the squeeze low as a stop, expecting a quick reaction back above your original entry. If so stay with the position with the expectation of a play for new move highs. Look for pportunity off 4.252, 4.372 and 4.492.

Note: The MKT has produced a significant positive technical signal that has the potential to produce a fundamental shift in sentiment. Expectations are for steady gains after at most, one pullback. A laborious trade and the MKT may wait till the end of the session to make its move.

JS

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