DOW FUTURES

Today's MARKET STATE for DOW FUTURES **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

- Technically the MKT is "on the fence" with the potential to go in either direction or nowhere. Pick your points and have no expectations, as the likelihood of this MKT trading sideways is high.
- On the SELL side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The pivotal nature of the session does have the potential to be the starting point for a new move. However, the probability of any trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extreme.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The MKT is "on the fence" and does have the potential to be the beginning of a new trend move. The probability of a new trend move is low. However, any price trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extremes.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for YM



 

 

 

 

 

 

Wrap Up

- With the R Level at the minor level below the DP, there is a "support band" from the DP to the R Level from which traders should look to get long the market.  The market is expected to respected the DP; however, a corrective sell off down to the R Level is still an opportunity for traders to get long the DOW FUTURES.  The market STATE for the YM was NEUTRAL DIGESTION so traders should look to momentum indicators for a "tell" on the market.  At 9:30 am CT, the market tested the R Level while putting in a BULLISH DIVERGENCE signal in the RSI.  This was our confirmation to get long the market from our optimal entry point.  The market respected our key inflection point at the R and rallied up to the DIR, giving traders an opportunity to realize profits.

WHEAT

Today's MARKET STATE for WHEAT **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

- Technically the MKT is "on the fence" with the potential to go in either direction or nowhere. Pick your points and have no expectations, as the likelihood of this MKT trading sideways is high.
- On the SELL side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The pivotal nature of the session does have the potential to be the starting point for a new move. However, the probability of any trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extreme.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The MKT is "on the fence" and does have the potential to be the beginning of a new trend move. The probability of a new trend move is low. However, any price trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extremes.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for W

Wrap Up
- Today was a pivotal day in the MAY '13 WHEAT futures market.  With the R Level at the DIR in a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state, the market is "on the fence" and has the potential to transition into a new move, or go nowhere and digest within the Critical Range.  When the market began to sell off sharply from the UP, our RSI indicator warned that the market was EXTREMELY OVERSOLD at our key INFLECTION PIVOT (R).  This allowed traders to get long the market from the DIR targeting the UP.  The market held support at the DIR R and eventually traded up to the top of our critical range at the UP.

SWISS FRANC

Today's MARKET STATE for SWISS FRANC **BEAR TREND ACCELERATION**

- The MKT is on edge and threatening further losses. On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below the previous session’s high point. DIR and DP BREAKOUT strategies should just "go", so do not risk much. UP FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any breach should be considered a potential positive corrective shift.
- On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major support levels. Expectations should be for an immediate "V" bottom turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area or a gradual rise with higher lows after an exhaustive signal. Avoid DP FADE strategies even with confirmation, as this is more likely a plateau for a BREAKOUT SELL strategy. UP BREAKOUT strategies are a lower probability but do have a better chance of succeeding than a DP FADE.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SF

Wrap Up
- Today in the SWISS FRANC futures market we had a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION market state with the R Level at the UT1.  The market is expected to maintain negative structure while accelerating to the downside and a break in structure should signal the look to our HEDGE TACTICS for a "tell" on the market.  The negative sentiment remains in tact below the R Level, and any corrective rally up to that level presents an opportunity for traders to get short the market.  The market respected the UP in the overnight session, before eventually penetrating our expected level of resistance later in the session.  Since the negative structure had been negated, traders look to the RSI signals to get an "edge" on the market.  As the market made a new high in price approaching the R Level, the RSI gave us a BEARISH DIVERGENCE signal.  This warned of the coming sell off and allowed our traders to get short from the optimal entry point, at the R Level.  The market immediately sold off and attained a price target of 2 APMD at the DIR.

EURO CURRENCY

Today's MARKET STATE for EURO CURRENCY **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

- Technically the MKT is "on the fence" with the potential to go in either direction or nowhere. Pick your points and have no expectations, as the likelihood of this MKT trading sideways is high.
- On the SELL side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The pivotal nature of the session does have the potential to be the starting point for a new move. However, the probability of any trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extreme.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The MKT is "on the fence" and does have the potential to be the beginning of a new trend move. The probability of a new trend move is low. However, any price trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extremes.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for EU

Wrap Up
- As a result of the strong move over the weekend, the EURO CURRENCY opened up below our CRITICAL RANGE.  Any corrective rally up to the R Level was an opportunity to short the EURO today.  As the market approached the R Level around 11:15 am CT, there was an EXTREME OVERBOUGHT signal in the RSI indicator, warning that the market was overextended to the upside.  This tactic gave traders the opportunity to short the market from the DP and ride the market down to our next major structural inflection point at the DT1.

BRITISH POUND

Today's MARKET STATE for BRITISH POUND **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

- The MKT is in a sideways digestive position with a slight positive bias.
- On the SELL side avoid DP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a positive reaction against the DIR after a negative breakdown signal. UP and UT1 REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any UP FADE trades should get confirmation first.
- On the BUY side UP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade. Work any position, selling into emotional surges and re-entering on any sharp pullbacks. Expect a choppy trade and be aggressive on minimizing profit give-back. DP and DT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for BP

Wrap Up
- Today in the BRITISH POUND there was a "false breakout" of the CRITICAL RANGE that allowed JS traders to capitalize on the opportunity.  The market was in a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state with the expectations of trading sideways within the CRITICAL RANGE (UP-DP).  In order to confirm a breakout from the Critical Range, the market should breach the minor level above the UP (1.5165).  Since the market FAILED TO CLOSE above this level, the SELL UP REVERSAL strategy was still an opportunity.  Looking now to our NON TREND TACTICS, JS traders know to key off of the momentum oscillators.  Major BEARISH DIVERGENCE is clearly visible in the RSI and has been forming since around 2:30 am.  This was our "tell" to accept the SELL UP REVERSAL strategy with a profit target at the DIR.

EURO CURRENCY

Today's MARKET STATE for EURO CURRENCY **NEUTRAL NEGATIVE EXTREME**

- Technically the MKT is at an extreme and is ready to either pop back into a firm neutral posture or break into a new down trend. On the SELL side immediate follow through to the MKT's technical sell signal should be expected. DP BREAKOUT strategies should be worked with the expectation that any sustained trade and repeated tests of support will give way to negative follow through. This strategy is vulnerable to the MKT, expanding its lower support band in a series of starts and stops. UP and DIR FADE strategies should expect an immediate reaction as any held trade or violation of major resistance foreshadows a potential turning point. These are good opportunities to "roll" into a long position when stopped out.
- On the BUY side DP FADE and REVERSAL strategies are qualified, however the FADE is a lower probability and should use tight risk criteria. DP REVERSALS can risk more but should also go for more profit with the expectation of a turning point "key reversal" signal to play out. UP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive and should just "go" and not look back. Risk less and go for more. A laborious lackluster rise after a positive breakout is a sign that the MKT is more likely expanding its resistance lid for a new consolidation versus transition from negative to positive technical posture.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for EU

Wrap Up
- Today in the EURO CURRENCY market there was a NEUTRAL NEGATIVE EXTREME market state.  The market is in a pivotal posture and will either transition into a BEAR TREND or pop back into a NEUTRAL posture.  The market sold off to the DP in the early morning session which would prove to be the KEY INFLECTION point for today's session.  If the market breaks down from the DP and continues lower, the market could be transitioning into a BEAR TREND.  However, if the market respects this level, the expectation is for a pop back into the Critical Range.  As it played out, our RSI indicator gave us a BULLISH DIVERGENCE at the DP giving us a "tell" that the market was going to respect this level and pop back into a NEUTRAL posture.  This gave us confidence to accept the BUY DP REVERSAL trade and ride profits all the way up to the UP.

NASDAQ 100

Today's MARKET STATE for NASDAQ 100 **BULL TREND**

- The MKT has just produced a big positive technical signal. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are a low probability but valid. Risk little and go for a lot. If the MKT is going to turn sour, it should be quick and relentless. Avoid UP FADE strategies as the MKT has just produced a major buy signal and fresh gains are expected. UP REVERSAL strategies as well are not recommended, as any resistance level violation that cannot be held is more likely a squeeze for the longs, which can quickly turn positive.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is aggressively bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, leverage up using the squeeze low as a stop, expecting a quick reaction back above your original entry. De-leverage unless you have confluence with other indicators or like MKTs.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for ND

Wrap Up
- The optimal market TACTIC in a BULL TREND market state is the moving average crossover system.  The "tell" as to whether or not this tactic will be effective is if the market performs to expectations, making higher move highs and higher move lows.  Since the overnight / early morning session played host to a slow decline (creating a lower low and lower high) this was our signal to run our optimal hedge tactics.  The 14-period RSI highlights the 70 - 30 level in red and green respectively.  The blue line below the 30 level is drawn to show the extreme low that occurred in the oscillator last night.  Notice the location of the RSI when the market sold off to our R LEVEL.  The RSI put in a HIGHER low creating a BULLISH DIVERGENCE.  The occurrence of this signal at our key inflection point (R LEVEL) gave us confidence that the R Level would maintain structure and offer traders an opportunity to get long the market.  After price traded back above the DP, traders were given the BUY DP REVERSAL opportunity as highlighted in our market commentary.  From that point, the market built positive structure, eventually allowing traders to take profits at the DIR.