NASDAQ 100 INDEX Futures - PAUSE FOR THE CAUSE

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a negative signal against a positive trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT.

Key off the 1999.50-1994.25 support band for an indication of the session tone. Above the 1994.25 Inflection Pivot the underlying momentum maintains a positive tone. A held failure here confirms yesterday's negative signal targeting 1966.50 and 1957.50 on any new losses. Expect no follow through. A rise above 2032 is needed to bring back the aggressive bid targeting 2062.75 on any revival.


On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies until after the previous session low point or major support level has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. Until then a better opportunity will be a REVERSAL strategy but only off the 1st major resistance level. This is a one shot trade using a low risk big profit target criteria. The idea is that if the MKT is going to follow through on its negative signal any strength is just a "head fake " before it follows through. SELL BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE long at support targets. The trade is corrective and the underlying positive tone must be respected.

On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. BREAKOUT strategies can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a positive posture with the expectation that the Bull Trend is going to resume. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction after a positive breakout signal as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

Note: The MKT is in a corrective position with the potential to move in either direction. Keep your opinions to themselves and focus on what the MKT is telling you it wants to do. Don't fight it, roll with it.

JS



* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv  .

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SP500 INDEX Futures - SKEPTICAL

 

- The MKT has produced a major positive technical signal and is flirting with a shift into a more aggressive trend position. Key off the 1150.50-1147.25 resistance band as a pivotal area for trading at these levels. If the MKT is going to extend higher it will build a base above here to make a run for the 1175 level. A held trade below 1147.25 signals a big digestive trade with the 1118.50 Inflection Pivot the low point for a new consolidation. 

On the SELL side avoid UP FADE strategies and use a REVERSAL instead. The MKT is excited but has yet to confirm any new advance. Expectations are that any false positive breakout signal will be met with a sharp negative reaction. DP BREAKOUT strategies are a lower probability but are valid and in line with a reversal scenario.


- On the BUY side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies. UP BREAKOUT strategies have the potential to run. If so, they will just "go" and not look back. Any stop and go action and any profits should be realized as it is more likely the MKT will be setting up a re-test of the DIR support to FADE before it can extend higher. FADE and REVERSAL strategies should work off the DP and only provide one opportunity. Repeated tests or base building and it is more likely the MKT is going to search for its lower digestive extreme rather than resume a positive course.

JS


* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv  .

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WHEAT Futures - SHAPE SHIFT

Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION position and is vulnerable to the offer with all trading below the 713-6 Inflection Pivot. Any positive corrective action is expected to be short lived with only one upside "stop squeeze" if the negative momentum is going to play out. Resistance at 707-2 should also be considered as a potential peak. Any held strength and repeated probe higher is a sign that the trade will turn digestive. This does not take away from the negative bias but does limit the profit potential for any new sales in the session. A break under 694-2 confirms fresh losses with 681-2 the initial target.


On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below the previous sessions high point. BREAKOUT strategies should just "go", so do not risk much. FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any momentum shift should be considered a potential positive corrective turn.

On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off major support levels as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies and opportunities to SELL into and FADE. BREAKOUT strategies above the previous session high are a long shot, so risk less and go for more. Any BUY FADE should have confirmation and are not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact. After a break in the negative structure confirmed support levels can be used for short term reactions using aggressive position management.

Note: The MKT is in an aggressive sell posture. If the previous session high is intact its just a matter of time before the sellers try to overwhelm the MKT. Look for excuses to get short. If the previous session high is breached opportunity will be on both sides of the MKT, however the bias still rests with the Bears.

JS


* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv  .

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NAT GAS FUtures - TEMPERATURE CHANGE

Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION position and is vulnerable to the offer. Any positive corrective action is expected to be short lived and top out below the 3.981 resistance pivot with only one upside "stop squeeze" if the negative momentum is going to play out. Any held strength and repeated probe higher is a sign that the trade will turn digestive. This does not take away from the negative bias but does limit the profit potential for any new sales in the session.


Key off the 3.880 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session tone. Below here the aggressive offers remain in command and a failure from 3.779 puts this market on the ropes down to 3.577 and 3.505 on any new losses. Only a rise above 3.981 gives this contract some relief.
On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below the previous sessions high point. BREAKOUT strategies should just "go", so do not risk much. FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any momentum shift should be considered a potential positive corrective turn.

On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off major support levels as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies and opportunities to SELL into and FADE. BREAKOUT strategies above the previous session high are a long shot, so risk less and go for more. Any BUY FADE should have confirmation and are not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact. After a break in the negative structure confirmed support levels can be used for short term reactions using aggressive position management.

Note: The MKT is in an aggressive sell posture. If the previous session high is intact its just a matter of time before the sellers try to overwhelm the MKT. Look for excuses to get short. If the previous session high is breached opportunity will be on both sides of the MKT, however the bias still rests with the Bears.

JS


* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv  .

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Dec' 10 GOLD Futures - NOT SO FAST

Technically the MKT has produced a positive signal into the upper extreme and will need to hold structure if it is going to avoid a drop back into a digestive trade. Key of the 1261.3 Inflection Pivot. This is the low point for any pull-back today if the underlying positive momentum is going to keep pace. If the MKT is going to make a fresh run in the session it is unlikely it will spend much time if any below 1268.0. If so it is more neutral than negative as only a break under 1261.30 signals a sentiment shift. 1281.4 is the upside hurdle for any new leg higher.


On the SELL side UP FADE signals are valid but REVERSALS are a better option. Use resting profit limits and tight stops. DIR and DP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive but do have the potential to profit from a quick negative move out of the extreme. Use tight position management as any unrealized profits can be erased quickly.

On the BUY side accept DP FADE signals after confirmation. The MKT is extended and may search for stops before it resumes its Bull move. REVERSAL strategies are a better option. The sharper the break, the better for an entry with the expectations that the MKT is going to revisit the recent move high. BUY DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies may need to be "worked" as the MKT is extended and has the potential to produce some starts and stops.

JS


* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv  .

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USDJPY FOREX - NOW WHAT?

Technically the MKT is in a DIGESTIVE BULL TREND and is flirting with a shift into a more aggressive positive position. Look for excuses to get long but respect the digestive nature and avoid pressing any position.


The 8418 Inflection Pivot is the base for any pullback if yesterday's intervention is going to have any lasting effect. A breach of 8592 and the powers that be will no doubt toast a little sake. A dip under 8418 and a digestive trade is the expectation.

On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies and use a REVERSAL instead. The MKT is excited but has yet to confirm any new advance. Expectations are that any false positive breakout signal will be met with a sharp negative reaction. BREAKOUT strategies are a lower probability but are valid and in line with a reversal scenario. If the MKT has already produced a false positive signal and is holding negative reversal structure, this strategy has potential. Expectations are that any negative BREAKOUT should just go and with the MKT staying under pressure into the close and expanding the digestive range. Anticipate a positive turn and consider reversing off lower support structure.

On the BUY side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies. BREAKOUT strategies have the potential to run. If so, they will just "go" and not look back. Any stop and go action and any profits should be realized as it is more likely the MKT will be setting up a re-test of support to FADE before it can extend higher. FADE and REVERSAL strategies should work off initial major support and only provide one opportunity. Repeated tests or base building and it is more likely the MKT is going to search for its lower digestive extreme rather than resume a positive course.

Note: The MKT has produced a positive signal but is not confirmed. Be ready for it but if it does not materialize, beware of a negative reaction. Don't get caught fading a break that continues to hold structure as the MKT may be defining its lower digestive extreme and will most likely find it after it hits your last sell stop.

JS


* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv  .

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CRUDE OIL Futures - TEMPERATURE CHANGE

Technically the MKT is in a BULL TREND ACCELERATION posture and has produced a big positive signal. The MKT is in "play" and aggressive action is expected off of technical signals. Anticipate opportunity and position management adjustments, as quick price action is likely.

The 75.74 Inflection Pivot is the base keeping the MKT aggressively bid. This and the 76.57 support are the expected low points for any pull back if the positive signal is going to follow through. A breach of 77.81 confirms this forecast.
On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major resistance levels. Expectations should be for an immediate exhaustive turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area. A gradual decline folowing a reversal signal and it more likely just a pause before another round of buying, so in either scenerio keep position management tight. Avoid SELL FADE strategies even with confirmation, as this is more likely a lid for a BREAKOUT BUY strategy. SELL BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against Directional reisstance.

On the BUY side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies above the previous sessions low point. BREAKOUT strategies should just "go", so do not risk much. Be wary of these strategies early in the session and look to exit on the 1st break in strucutre. BUY FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift. The MKT is aggressively bid which should keep pace throughout the session if the TREND ACCELERATION forecast is going to play out.

Note: The worst-case scenario for a MKT in this technical position is to go higher early in the session and then break all day. Be alert to recognize this. If you have > 3 loser long trades consider taking the next sell signal anticipating a corrective turn. Remember in this technical position if the MKT is going higher it should just go. If not there is the potential for a corrective break or digestive trading environment. 

JS


* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv  .

To learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach please contact me at info@jsservices.com  . You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/  and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.