AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

Today's MARKET STATE DAX INDEX **BEAR TREND**

- The MKT is on the offer and pressing into the lower extreme. On the SELL side accept UP REVERSAL strategies over FADES, expecting more of a trendless trading environment rather than a new negative trend move. Avoid DP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE into a positive reaction after a negative breakdown signal against the DIR. The MKT is extended and will have trouble sustaining any new weakness. Use aggressive position management and anticipate potential early exit points to reduce profit give-back.
- On the BUY side DP FADE and REVERSAL strategies are qualified, however the FADE is a lower probability and should use tight risk criteria. DP and DT1 REVERSALS can risk more but should also go for more profit with the expectation of the MKT putting in a short term turning point signal. UP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive and should just "go" and not look back. Risk less; use aggressive position management and conservative profit limits.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DAX

 

Wrap Up
Today in the AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR futures market, traders were given an opportunity to execute the optimal trade for the session, the SELL UP REVERSAL, at our key inflection pivot (R Level).  In a NON-TRENDING market environment, traders should look to the momentum oscillator tactics for a "tell" on the market.  As our UP REVERSAL trade was setting up, the RSI was creating a BEARISH DIVERGENCE signal, giving traders the confidence to execute the short trade from the R.  The market played out on the signal beautifully as it stabalized at the DIR for a bit before eventually ending the day at the DP.

DAX INDEX

Today's MARKET STATE DAX INDEX **BEAR TREND**


- The MKT is in a soft neutral position. On the SELL side UP REVERSAL and FADE strategies with confirmation will be a better option over downside Breakouts, as selling into corrective reactions is the best position. The MKT remains negative but be patient as to not get caught FADING a corrective rise all the way up. DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid opportunities but look to take profits on emotional drops versus getting trail stopped on corrective pull backs.
- On the BUY side DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies should be looked at as a "one-shot" deal. Either the MKT railroads higher in a steady climb or it’s just a head fake to sell. If you get on a steady advance, ride it until structure is broken. DP and DT1 REVERSAL strategies are valid, as the neutral tone has the potential to produce false signals in either direction.  Avoid DP FADE BUYS as the negative trend remains in force.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DAX

Wrap Up
Organized chaos in the DAX INDEX FUTURES today as the market played host to an enormous, early-morning sell off.  However, JS Traders had the opportunity to capitalize on the trade by identifying market state, structure and strategy coming into the session.  The DAX market was in a BEAR TREND market state with the R Level at the UP telling traders to look to get short the market below the R Level.  After the faster moving average crossed from above to below the slower moving average, traders had tactical confirmation to accept the SELL DP BREAKOUT trade around 2:45 am CT.  As indicated by the black horizontal dashed lines, the market maintained - structure making lower lows and lower highs throughout the session and, for the most part, respected the moving average "resistance band" created by the 21 and 55 period SMA.  Our profit target on the DP BREAKOUT strategy is the DT2, which was easily achieved as the market traded as low as the ** minor level at 7494.5.

SWISS FRANC

Today's MARKET SWISS FRANC **BULL TREND**


- The MKT has a firm tone and as long as the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long. On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight.  REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SF

Wrap Up
The SWISS FRANC took off and never looked back today.  In a BULL TREND market state, this is exactly the type of price action traders look to capitalize on, higher move highs, and higher move lows throughout the entire session.  Traders were able to accept the BUY UP BREAKOUT strategy with a profit target at the UT2 expecting follow through on the BULL TREND.  Sure enough, the market didn't disappoint.  The market rallied up to the UT1, where it encountered brief resistance before continuing up to the UT2 to end the session.  Traders were able to ride the long trade all the way up to the top as the SWISS FRANC maintained + structure throughout the move.

S&P 500

Today's MARKET STATE S&P 500 **BULL TREND**



- The MKT has a firm tone and as long as the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long. On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight.  REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SP

Wrap Up
Today played host to an enormous sell off in US indices and real opportunity for profit in the S&P 500 market.  The R Level at the DP in a UPT market state signals the "breaking point" for the + sentiment.  The market opened up below the DP R voiding both the UPT signal as well as the positive sentiment.  Below the R Level, the opportunity for the session is to the downside, and boy did it pay off!  As the 21 period SMA crossed below the 55 period SMA creating a "sell" signal, the market began to breakdown from the DT1.  From here it stabilized for a brief moment at the DT2 before plummeting down through the DT3 and eventually ending the day at our extreme -c level.  Notice how the directional move maintained negative structure throughout the entire session, and found resistance at moving average "band" created by the 21 and 55 period moving averages.  These types of moves don't present themselves very often, but when they do it is essential to execute your game plan and capitalize on the opportunity.

CRUDE OIL

Today's MARKET STATE CRUDE OIL **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**


- The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult "choppy" trade. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade.  UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.

- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for CL

Wrap Up
A big move today in CRUDE OIL that our JS Traders were able to capitalize on by using the OPTIMAL HEDGE TACTIC in a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state.  The expectation coming into the session was for a sideways trade within the Critical Range.  The R Level at the UP signaled traders to look for selling opportunity below this level.  When the MKT played host to a DP BREAKOUT strategy, the integrity of the NEU market state was compromised and the market began to transition into trend mode.  The optimal hedge tactic in a NEU state is the markets ability to build directional structure along with the MA crossover tactic to confirm the trade.  Sure enough the faster MA had crossed below the slower MA earlier in the session, confirming the sell signal.  Also notice that the market found resistance at the MA "band" throughout the entire session as it continued to build - structure.  The MKT eventually sold off to the DT3  before finding support and correcting back up near the DT2 to end the session.

NATURAL GAS

Today's MARKET STATE NATURAL GAS **BULL TREND**

- The MKT has a firm tone and as long as the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long. On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight.  REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for NG

Wrap Up
Today was a good day for our NATURAL GAS traders as the structure of the Critical Range offered valid trading opportunities.  With a BULL TREND market state, the expectation is for a continuation of the underling bull trend which would be depicted on the chart through higher move highs and higher move lows (positive structure).  However, the market made a lower move low just before 8:00 am CT, negating the bull trend signal and shifting toward a neutral digestive expectation.  With this signal, traders would be advised to lean on their momentum oscillators and Bollinger Band tactics to identify possible trading opportunities.  Since the sentiment remains + above the R Level, BUY strategies are recommended.  As the market peeked its head below the DP, there was a BULLISH DIVERGENCE signal in the RSI lows that occurred around 5:30 am CT.  This signal, along with the price contacting the lower BB gave traders an early indication that the BUY DP REVERSAL strategy was valid.  This proved to be the trade of the day as the market exploded topside after flirting with the DP and eventually rallied up to our UP.

S&P 500

Today's MARKET STATE S&P 500 **BULL TREND ACCELERATION**


- Technically the MKT has produced a major positive signal. On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed at UP, +c and UT3 following an exhaustive signal. UP FADE strategies have potential after the 3rd press into an area but retaining the integrity of the inflection point. Consider rolling long on any stops with this strategy.  SELL DP BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against the DIR.
- On the BUY side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies above the previous session’s low point. UP BREAKOUT strategies early in the session may have issues holding structure, so respect any break in momentum. BUY DP FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SP

Wrap Up
JS Traders were able to capitalize on today's big move in the S&P 500 futures by identifying the MARKET STATE at the beginning of the session.  In a BULL TREND ACCELERATION state, our expectation is for an accelerated move to the upside while maintaining POSITIVE structure.  The optimal tactic for this market state is a Moving Average crossover tactic.  As you can see, the MA crossover signal occurred just before our BUY UP BREAKOUT signal just after 8:30 am CT.  The market created a STRONG BAR through the RESISTANCE level (UP) and closed at the high, validating the breakout signal. JS Traders were able to get long the market from the UP and ride the trade all the way up to our expected profit target at the UT2.