AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

Today's MARKET STATE for AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR **BULL TREND**

- The MKT has a firm tone and as long as the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long. On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight.  REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DA

 







 

Wrap Up

- In a BULL TREND market state, the market should continue to build positive structure if it is going to indeed follow through on the bull trend signal.  After breaking positive structure with a new move low, the bull trend signal is negated and traders should lean on their OPTIMAL HEDGE TACTIC.  The sentiment remains positive above the R Level and any corrective sell off is a valid BUY opportunity ABOVE THE R.  The RSI indicator warned of the positive reaction to come when it put in a BULLISH DIVERGENCE at our KEY INFLECTION PIVOT.  This allowed traders to get long the market from the R Level and capitalize on the positive reaction.

S&P 500

Today's MARKET STATE for S&P 500 **BULL TREND**

- Technically the MKT is in a positive posture and as long as it continues to hold structure, further gains should be expected.  If the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long.
- On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight.  REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for YM

 

Wrap Up

- With an MC Value +4 the S&P is in a BULL TREND and the expectation is for the market to continue to build positive structure, making higher move highs and higher move loves.  After the market sold off rapidly in the overnight session, the positive structure had been broken, signalling traders to lean on the OPTIMAL HEDGE TACTIC.  By monitoring the RSI indicator, traders were able to spot the BULLISH DIVERGENCE occurring as the price made new lows that failed to be confirmed by the indicator.  This signal coincided with our KEY INFLECTION PIVOT at the R Level which allowed traders to get long the market from the R Level and ride the trade up to the DIR.

DOW FUTURES

Today's MARKET STATE for DOW FUTURES **BULL TREND CORRECTION**

- The MKT has produced a negative signal against an underlying positive trend. On the SELL side accept UP FADE signals on the 1st press into the area only. REVERSAL strategies should only be done off the UP or the previous session high point and will immediately work if they are going to. Keep position and risk management tight on these trades. SELL DIR and DP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive but do have potential to be the start of a larger corrective turn. Keep risk management tight.
- On the BUY side accept REVERSAL signals off all major inflection levels, expecting the underlying positive momentum to resume. DP FADE strategies will work better with confirmation as the MKT is in a corrective state and will be probing lower, looking for soft spots. Work any BUY DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies as any positive shift in momentum has the potential to be the start of the next leg higher. DIR FADE strategies after the UP Breakout should use greater leverage.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for YM

 

Wrap Up

- After producing a negative technical signal, the DOW FUTURES had an MC Value of +1 and a BULL TREND CORRECTION market state.  The R Level at the DIR identifies this as the key inflection pivot for the session.  If the market opens up below the R Level and respects that level, the corrective trade remains in play.  However, the market opened up slightly above the R Level, signaling the opportunity was to the up side above this level.  More than likely a digestive trading day is expected unless the market gives a BREAKOUT signal from the UP, in which case a continuation of the underlying BULL TREND should be anticipated.  As it played out, the market did take on a digestive posture, giving traders the opportunity to get long from the DIR and take profits at the UP.

EURO CURRENCY

Today's MARKET STATE for EURO CURRENCY **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

- The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult "choppy" trade. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade.  UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.
- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for EU

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wrap Up

- Today in the EURO CURRENCY, our optimal HEDGE TACTIC gave traders the needed confidence to get short the market from the DP with a SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy targeting the DT2.  The market was in a NEUTRAL DIGESTION, lending itself to a sideways trading environment within the Critical Range.  However, a break in the structural support at the DP signalled traders to lean on the moving average crossover tactic.  This SELL DP BREAKOUT signal was in line with our Sentiment Bias (R), as well as our MA crossover tactic.  Having been short the market from the DP, traders were given the opportunity to realize profits on the trade when the market came within tics of our profit objective at the DT2.

EURO STOXX 50

Today's MARKET STATE for EURO STOXX 50 **NEUTRAL DIGESTION TRANSITION**

- MKT sentiment is leaning negative and will outweigh the buy side if the integrity of the previous session high remains intact.
- On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies with the expectation that the current negative transition will continue. Keep aggressive position management on DP BREAKOUT strategies as the MKT is still in the neutral zone and has yet to commit to a new trend. A more conservative strategy would be to wait for positive reactions after a negative signal to FADE the DIR.
- On the BUY side avoid DP FADE strategies until after the previous session high point has been taken out. Until then, a better opportunity will be a DP REVERSAL strategy. The idea is that the transition trade is over and a positive shift back into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION is expected. UP BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive. Risk less, go for more.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DSX
 



 

 

Wrap Up

- With an MC Value of -3 there is a negative tone to the market in the EURO STOXX 50 today.  The TRANSITION signal is in play below the R Level so any break in structure below the R Level is expected to produce a new negative move.  If the market remains above this level, a digestive trade within the Critical Range is expected.  As the market approached the expected level of RESISTANCE around 9:30 am CT, there was a BEARISH DIVERGENCE signal in our momentum oscillator, warning us of the underlying weakness of the move.  This allowed traders to short the market from our key level of resistance and take profits on the sell off at the DIR.

DOW FUTURES

Today's MARKET STATE for DOW FUTURES **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

- Technically the MKT is "on the fence" with the potential to go in either direction or nowhere. Pick your points and have no expectations, as the likelihood of this MKT trading sideways is high.
- On the SELL side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The pivotal nature of the session does have the potential to be the starting point for a new move. However, the probability of any trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extreme.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The MKT is "on the fence" and does have the potential to be the beginning of a new trend move. The probability of a new trend move is low. However, any price trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extremes.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for YM



 

 

 

 

 

 

Wrap Up

- With the R Level at the minor level below the DP, there is a "support band" from the DP to the R Level from which traders should look to get long the market.  The market is expected to respected the DP; however, a corrective sell off down to the R Level is still an opportunity for traders to get long the DOW FUTURES.  The market STATE for the YM was NEUTRAL DIGESTION so traders should look to momentum indicators for a "tell" on the market.  At 9:30 am CT, the market tested the R Level while putting in a BULLISH DIVERGENCE signal in the RSI.  This was our confirmation to get long the market from our optimal entry point.  The market respected our key inflection point at the R and rallied up to the DIR, giving traders an opportunity to realize profits.

WHEAT

Today's MARKET STATE for WHEAT **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

- Technically the MKT is "on the fence" with the potential to go in either direction or nowhere. Pick your points and have no expectations, as the likelihood of this MKT trading sideways is high.
- On the SELL side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The pivotal nature of the session does have the potential to be the starting point for a new move. However, the probability of any trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extreme.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The MKT is "on the fence" and does have the potential to be the beginning of a new trend move. The probability of a new trend move is low. However, any price trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extremes.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for W

Wrap Up
- Today was a pivotal day in the MAY '13 WHEAT futures market.  With the R Level at the DIR in a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state, the market is "on the fence" and has the potential to transition into a new move, or go nowhere and digest within the Critical Range.  When the market began to sell off sharply from the UP, our RSI indicator warned that the market was EXTREMELY OVERSOLD at our key INFLECTION PIVOT (R).  This allowed traders to get long the market from the DIR targeting the UP.  The market held support at the DIR R and eventually traded up to the top of our critical range at the UP.