NATURAL GAS

Today's MARKET STATE NATURAL GAS **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

- The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult "choppy" trade. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade.  UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.
- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for NG

Wrap Up

A breakdown from the KEY INFLECTION pivot at the DP R level today in the NATURAL GAS futures market signaled traders to ride the negative momentum with a SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy targeting the DT2.  With confirmation from the MOVING AVERAGE TACTIC (optimal hedge tactic), traders were able to trade WITH the negative momentum and get short from the DP.  After breaching this significant level of support, the market sold off sharply before finally stabilizing at our profit objective, the DT2.  Although the expectation coming into the session was for a NEUTRAL session trading between the Critical Range, the negative structure throughout the morning session was a "red flag" alerting traders to the possibility of the downward directional move.

BRITISH POUND

Today's MARKET STATE BRITISH POUND **BEAR TREND ACCELERATION**

- The MKT is vulnerable to the offer and threatening fresh losses. On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below the previous session’s high point. DIR and DP BREAKOUT strategies should just "go", so do not risk much. UP FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any momentum shift should be considered a potential positive corrective turn.
- On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off major support levels as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies and opportunities to SELL into and FADE. BREAKOUT strategies above the previous session high are a long shot, so risk less and go for more. Any DP FADE should have confirmation and is not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact. After a break in the negative structure is confirmed, support levels can be used for short-term reactions using aggressive position management.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for BP

Wrap Up

Identifying the KEY STRUCTURAL levels in the BRITISH POUND futures market had traders shorting the currency from the expected level of RESISTANCE.  In a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION market state, the expectation is for the market to maintain aggressive negative structure, building lower lows and lower highs.  When the market rallied above the *1.5239 level early morning, the aggressive signal was negated; however, the market remained bearish BELOW the sentiment bias, represented by the R Level.  The R Level at the minor level above the UP created a "resistance zone" with the UP being the expected MAJOR level of resistance.  Our first sell opportunity was given at 4:30 am CT when then market put in an OVERBOUGHT signal in the RSI at our KEY RESISTANCE PIVOT (UP).  Traders were able to short the market from the UP and ride the trade down to the DIR.  After bottoming about 12 tics above the expected level of SUPPORT at the DP, the market again tested the RESISTANCE PIVOT at the UP.  A double top was put in right at our major level of resistance with a SLIGHT bearish divergence signal with the 7:45 am CT top, once again allowing traders to enter the market from the short side.  As anticipated, the market sold back off to the DIR and allowed traders to take profits on the position.

S&P 500

Today's MARKET STATE S&P 500 **BULL TREND**


- The MKT has a firm tone and as long as the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long. On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight.  REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SP

Wrap Up

There was MAJOR opportunity for profits today in the S&P 500 futures market trading the JS PRICEMAP.  In a BULL TREND market environment, the expectation is for a continuation of the positive momentum and trader should look to get long the market aggressively ABOVE the R Level (@ DIR).  Just before 6:00 am CT, the market gave traders the first BUY opportunity of the session from the DIR R inflection pivot.  This is the HIGHEST risk-reward entry point for the session.  This trade turned profitable right away as the market rallied sharply off the low and eventually produced ANOTHER BUY entry signal at 8:30 am CT.  This BUY UP BREAKOUT strategy was in-line with our sentiment bias and market environment.  Also, the MOVING AVERAGE TACTIC, which is most reliable in trending market states, was in agreement with the buy signal.  This confluence of signals created a HIGH PROBABILITY trading opportunity in the S&P 500 market,  Traders were able to get on board the substantial rally and ride the momentum all the way up to the expected profit target at the UT2.

NATURAL GAS

Today's MARKET STATE NATURAL GAS **BEAR TREND**


- Technically the MKT is vulnerable to the offer. On the SELL side accept all BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL signals. The MKT is on edge and any negative signal, especially below the previous session high, is an opportunity. Anticipate a price "zone" around a major resistance point to FADE. Have a plan and be ready. If your stop gets hit and the MKT does not immediately follow through, consider re-entering, even doubling up if there is structure to define low risk.
- On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major support levels but preferably after an emotional sell off. This is an aggressive strategy and any profits should be realized at the previous support failure points. Avoid DP FADE BUYS even with confirmation, as this is more likely a plateau for a BREAKOUT SELL strategy. UP BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but do have a better chance of succeeding than a DP FADE.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for NG

Wrap Up

JS Traders were given a nice opportunity to sell the corrective rally in the NATURAL GAS futures market today.  In a BEAR TREND market state with the R Level at the minor level above the UP, the probability was to the downside with any corrective rally into the UP-R resistance band presenting a valid selling opportunity.  Around 9:15 am CT the market rally stalled at our expected level of resistance, allowing traders to execute a SELL UP FADE strategy.  The market respected this key structural pivot and spent the rest of the session probing lower, eventually giving traders the opportunity to net profits on the short position at the DIR.

GOLD

Today's MARKET STATE GOLD **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

- The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult "choppy" trade. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade.  UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.
- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.

 

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for GC

 

Wrap Up

A nice day for JS GOLD Traders as the market showed its hand early and performed to expectations.  In a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state, the expectation is for a sideways trade within the CRITICAL RANGE; however, with the R Level at the DIR, this changes the expectation of the state.  The R at the DIR signals to traders that this market is "all wound up" and has the potential to create a directional move in either direction.  The market began to build negative structure from the DIR at 2 am CT, creating lower highs and lower lows as it progressed toward the DP.  After digesting  at the DP for 4-5:30 am CT, the market gave traders the SELL DP BREAKOUT opportunity around 5:30 am CT with confirmation from the MOVING AVERAGE TACTIC.  The optimal profit objective on this strategy is the DT2, which was attained with ease.  Notice how the market maintained NEGATIVE structure throughout the entire trade allowing traders to hold onto their shorts with confidence.  A good way to end the week on a profitable short from the DP BREAKOUT signal!

SWISS FRANC

Today's MARKET STATE SWISS FRANC **BEAR TREND**

- Technically the MKT is "on the fence" with the potential to go in either direction or nowhere. Pick your points and have no expectations, as the likelihood of this MKT trading sideways is high.
- On the SELL side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The pivotal nature of the session does have the potential to be the starting point for a new move. However, the probability of any trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extreme.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The MKT is "on the fence" and does have the potential to be the beginning of a new trend move. The probability of a new trend move is low. However, any price trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extremes.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SF

Wrap Up

A great day for JS Traders in the SWISS FRANC currency futures today!  In a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state with the R Level at the DIR, the market is "wound up" and has the potential to be the start of a new directional move.  Knowing full well that the possibility of a new trend move is likely, the MOVING AVERAGE crossover / "band" TACTIC is the optimal tactic to confirm a Critical Range breakout.  After failing from the DIR just after 8:00 am CT, the market began to decline sharply.  The momentum was clearly to the downside, and at 8:30 am CT traders were given a SELL DP BREAKOUT signal with confirmation in the moving averages.  The profit objective on this trade is the DT2; however, the momentum behind this significant decline took prices all the way down to the DT3 before eventually finding support.  By understanding the market environment and the key inflection pivots within the market, our traders were able to catch the big break in the SWISS FRANC and realize serious profits.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

Today's MARKET STATE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR **BEAR TREND**


- The MKT is in a soft neutral position. On the SELL side UP REVERSAL and FADE strategies with confirmation will be a better option over downside Breakouts, as selling into corrective reactions is the best position. The MKT remains negative but be patient as to not get caught FADING a corrective rise all the way up. DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid opportunities but look to take profits on emotional drops versus getting trail stopped on corrective pull backs.
- On the BUY side DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies should be looked at as a "one-shot" deal. Either the MKT railroads higher in a steady climb or it’s just a head fake to sell. If you get on a steady advance, ride it until structure is broken. DP and DT1 REVERSAL strategies are valid, as the neutral tone has the potential to produce false signals in either direction.  Avoid DP FADE BUYS as the negative trend remains in force.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DA

Wrap Up

With an MC Value of -4 and the R Level at the minor level above the UP, the AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR has produced a BEAR TREND market state with a resistance "band" from the UP - R.  Any corrective price action up to this level is expected to exhaust here and provide traders with an opportunity to capitalize via a short position.  At 7:30 am CT, traders were given a SELL UP FADE opportunity at our expected major level of resistance, the UP.  This trade turned profitable immediately and gave traders an opportunity to take profits on the position at 9:30 am CT, when the market came to within a few tics of the DIR.  The market churned sideways in a tight range before eventually taking out the DIR and closing below the 1.0146 level.