MKTstate: 05/01/2010

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

CRUDE OIL Futures - CORRECTIVE SIGNAL

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a big positive signal against a negative trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT, however the positive signal will remain in play above the 70.23 Inflection Pivot.

On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the negative momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies at the 72.17 resistance pivot, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the integrity of the resistance before executing a sale against it. BREAKOUT strategies below 70.23 can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a negative posture. If not a better approach would be to FADE a positive "squeeze" reaction after a negative breakdown signal against the 71.20 Directional as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

On the BUY side avoid FADE strategies off 70.23 until after the previous session high point or major resistance level has been taken out to confirm a positive shift in momentum. REVERSAL strategies should be avoided as any negative signal is more likely an indication that the underlying trend is going to resume. BUY BREAKOUT strategies above 72.17 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE short at resistance targets. The trade is counter trend so avoid any positive commitments.

Note: The MKT has produced a big technical signal against the current trend. Be aware that the positive action may be a 1-day event with the negative trend quickly re-establishing itself. If the MKT is really going to turn it should remain firm and not look back.

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Tuesday, May 25, 2010

5yr T-Note Futures - Sentiment Shift

The MKT is pressing into an exhaustive extreme and is vulnerable to a corrective trade. Respect positive structure but be ready to roll with any negative turn.

Key off the 117-215 Inflection Pivot today for an indication of the session tone. If the MKT is going to avoid a sentiment shift it will maintain a trade above here. If not a sharp negative shift is expected.

On the Sell side REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points will work best as any unsustained positive signal is expected to provide a sharp negative reaction. FADE strategies off the 118-017 resistance inflection pivot is valid but will work better after the 2nd or 3rd press into an area. BREAKOUT strategies below 117-215 are a lower probability but do have the potential to provide an emotional release.

On the Buy side FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended off 117-215, especially if the previous session low point remains intact. BREAKOUT strategies above 118-017 should hold structure after a resistance breach if they are going to follow through. Any break in momentum and the market will be vulnerable to drop back into a digestive trade.

Note: The MKT has stalled and may need a session or two to catch its breath or it already has. Keep an open mind and let the MKT tell you was is.

Monday, May 24, 2010

EURUSD Forex - EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL TRANSITION with sentiment leaning negative and flirting with a negative turn. Opportunity exists on both sides of the equation however the threat of an acceleration of the negative momentum outweighs the buy side if the integrity of the previous session high remains intact.

Key off the 12297 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session tone. If the MKT is going to remain stable it will not do much trading below here. If so the negative momentum is expected to dominate.

On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies with the expectation that the current positive to negative transition will continue. Keep aggressive position management on BREAKOUT strategies below 12297 as the MKT is still in the neutral zone and has yet to commit to a new trend. A more conservative strategy would be to wait for positive reactions after a negative signal to FADE into against 12373. The trade should be fluid with the MKT immediately giving background after any positive squeeze. 12449 is the high point for any positive squeeze if the negative signal is going to play out and FADE and REVERSAL signals should be excepted.

On the BUY side avoid FADE strategies of the 12297 support area until after the previous session high point or major resistance has been taken out to confirm a break in momentum. Until then a better opportunity will be a REVERSAL strategy but only off 12297. This is a one shot trade using a low risk big profit target criteria. The idea is that the transition trade is over and a positive shift back into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION is expected. BUY BREAKOUT strategies above 12449 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should use the same aggressive position management as a REVERSAL. Risk less go for more.

Note: The MKT is trying to shift from a positive to a negative trend position. False starts and stops should be expected and position management adjustment anticipated, as quick momentum turns are the norm in this technical environment.

DAX Futures - MIXED SIGNALS

Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION position and is vulnerable to the offer. Any positive corrective action is expected to be short lived with only one upside "stop squeeze" if the negative moemtnum is going to play out. Any held strength and repeated probe higher is a sign that the trade will turn digestive. This does not take away from the negative bias but does limit the profit potential for any new sales in the session.

Key off the 5949 Inflection Pivot today. This is the top the market's BEAR TREND structure and the high point for any upside squeeze if the negative signal is going to retain its influence.

On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below the 5949 level. BREAKOUT strategies below 5812.5 should just "go", so do not risk much. FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies at 5881 and 5949 as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any momentum shift should be considered a potential positive corrective turn.

On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off major support levels as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies and opportunities to SELL into and FADE. BREAKOUT strategies above 5881 and 5949 are a long shot, so risk less and go for more. Any BUY FADE off the 5812.5 support pivot should have confirmation and are not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact. After a break in the negative structure confirmed support levels can be used for short term reactions using aggressive position management.

Note: The MKT is in an aggressive sell posture. If the previous session high is intact its just a matter of time before the sellers try to overwhelm the MKT. Look for excuses to get short. If the previous session high is breached opportunity will be on both sides of the MKT, however the bias still rests with the Bears.

Thursday, May 20, 2010

RUSSELL 2000 Futures - SET TO SWING

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL DIGESTIVE position with a slight negative bias. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT but "choppy" sideways trading conditions should be expected.

Key off the 660.30 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session tone. This is the high point for any positive action if the contract is going to remain vulnerable to the offer.

On the SELL side BREAKOUT strategies below 627.90 are valid but should expect a laborious trade. Work any position, covering on emotional sell-offs and re-entering on any sharp pullbacks. Expect a choppy trade and be aggressive on minimizing profit give-back. FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended off major resistance levels. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.

On the BUY side avoid BREAKOUT strategies above 660.30 but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at 644.10. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies off major support inflection points as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any FADE trades at the 627.90 support pivot should get confirmation or a negative exhaustion or turning point signal before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.

Note: The MKT is in neutral and is more likely to go nowhere fast. Don't get stubborn however if the MKT starts to get into trend mode as the contract may just be expanding its digestive parameters producing a one way trade into the close and new extreme.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

GOLD Futures - HOW'S THAT LEVERAGE FEEL NOW?

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a negative signal against a positive trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT.

Key off the 1212.80 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session tone. Below here yesterday's negative signal remains in play.

On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies against 1207.2 and 1212.8 until after the previous session low point or major support level has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. Until then a better opportunity will be a REVERSAL strategy but only off the 1st major resistance level. This is a one shot trade using a low risk big profit target criteria. The idea is that if the MKT is going to follow through on its negative signal any strength is just a "head fake " before it follows through. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 1185.6 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE long at support targets. The trade is corrective and the underlying positive tone must be respected.

On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies off the 1185.6 support pivot, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. BREAKOUT strategies above 1212.8 can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a positive posture with the expectation that the Bull Trend is going to resume. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction after a positive breakout signal at 1196.9 as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

Note: The MKT is in a corrective position with the potential to move in either direction. Keep your opinions to themselves and focus on what the MKT is telling you it wants to do. Don't fight it, roll with it.

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

NAT GAS Futures - TRYING TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE

Technically the MKT has produced a major positive technical signal which remains in play with all trading above the 4.252 Inflection Pivot. A higher close today will confirm the signal and have the potential to influence the trade for the next 3-8 days.

On the SELL side BREAKOUT strategies below 4.252 are very aggressive and should be executed higher than lower. Expectations should be that yesterday's positive signal was exhaustive and a sharply lower reversal signal is due. Don't take the signal otherwise as any setback should be looked at as a buy opportunity. If the MKT is going to turn sour, it should be quick and relentless. Avoid FADE strategies against 4.492 as the MKT has just produced a major buy signal and fresh gains are expected. REVERSAL strategies as well are not recommended, as any resistance level violation that cannot be held is more likely a squeeze for the longs, which can quickly turn positive. The SELL side today is a dangerous place to be.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is aggressively bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, leverage up using the squeeze low as a stop, expecting a quick reaction back above your original entry. If so stay with the position with the expectation of a play for new move highs. Look for pportunity off 4.252, 4.372 and 4.492.

Note: The MKT has produced a significant positive technical signal that has the potential to produce a fundamental shift in sentiment. Expectations are for steady gains after at most, one pullback. A laborious trade and the MKT may wait till the end of the session to make its move.

Monday, May 17, 2010

British Pound Futures - EXTENDED

Technically the MKT has produce a negative signal into the EXTREME of a BEAR TREND move and will need to hold structure below the 14631 Inflection Pivot if it is going to maintain an aggressive sell posture. Don't press it. Although the MKT is vulnerable a break in momentum has the potential to spark a sharp corrective rally.

On the SELL side downside BREAKOUT strategies below 14359 are valid and should continue to hold negative structure if they are going to extend. Get in to these trades sooner (higher) than later (lower) as new weakness is expected to be stop and go. A more conservative strategy is to FADE a positive reaction after a negative breakdown signal against the 14495 Directional Pivot and even better to wait for a negative REVERSAL off this corrective rise rather than stepping in front of it. FADE and REVERSAL are recommended at the 14631 and 14916 resistance levels especially after a sharp corrective rise. The MKT is negative but is also extended and the probability of a corrective rise is high. Wait for an exhaustive signals or confirmation to jump on.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT strategies above 14631 should have aggressive trail stops and tighter profit targets at 14746 and 14916. There is a good chance for a corrective turn but profit targets and position management should be tight as this is more likely a rally to sell. If you get on, ride it until structure is broken and then look to go the other way. BUY REVERSAL strategies will provide opportunity off of lower support inflections but will work best after a sharp trade lower through major support. Look for opportunity at 14359 and the 14245 and 14116 support levels. Expectations are for no follow through not a reversal of sentiment. Keep risk management and profit targets tight to reduce giveback as the underlying technical foundation today is negative. Avoid FADE BUYS as the negative trend remains enforce with sell FADE opportunities the better place to step out.

Note: Just because the MKT is extended does not mean it cannot get more extended. Any long ideas should wait for a signal don't force one.

Saturday, May 15, 2010

SP500 Futures - TASTE TEST

Technical indicators shifted negated after Friday's sell off but the underlying technical structure remains positive above 1121.50. As long as the June'10 contract is above this price point the sentiment bias is to the upside. A breach of the 1143.50 resistance pivot will confirm this targeting 1197 on the next reaction higher.

Key off the 1132.50 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the sessions immediate tone. Use this as an "over under" number today. Above here the MKT will be leaning positive and below negative with 1143.50 and 1121.50 the neutral Critical Range extremes. Only a breach of either extreme will signal the next trend move.

Expectations are for any positive move to be more of a "railroad" trade with sellers "scaling in" feeding a one way trade with only minor reactions.

A break under 1121.50 is expected to be more emotional with sharp sell-offs followed by positive price squeezes. As long as the MKT is below 1121.50 the potential for a release will remain a threat.

The price points presented define the behavioral shifts in market sentiment. Use them as an overlay to your outlook.

Good Trading

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Thursday, May 13, 2010

WHEAT N'10 - SENTIMENT SHIFT

Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION and flirting with the lower extreme. The MKT has produced a big negative signal and any positive corrective action is expected to be short lived with only one upside "stop sweep" if the negative moemtnum is going to play out. Any held strength and repeated probe higher is a sign that the trade will turn digestive. This does not take away from the negative bias but does limit the profit potential for any new sales in the session.

Key off the 495-6 Inflection Pivot as the high point fo rany corrective squeeze. Sell strength below here.

On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below the previous sessions high point and against 495-6. BREAKOUT strategies below 476-2 may need to be "worked" as the MKT is on edge and will be emotional, producing some starts and stops before it drops. FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies against 489-2 and 495-26as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any momentum shift should be considered a potential positive corrective turn.

On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off major support levels as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies and opportunities to SELL into and FADE. BREAKOUT strategies above 489-2 above the previous session high are a long shot, so risk less and go for more. Any BUY FADE off the 476-2 support pivot should have confirmation and are not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact. After a break in the negative structure confirmed support levels can be used for short term reactions using aggressive position management.

Note: The MKT is on edge and is vulnerable to a big drop. If the previous session high is intact its just a matter of time before the sellers try to overwhelm the MKT. Look for excuses to get short. If the previous session high is breached opportunity will be on both sides of the MKT, however the bias still rests with the Bears.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

S&P Mid Cap 400 Index - PROVE IT

Technically the MKT is in a BULL TREND ACCELERATION posture and has produced a big positive signal. The MKT is in "play" and aggressive action is expected off of technical signals. Anticipate opportunity and position management adjustments, as quick price action is likely.

Key off the 796.20 Inflection Pivot as the low point for any pull-back squeeze and the 818.10 resistance pivot as a trigger to a further gains.

On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off 818.10 and the 832.70 resistance levels. Expectations should be for an immediate exhaustive turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area. A gradual decline folowing a reversal signal and it more likely just a pause before another round of buying, so in either scenerio keep position management tight. Avoid SELL FADE strategies even with confirmation, as this is more likely a lid for a BREAKOUT BUY strategy. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 803.50 are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against Directional reisstance at 810.80.

On the BUY side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies above the previous sessions low point. BREAKOUT strategies abive 818.10 should just "go", so do not risk much. Be wary of these strategies early in the session and look to exit on the 1st break in strucutre. BUY FADE strategies at 803.50 and 796.20 are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift. The MKT is aggressively bid which should keep pace throughout the session if the TREND ACCELERATION forecast is going to play out.

Note: The worst-case scenario for a MKT in this technical position is to go higher early in the session and then break all day. Be alert to recognize this. If you have > 3 loser long trades consider taking the next sell signal anticipating a corrective turn. Remember in this technical position if the MKT is going higher it should just go. If not there is the potential for a corrective break or digestive trading environment.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

EURGBP - NOT SO FAST

Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND but in a DIGESTIVE position. The probability is to the downside but there is opportunity on both sides of the MKT.

Key off the 8539 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session tone with 8647 the high point for any upside squeeze.

On the SELL side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid with the expectation that the underlying negative momentum is going to reassert itself. Work any FADE or REVERSAL strategies within the digetive range, covering any position near the extremes. BREAKOUT strategies are valid however they may be choppy and more laborious. Work any position, covering on emotional sell-offs and re-entering on any sharp pullbacks. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.

On the BUY side avoid BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies off major support inflection points as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as the underlying negative tone can quickly reassurt itself and erase profits.

Note: The MKT has an underlying negative posture but there is the potential for a positive transitional move. Don't get stubborn if the MKT starts to get into trend mode in either direction as the contract may just be expanding its digestive parameters producing a one way trade into the close and new extreme.

Monday, May 10, 2010

EURUSD - FRESH MEAT

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a positive signal against a negative trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT however the threat of the return of the negative momentum must be respected as a good probability with all trading below the 12946 Inflection Pivot.

On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the negative momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE at the 12819 and 12946 levels, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to its integrity before executing a short sale against it. BREAKOUT strategies below the 12692 support pivot can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a negative posture with the expectation that the negative trend is going to resume. If not a better approach would be to FADE a positive "squeeze" reaction against 12819 after a negative breakdown as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

On the BUY side avoid FADE strategies off 12692 until after the previous session high point or major resistance has been taken out to confirm a break in momentum. Until then a better opportunity will be a REVERSAL strategy but only off the 1st major support level. This is a one shot trade using a low risk big profit target criteria. The idea is that if the MKT is going to follow through on its CORRECTIVE signal any weakness is just a "head fake " before it follows through. BUY BREAKOUT strategies above 12946 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE short at resistance targets. The trade is corrective and the eventual play is a resumption of the negative momentum.

Note: The MKT is in a corrective position with the potential to produce a sharp short covering rally, a messy sideways digest or a resumption of the negative trend. Keep your opinions to themselves and focus on what the MKT is telling you it wants to do. Don't fight it, roll with it. If you have > 3 losses consider reversing strategy.

JS

Join our "LIVE" TRADE ROOM and learn JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach using CLEARBOX automated strategies! For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

Thursday, May 6, 2010

10YR T-NOTE Futures - BULL TREND EXTREME

** BULL TREND EXTREME **- Technically the MKT is at the positive extreme and is flirting with an exhaustive turn. Keep your dancing shoes on this Technical State has the potential to get a little wild.

Key off the 120-06 Inflection Pivot today for an indication of the session tone. All trading below here keeps the contract vulnerable to a retreat.

On the SELL side accept REVERSAL strategies off 120-25 and 121-215 resistance levels should work on the initial break in momentum if they are going to. BREAKOUT strategies below 119-19 are aggressive but do have the potential to be the start of a corrective turn, so look to get in early on the initial break in structure. Lock in any unrealized profit on these strategies, as the underlying momentum remains positive. 118-13 and 117-15 are the lower targets.

- On the BUY side accept FADE signals off the 119-00 and 118-13 major support levels after the 2nd or 3rd confirmation. The MKT is extended and may need to digest a bit before it produces a positive push. REVERSAL strategies are valid off all major support inflection points as well as the 119-19 support pivot, with the expectation that the underlying positive tone will try to assert itself. The outlook after a REVERSAL signal will be more firm digestive than positive trend. BREAKOUT strategies above 120-06 and 120-25 should just go, so keep stops and position management tight. If not the likelihood of a sideways trade developing is high.

Note: The MKT is extended and any push to new move highs is not expected to be sustained. Emotional trading conditions are expected.

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

USDJPY - CORRECTIVE SIGNAL = OPPORTUNITY

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a big negative signal against a positive trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT however the underlying positive tone will maintain the controls above the 9350 Inflection Pivot.

On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies against 9493 until after the previous session low point or major support level has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. REVERSAL strategies should be avoided as any positive signal is more likely an indication that the underlying trend is going to resume. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 9350 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE long at support targets. The trade is counter trend so avoid any negative commitments.

On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies at the 9350 level, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. BREAKOUT strategies above 9493 can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a positive posture. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction down to 9422 after a positive breakout signal above 9493 as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

Note: The MKT has produced a big technical signal against the current trend. Be aware that the negative action may be a 1-day event with the positive trend quickly re-establishing itself. If the MKT is really going to turn it should remain hard pressed and provide little or no relief.

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

SP500 - VULNERABLE

The SP500 broke out to the down shifting into a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION technical state. If the negative signal is going to follow through the Index will not do much if any trading above the 1173.75 Inflection Pivot.

This is the price point which will determine today's bias. Below here the pressure stays on high targeting 1156.50 and 1146.50 on any new weakness. Use caution. Although reactions are expected this sell off does have the potential to flush down to 1131.50.

A held trade above 1173.75 takes the edge off for a difficult trade up to 1183. If the MKT is going to fall back into a soft sideways trade any show of strength will fizzle here. If not a play for the 1202-1199 resistance band is the outlook. Expect no follow through.

Note: The MKT produced a major negative technical signal which should at least produce a new move low. If not it is an underlying sign of strength that will foreshadow a resumption of the underlying positive momentum targeting 1225.

Monday, May 3, 2010

10YR T-NOTE - SPIN CYCLE

Technically the MKT is in a DIGESTIVE BULL TREND with a slight negative tone. The MKT is searching for support so wait for a positive signal instead of trying to create one.

Key off the 117-085 Inflection Pivot today as this is the expected low point for any new weakness if the MKT is going to end the session in positive territory.

On the SELL side FADE and REVERSAL signals off the 117-295 resistance level are valid. The MKT has a soft tone and is expected to probe lower as long as the intra-day structure is negative. Keep position management and profit targets aggressive, as these trades are counter trend. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 117-085 are more aggressive, as follow through to the downside is not expected at this time.

On the BUY side accept REVERSAL strategies off the 117-085 and 116-300 support levels with the expectation that any signal has the potential to be the beginning of the next leg higher. BUY FADE strategies off 117-085 will need confirmation before they should be accepted. In addition any test may need to build a base before it can mount a sustained positive push, so expect a laborious trade. BREAKOUT strategies above 117-19 and the 117-295 resistance pivot are valid however the digestive trade will make FADE strategies off support on a "pullback" after a BREAKOUT signal a better opportunity.

Note: The MKT has any underlying positive tone but may probe lower to define its digestive range.

JS

Join our "LIVE" TRADE ROOM and learn JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach using CLEARBOX automated strategies! For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

Sunday, May 2, 2010

SP500 - TIME TO PLAY A CARD

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a big negative signal against a positive trend. If the negative signal is going to follow through it should do so from the get go and not look back. Any break in the negative structure is a signal that the positive trend will try to reassert itself.

Key off the 1187 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session tone.

On the SELL side FADE strategies should work on the initial test at 1187 and the 1194.25 resistance pivot and immediately turn the market lower. Repeated tests is a sign that the market will try to probe higher. REVERSAL strategies should be avoided as any positive signal is more likely an indication that the underlying trend is going to resume. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below the 1177.75 support pivot can be profitable but they are after a major negative signal and have the potential to be stop and go. The trade has the potential to be the beginning of a major sentiment shift if it turns sour.

On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies off the 1177.75 and 1169.50 support levels, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. BREAKOUT strategies above 1187 and the 1194.25 resistance pivot can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a positive posture. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction at 1187 after a positive breakout signal above 1194.25 as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.