Friday, October 26, 2012

EURUSD FOREX

Today's MARKET STATE for EURUSD FOREX: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

- The MKT is in a sideways digestive position with a slight positive bias.
- On the SELL side avoid DP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a positive reaction against the DIR after a negative breakdown signal. UP and UT1 REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any UP FADE trades should get confirmation first.
- On the BUY side UP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade. Work any position, selling into emotional surges and re-entering on any sharp pullbacks. Expect a choppy trade and be aggressive on minimizing profit give-back. DP and DT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended.

 
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for EURUSD


Wrap Up
Today in the EURUSD FOREX market, we had an MC Value of +3 in a NEUTRAL DIGESTION environment.  Our market commentary tells us that we can accept BUY DP FADE and REVERSAL strategies as our expectation is for price to stay within the Critical Range.  Around 5:30 AM the market makes a push through the DP and quickly corrects itself.  After the market made another attempt at the DP and FAILED to put in a lower at 6:45 we are given an opportunity to BUY a DP REVERSAL as the market has told us that it is respecting the Support level at the DP.  In a sideways market, we should keep tighter position management, and profits on this trade should have been taken at the DIR.

Thursday, October 25, 2012

S&P 500

Today's MARKET STATE for S&P 500: **BEAR TREND**


-Technically the MKT is vulnerable to the offer. On the SELL side accept all BREAKOUT, FADE, and REVERSAL signals.  The MKT is on edge and any negative signal, especially below the previous session high, is an opportunity.  Anticipate a price “zone” around a major resistance point to FADE.  Have a plan and be ready.  If your stop gets hit and the MKT
- On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major support levels but preferably after an emotional sell off. This is an aggressive strategy and any profits should be realized at the previous support failure points.  Avoid DP FADE BUYS eve with confirmation, as this is more likely a plateau for a BREAKOUT SELL strategy.  UP BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but do have a better chance of success than a DP FADE.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SP







Wrap Up
Today the market performed to expectations and gave traders the opportunity for major profits.  In a BEAR TREND environment, our market commentary tells us that we should accept all SELL signals at major inflection points.  With the R Level at the UP, we know that a SELL strategy at the R presents us with our highest risk/reward trade.  At 8 AM the market gave us a "head fake" about the R Level, and then immediately corrected itself.  This was our opportunity to execute a SELL UP REVERSAL strategy with the DP as out expected target.  As it played out, the market sold off sharp, stabalized at the DIR around 10 AM and then proceeded down to our downside target at the DP.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

NATURAL GAS

Today's MARKET STATE for NATURAL GAS: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**
 
-The MKT is in a sideways digestive position with a slight positive bias.
-On the SELL side avoid DP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a positive reaction against the DIR after a negative breakdown signal.  UP and UT1 REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as sloppy trading conditions are expected.  Any UP FADE trades should get confirmation first.
- On the BUY side UP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade.  Work any positions, selling into emotional surges and re-entering on any sharp pullbacks.  Expect a choppy trade and be aggressive on minimizing profit give-back.  DP and DT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for NG






Wrap Up
Today we had a big day in the NATURAL GAS futures market.  Our market commentary tells us to avoid a SELL DP BREAKOUT but rather FADE a positive reaction at the DIR.  With the R Level at the DIR, this strategy was in perfect alignment with our expectation for today.  As it played out, we got the breakdown at the DP around 5 A.M. and then a positive reaction up to our R Level at the DIR.  This was the highest probability trading opportunity and proved to be a profitable one.  By executing a SELL FADE from the DIR, our traders were able to capitalize on the corrective rally and realize profits either at the DP or the DT1.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

GOLD

Today's MARKET STATE for GOLD: **BEAR TREND**

- Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND and has produced a negative signal.
- On the SELL side accept all BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL signals. If the MKT produces a DP BREAKOUT signal early in the session, it should just "go" and not look back. Beware of any break in early negative structure, as a corrective rally up to resistance is a likely scenario.  Anticipate a price "zone" around a major resistance point to FADE. Follow any corrective rise with a REVERSAL strategy.
- On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major support levels but preferably after an emotional sell off early in the session. Avoid DP FADE strategies even with confirmation, as this is more likely a plateau for a BREAKOUT SELL. UP BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but do have a better chance of succeeding than a DP FADE.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for GOLD





Wrap Up
Today in the GOLD futures market, we had an MC Value of -4 indicating a BEAR TREND market state.  Our expectation is for the continuation of the bear trend and a new move lower.  We had an early breakout from the DP which our market commentary tells us should just "go".  Indeed this trade did just "go" and never looked back as it built negative structure and wasted no time in selling off to the  UT1.  By using the MC Value to define the technical state of the market, our traders were able to capitalize on the breakout from the Critical Range and get short Gold on the breakout from the DP.

Monday, October 22, 2012

EURUSD FOREX

Today's MARKET STATE for EURUSD FOREX: **BULL TREND**

- Technically the MKT is in a positive posture and as long as it continues to hold structure, further gains should be expected.  If the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long.
- On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight.  REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for EURUSD




Wrap Up
Today in the EURUSD FOREX market we had a MC Value of +4 and a BULL TREND market state.  The analyst has placed the R Level at the UP which, in essence, is telling the market, "If today is going to be a bull trend market, prove it!"  The market traded up to the R Level at 6 A.M. giving traders a chance to execute a SELL R FADE strategy.  The underlying bull trend of the market must be respected, and traders should have used tight position management.  Taking profits just after 8 A.M., we had another go at the UP around 9:30.  The R Level again proved to be a valid level of resistance, and allowed traders to get short from the R for a second time, realizing profits at the DIR just before 1 P.M.

Friday, October 19, 2012

CRUDE OIL

Today's MARKET STATE for EURO CURRENCY: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION TRANSITION**

- MKT sentiment is leaning negative and will outweigh the buy side if the integrity of the previous session high remains intact.
- On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies with the expectation that the current negative transition will continue. Keep aggressive position management on DP BREAKOUT strategies as the MKT is still in the neutral zone and has yet to commit to a new trend. A more conservative strategy would be to wait for positive reactions after a negative signal to FADE the DIR.
- On the BUY side avoid DP FADE strategies until after the previous session high point has been taken out. Until then, a better opportunity will be a DP REVERSAL strategy. The idea is that the transition trade is over and a positive shift back into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION is expected. UP BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive. Risk less, go for more.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for NEUT



Wrap Up
In the CRUDE OIL futures market today, we had MC Value of -2 and a negative sentiment bias on the day.  Our expectation is that today could produce a new move lower if the integrity of the previous session remains intact.  At 8 A.M. we had a brief break of the UP, which was quickly reversed by 9:30, offering us a SELL UP REVERSAL trade.  Another attempt at the UP failed at 10 A.M. giving us confirmation of the negative tone.  Our expectation is that today may produce a new move lower, and indeed it did.  The market had a sharp sell off around 11 A.M. and eventually stabilized at the lower end of our Critical Range at the DP.  By defining the sentiment bias and the expected trading range for the day, JS traders were able to capitalize on the big move in CRUDE OIL today.

Thursday, October 18, 2012

EURO CURRENCY

Today's MARKET STATE for EURO CURRENCY: **NEUTRAL POSITIVE EXTREME**
-The MKT is in a neutral digest in an underlying positive MKT and will need to generate a positive push today if it is to avoid falling back into a corrective trade.
- On the Sell side REVERSAL strategies off the UP and UT1 will work best as any unsustained positive signal is expected to provide a sharp negative reaction. FADE strategies off the UP are valid but will work better after the 2nd or 3rd press into an area. BREAKOUT strategies below the DP are a lower probability and should be used as a signal for a FADE strategy against the DIR.
- On the Buy side FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended off the DP, especially if the previous session low point remains intact.  BREAKOUT strategies should hold structure after a resistance breach if they are going to follow through. Any break in momentum and the market will be vulnerable to drop back into a digestive trade.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for EU



Wrap Up
Today in the EURO CURRENCY futures market, we have a perfect example of how JS Services Market Structure Bias [M.S.B.] can be used to successfully navigate a market.  The EU had an MC change of -4 to produces an MC Value of +3 for the day.  In a NEUTRAL POSITIVE EXTREME market state, our expectation is that in order for the positive sentiment to remain in tact, price must respect the level of Support at the R Level.  If that level is broken, our expectation is that the market is transitioning into a Neutral Digestive state.  With the R Level at the DP we are looking to accept DP FADE strategies.  Since we are still in a NEUTRAL market state, our position management should be tight, and profits should be realized sooner rather than later.  Late last night at 11 P.M. we have our first BUY DP FADE opportunity that takes us right up to the DIR just before 2 A.M.  Then again around around 3 A.M. we have multiple attempts at the DP which held support, and offered traders another BUY DP FADE trade.  Again, this trade made it up to the DIR giving traders a second profitable trade.  After profits were realized on the second trade around 4:30 A.M., the market began to build NEGATIVE STRUCTURE by failing to produce higher move highs.  Although the market did approach the DP again around 9:30, the BUY DP FADE trade would be suspect because each successive rally has produces lower move highs, indicating weakness on the side of the bulls.  As you can see, the rally that occurred after 9:30 failed to reach the DIR and the R Level eventually gave way around 1:30 P.M.