GOLD

Today's MARKET STATE for GOLD: **BEAR TREND CORRECTION**

- Technically the MKT momentum is counter trend and will need a strong showing to overcome the underlying negative threat.
- On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies off the UP or near the previous session or move high will work best. DIR or DP BREAKOUT should just go. A better option is to FADE positive reactions against the DIR after a negative signal.
- On the BUY side accept FADE and BREAKOUT strategies. BREAKOUT should expect some "starts and stops" The trade is corrective and sharp positive surges can be erased in a hurry.  FADE will work if the corrective state is going to continue.  REVERSAL strategies are a lower probability as a break in structure should be considered a potential negative shift in momentum.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for GC

Wrap Up
- Today serves as a perfect example of the power of JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach.  The market has produced a BEAR TREND CORRECTION Market State with an MC Value of -2.  With the R Level above the UT1, traders should look for a continuation of the BEAR TREND below this level.  With that being said, the market has produced a corrective signal and traders should look to get short on any rally below the R.  Our market commentary tells us that the SELL UP REVERSAL strategy will work best.  After respecting the UP around 5:30am, the market gave us a "head fake" above the UP and quickly sold off back into our Critical Range.  This presented traders with the opportunity to execute out SELL UP REVERSAL strategy with the expectation of a resumption in the bear trend.  The market sold off sharply after the reversal signal, stabilizing at the DIR briefly before selling off to the DP at 10am where profits could have been realized.

SWISS FRANC

Today's MARKET STATE for SWISS FRANC: **BULL TREND ACCELERATION**

- Technically the MKT is in play after producing a big positive signal. On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off the UP and +c. Expectations should be for an immediate exhaustive turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area.  Avoid SELL UP FADE strategies even with confirmation. SELL DP BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against the DIR.
- On the BUY side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies above the previous session's low point. UP BREAKOUT strategies should just "go", so do not risk much. Be wary of these strategies early in the session and look to exit on the 1st break in structure.  BUY DP FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift high.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SF

Wrap Up
- Although we didn't get the powerful upside rally that we were looking for in a BULL TREND ACCELERATION Market State, there was still opportunity for profits in the AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR.  As the market sold off during the overnight session, it provided traders with a prime opportunity to get long the market from the optimal entry point, the R Level.  The BUY R FADE strategy could have been executed at either 6 am or 7:30 am, with the expectation of upside follow through.  As it played out, the market was only able to rally up to the DIR before putting in an intraday double top around the 1.1030 level, signalling traders to take profits on their long positions.

WHEAT

Today's MARKET STATE for WHEAT: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

- The MKT is in a sideways digestive position with a slight positive bias.
- On the SELL side avoid DP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a positive reaction against the DIR after a negative breakdown signal. UP and UT1 REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any UP FADE trades should get confirmation first.
- On the BUY side UP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade. Work any position, selling into emotional surges and re-entering on any sharp pullbacks. Expect a choppy trade and be aggressive on minimizing profit give-back. DP and DT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for W

 

Wrap Up
- With a MC Value of +2 the WHEAT market has a slight positive tone in a NEUTRAL Primary Technical State.  With the R Level being placed at the minor level below the DP the analyst is "expanding the Critical Range".  If the DP is breached, the breaking point for the positive Sentiment for the session is at the R Level.  The market sold off sharply from the DIR, took out the DP and eventually found Support at the R Level.  This presented traders with an opportunity to get long from the R with the expectation that market would retrace back into the Critical Range.  As it played out, the low for the day was right at our R Level, allowing traders to enter long the market at the optimal entry point and ride the trade all the way up to the DIR, where profits could have been realized around 11:30 AM.  By identifying the market state expectations as well as the key inflection point for the session, traders were able to successfully navigate the choppy price action in the WHEAT futures market.

NASDAQ 100

Today's MARKET STATE for NASDAQ 100: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION TRANSITION**
 

- MKT sentiment is leaning negative and will outweigh the buy side if the integrity of the previous session high remains intact.

- On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies with the expectation that the current negative transition will continue. Keep aggressive position management on DP BREAKOUT strategies as the MKT is still in the neutral zone and has yet to commit to a new trend. A more conservative strategy would be to wait for positive reactions after a negative signal to FADE the DIR.

- On the BUY side avoid DP FADE strategies until after the previous session high point has been taken out. Until then, a better opportunity will be a DP REVERSAL strategy. The idea is that the transition trade is over and a positive shift back into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION is expected. UP BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive. Risk less, go for more.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for ND

 

Wrap Up
- Today in the NASDAQ 100 market, we had a NEUTRAL DIGESTION TRANSITION market state with the possibility of the market transitioning lower.  Since the market is in a NEUTRAL Primary Technical State, traders should key off of the Critical Range (UP - DP) as the expected trading range.  Our market commentary tells us that SELL FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid; however, risk management should be kept tight.  At 9 AM the market gave us a "head fake" above our expected level of Resistance at the UP, then quickly retraced back into the Critical Range.  This provided traders with an opportunity to execute a SELL UP REVERSAL strategy, taking profits at the DIR.  The market again tested the UP, failing to produce any upside follow-through.  This gave us another opportunity to execute a SELL UP REVERSAL trade at 10:45 AM, taking profits at the DIR around 2:15 PM.

SWISS FRANC

Today's MARKET STATE for SWISS FRANC: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**
 

-Technically the MKT is “on the fence” with the potential to go in either direction or nowhere. Pick you points and have no expectations as the likelihood of this MKT trading sideways is high.

-On the SELL side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated.  The pivotal nature of the session does have the potential to be the starting point for a new move.  However, the probability of any trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extreme.

-On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated.  The MKT is “on the fence” and does have the potential to be the beginning of a new trend move.  The probability of a new trend move is low.  However, any price trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extremes.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SF

Wrap Up
- Today in the SWISS FRANC market, we had an MCV of -2 producing a NEUTRAL DIGESTION Market State.  Although there was a slight negative tone reflected in the MCV, the analyst placed the R Level at the DP, indicating to traders that above this level, the opportunity was on the long side of the market.  After flirting with the UP from 3 am - 8 am, the market finally gave us the BUY UP BREAKOUT strategy that was in-line with our sentiment bias.  Our expectation for a Critical Range breakout strategy is two APMD (Average PriceMap Distances) making our target the UT2.  The market wasted little time, as it rallied sharply, surpassing the UT1, and ultimately trading within a few tics of the UT2. 

EURO BOBL

Today's MARKET STATE for EURO BOBL: **BEAR TREND ACCELERATION**
 

-Technically the MKT is on edge and flirting with a release.  The MKT has produced a big negative signal and any positive corrective action is expected to be short-lived.  Any held strength is a sign that the trade will turn digestive.

-On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below the previous session’s high point.  DIR and DP BREAKOUT may need to be “worked” as the MKT is on edge and will be emotional, producing some starts and stops before it drops.

-On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off major support levels as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies.  BREAKOUT strategies above the previous session high are a long shot, so risk less and go for more.  Any DIR or DP FADE should have confirmation and is not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for BOBL

 

Wrap Up
- Today was a great day for our traders in the EURO BOBL market as the market performed to expectations in the BEAR TREND ACCELERATION market state.  In a market state such as the one we had today, with the R Level above the Critical Range, traders should look to get short the market aggressively from major inflection points below the R Level.  The market found support on two separate occasions during the overnight session, then, at 7:00 AM, gave us a SELL DIR BREAKOUT strategy.  This trade turned profitable immediately, as the market sold off sharply, taking out the DP, eventually finding support at the DT1, where profits could have been realized.  By identifying the signature state of the market along with the Sentiment Bias for the session, JS Traders were able to capitalize on the strong sell-off in the EURO BOBL.

5YR TREASURY NOTES

Today's MARKET STATE for 5YR TREASURY NOTES: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**
 

-The MKT is in a digestive position with a negative technical bias.  On the SELL side accept FADE, BREAKOUT, and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points.  DP SELL BREAKOUT strategies should just “go” and not look back.  DIR FADE strategies after a negative breakdown signal are good opportunities as well.  If the trade just “hangs around” after a breakdown signal, it is likely that more digestive action is to come.  Be more aggressive with UP FADE and REVERSAL strategies and resistance inflection points at or against the previous session high point.

-On the BUY side DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive and should hold structure if they are good.  DP BUY FADE strategies are aggressive and if they are going to work should do so on the initial test of support.  Repeated tests are more likely to give way to a lower trade.  BUY REVERSAL strategies are recommended off the DP only, as the MKT is vulnerable to a negative trend shift.  The probability is to the downside today so don’t get stubborn buying breaks.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for FV

Wrap Up
- In a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state, our expectation is for a sideways trading session with the upper and lower boundaries at the UP and DP within our Price Map.  However, if the market does breakout of this Critical Range, our expectation is for a move of two APMD.  Today in the 5YR TREASURY NOTES we had a downside breakout from the DP generating a SELL DP BREAKOUT signals which was confirmed by price action under the R Level.  With this strategy, our expected target is the DT2 and, as you can see, the market did in fact make it all the way down to our price target at 124'045.