The world is ready for a little fireworks today as we kick off volatility month. Watch the Interest Rates today for confirmation of an event. The 30yr T-Bond basis Dec'09 has a major resistance inflection pivot at 123-23 and the Dec'09 10yr T-Note resistance pivot is at120-070. If the long end of the curve is going to stall out they each will show signs of strain here. A sustained breach of resistance in both contracts have the potential to launch and put the rest of the world on its head.
In the Equities the Dec'09 SP500 can slip as low as 1011.50 without doing much damage to the MKTs underlying confidence. A held failure here and tings can get emotional with 994 and 977 targeted. A rise above the 1036.50 session Inflection Pivot will make yesterday's weakness look like a head fake and if the Interest Rates have rejected hard from their resistance it will be back to bidness as usual targeting 1063.
The Dec'09 EUROFX is set for a big range day and remains in a corrective trade below the 14667 Inflection Pivot. A break under 14499 and yesterday's negative momentum has the potential to accelerate with 14415 and 14247 the lower targets. A rise above 14667 and the buyers will look to take back lost ground in a hurry, putting the recent highs at 14844 in jeopardy.
Dec'09 GOLD is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE posture with 1005.8 the session Inflection Pivot. Draw a line here. Below this price the yellow metal is vulnerable to a drop down to 985.8-983.7 with the potential to go a low as 970.8. 933.3 is the current lower extreme. A rise above 1005.8 and the buyers will try to flex. If the interest is going to fizzle it will against 1015.8. A violation here and we could be in for the big one to the upside with 1033.9 and 1065.2 the initial targets.
Nov'09 NAT GAS is flirting with disaster. Key off the 4.553 Inflection Pivot for an indication for he session tone. Below here yesterday's BEAR TREND ACCELERATION signal keeps the controls with a failure from 4.388 confirming the signal targeting 4.035 on any negative follow through. A rise above 4.553 delays the inevitable for a difficult trade up to 4.716. If the aggressive sellers are going to return they will enter here. If not a positive shift into neutral is the outlook with 5.030 the upper digestive extreme.
Have a plan and use resting limits. Emotions are set to be tested. Stick with your structure.
Good Fortune.
JS
STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html
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