CRUDE OIL

Today's MARKET STATE for CRUDE OIL: **BEAR TREND CORRECTION**

- Technically the MKT has produced a counter trend signal and may be set for a short term shift in sentiment. On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADES as the corrective trading environment is expected to produce some false positives on resistance violations as it probes higher.  DIR and DP BREAKOUT strategies should just "go" with expectations that the negative momentum is going to resume course. Anticipate profit management adjustments as sentiment can turn quickly.

- On the BUY side DIR and UP BREAKOUT should just "go" and hold structure. Risk less and go for more with the expectations of an emotional shift in sentiment supporting the technical positive signal. A break in the momentum of the positive signal and this strategy should be avoided as follow through in either direction is unlikely. Avoid DP REVERSAL strategies, as any break in structure is a sign that the Bear Trend is going to reestablish itself. FADE strategies off the DP should be entered sooner "higher" than later " lower" with expectations that the corrective rally is going to continue to run and keep pace.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for CL

Wrap Up
- Today we have a BEAR TREND CORRECTION Market State, and an MC Value of +1.  With the R Level at the DP, the probability is for a counter trend rally above the R Level.  The market digested between the DIR and the minor level within the Critical Range until about 8:30 A.M. when we were given a BUY DIR FADE opportunity above the R Level.  This strategy is in line with our expectations for the day, as a counter trend signal has been produced and the placement of the R Level at the DP confirms the positive posture.  The market continued to gain throughout the morning, and achieved the UP a little before 10 A.M.  Since this is still a BEAR state, the trader must respect the underlying trend and implement tight position management as to minimize profit giveback.  The market digested around the UP for a few hours, and eventually met resistance at the minor level between the UP and UT1.

S&P 500 INDEX

Today's MARKET STATE for S&P 500 INDEX: **NEUTRAL NEGATIVE SHIFT**

- Technically the MKT is vulnerable to further "corrective" negative action, however today the indicators are balanced, putting the outlook "on the fence" with the potential of being a turning point session. On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT and FADE strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that any trade has the potential to be the start of the next negative move. If the market is indeed going to transition lower it will hold negative structure. Any break in momentum has the potential to be a positive turning point and an end to the "corrective" trade. DP BREAKOUT strategies can risk little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a negative posture.

- On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that any trade has the potential to be the start of a positive shift. Use aggressive position management to reduce profit giveback as the neutral posture can produce some false signals. If the market is going to go, it will hold structure and not look back. If not, a choppy trend-less trading environment should be expected.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SP

 

Wrap Up
-The S&P 500 Index had a big move today that performed to our expectations for the NEUTRAL NEGATIVE SHIFT Market State.  In this state, if the market is going to advance, it is expected to hold structure and "not look back".  The price traded above the R Level, telling the trader that above this level, the probability is to the upside. We then saw a squeeze back down to the R Level around 7:00 A.M.  This generated a VERY important "TELL" as to what the rest of the day had in store for us.  The market HELD STRUCTURE at the R Level, confirming the positive move and validating a BUY R BREAKOUT strategy.  From here, the market made higher highs and higher lows throughout the trading session, maintaining POSITIVE STRUCTURE.  The market eventually leveled off, and if profits weren't realized around 11:00 A.M. when the market tested the UT2, the position must have been closed just after 2:30 P.M. when the market BROKE STRUCTURE by making a lower low.

MINI NASDAQ 100

Today's MARKET STATE for MINI NASDAQ 100: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION TRANSITION**

- Technically the MKT has the potential for a positive turn. Opportunity exists on both sides, however there is a better chance of an acceleration to the upside if the integrity of the previous session low remains intact. On the SELL side avoid UP and DIR FADE strategies until after the previous session low point has been broken. Until then, a better opportunity will be a UP REVERSAL strategy. The idea is that the transition trade is over and a negative shift back into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION is expected. DP BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive. Risk less, go for more.

- On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies with the expectation that the current positive transition will continue. Keep aggressive position management on UP BREAKOUT strategies as the MKT is still in the neutral zone and has yet to commit to a new trend. A more conservative strategy would be to wait for negative reactions after a positive signal to FADE the DIR.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for ND

Wrap Up
- Today in the MINI NASDAQ 100 Futures market, we had a perfect example of the importance of the R Level within the JS Services Price Map.  The NEUTRAL DIGESTIVE TRANSITION Market State tells us that the market has the potential to turn positive, but with the R Level at the UP, the analyst is telling the trader that this is the "breaking point" for the day.  If the market remains below the R Level, the expectation is still negative, and the highest probability trade is at the R Level.  At 7:30 A.M. the market respected the R Level, and offer the trader a perfect opportunity to execute a SELL R FADE strategy with a profit target of two major Price Map levels away, which in this case is the DP.  The market sold off sharply, hit the DP, and gave the trader an opportunity to realize a handsome profit within minutes of entering the trade.  From here the market rallied back through the DP, through the DIR, and eventually tested the R Level at the UP for a second time.  This intraday "Double Top" formation presented the trader, for a second time, to short the market at the R Level.  In almost a mirror image of the first sell off, price declined sharply down to the DP where profits should have been realized.  The uncanny accuracy of the R Level today in the MINI NASDAQ 100 serves as a textbook example of how the Sentiment Bias (R Level) works within the JS Services Price Map.

EURO CURRENCY

Today's MARKET STATE for EURO CURRENCY: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION TRANSITION**

- MKT sentiment is leaning negative and will outweigh the buy side if the integrity of the previous session high remains intact.

- On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies with the expectation that the current negative transition will continue. Keep aggressive position management on DP BREAKOUT strategies as the MKT is still in the neutral zone and has yet to commit to a new trend. A more conservative strategy would be to wait for positive reactions after a negative signal to FADE the DIR.

- On the BUY side avoid DP FADE strategies until after the previous session high point has been taken out. Until then, a better opportunity will be a DP REVERSAL strategy. The idea is that the transition trade is over and a positive shift back into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION is expected. UP BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive. Risk less, go for more.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for EU

Wrap Up
- The NEUTRAL DIGESTION TRANSITION Market State is a unique state in which the market has been digesting for some time, and today could mark the beginning of a new move.  With the R Level at the UP, the probability is to the downside, and the highest probability trade is a SELL UP FADE with the expectation that price will begin a new move lower.  Price action tested the UP around 2:30 A.M. giving the trader the SELL UP FADE opportunity that we were looking for.  Profits could have been taken at the DIR; however, given the Market State, there is a higher probability for a follow through on the move, and the DP should be our target.  This trade would have required patience; however, after testing the DIR twice previously in the session, the breakout of the DIR confirmed the direction of the market and offered the trader an opportunity to add leverage to his or her position.  The market quickly sold off the the DP presenting an opportune time to take profits.

NATURAL GAS

Today's MARKET STATE for NATURAL GAS: **BULL TREND**

- The MKT has a firm tone and as long as the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long. On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight.  REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.

- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for NG

Wrap Up
- NATURAL GAS has produced a positive signal with a MC value of +7 and the R Level at the minor level below the DT1.  This setup has extremely bullish implications and traders should be looking to BUY at all major inflection points above the R.  Although we weren't given a substantial rally, the opportunity for profits was still presented to us during the trading day.  Just after 7 A.M. a BUY DIR FADE strategy could have been executed.  The trade held structure, making higher lows and higher highs throughout the advance, and ultimately achieved the UP around 10:30 A.M. 

10YR T-NOTES

Today's MARKET STATE for 10YR T-NOTES: **NEUTRAL NEGATIVE SHIFT**

-Technically the MKT has produced a big negative signal against a positive trend.  On the SELL side avoid UP and DIR FADE strategies until after the previous session low point or major support level has been broken to confirm a negative shift.  UP REVERSAL strategies should be avoided as any positive signal is more likely an indication that the underlying trend is going to resume.  DP SELL BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE long at support targets.

- On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume.  UP BREAKOUT strategies can risk a little more if current events confirm positive posture.  If not, a better approach would be to FADE a negative “squeeze” reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for TY

Wrap Up
- Today the 10YR T-NOTES performed to market expectations.  The market produced a negative signal with a MC Value of -2 in an underlying POSITIVE trend.  The R Level at the DIR defines the level above which traders should be looking for the positive trend to resume.  The market respected the R Level just before 3 A.M. and rallied up to the minor level within the Critical Range.  The market then gave us the negative "squeeze" that our Market State told us to look for and gave the trader a perfect opportunity to execute a BUY DIR FADE strategy at the R Level around 6 A.M.  From here, price action continued higher, crossing the UP, and almost achieving the UT1.

MINI NASDAQ 100

Today's MARKET STATE for MINI NASDAQ 100: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION TRANSITION**

- The MKT has produced a positive signal but has yet to confirm the signal and remains in neutral. On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed at the UP or near the previous session high point. Avoid this strategy on higher levels as any new strength has the potential to be the beginning of a move. If the integrity of the previous session high remains intact, UP FADE strategies can be accepted. Use a BREAKOUT strategy as a signal for a DIR FADE. Only take this trade if the previous session high point remains intact.

- On the BUY side be more aggressive after the previous session high has been taken out.  UP BREAKOUT strategies should just "go", so keep risk parameters tight. FADE into any negative reaction off an unsuccessful upside BREAKOUT against the DIR. DP FADE strategies are recommended early in the session or near the end.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for ND

Wrap Up
-Today's Market State for the MINI NASDAQ 100 is a very unique one.  This Market State is used when the signature state is NEUTRAL; however, there is a higher probability for today to be the beginning of a new move.  Since the market had produced a POSITIVE signal, and the R Level at the DIR, the trader should be bullish as long as the R Level holds support.  In the event that the price moves below the R Level, this negates the positive signal, and suggests that the rest of the trading day is going to be sideways.  With the R Level still in tact, we were offered our first opportunity to buy the market around 8:30 A.M. with a "Buy UP Breakout" strategy.  Our expectation is that once the UP is breached, the market should just "go"...and "go" it did!  The market continued to rise steadily, digested at the UT1 from 11:30 - 12, and then continued higher, ultimately achieving the UT2.  This level is 2 major Price Map levels away from our entry position at the UP and represents the target at which profits should be realized.