Tuesday, August 17, 2010
SP500 Index Futures - TRANSITIONAL
Technically the MKT is in NEUTRAL TRANSITION and has produced a positive signal which should influence the MKT today if the signal is valid. If the integrity of the prior session's high remains intact it is less likely to do so with the MKT returning to a sideways trade. Roll with any new strength and leverage up if good risk parameters present themselves. The potential to get in at the beginning of a new move higher is real.
Key off the 1082.25 Inflection Pivot as the base for the positive transition signal. If the MKT is going to rotate higher any turn to support will bottom out above here.
On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major resistance levels at or near the previous session high point. Avoid this strategy on higher levels as any new strength has the potential to be the beginning of a move. If the integrity of the previous session high remains intact FADE strategies can be accepted at or near this level on the initial test with tight profit target objectives. If the MKT has already had a reaction off this resistance area avoid this strategy. Use a BREAKOUT strategy below 1082.25 as a signal to FADE a positive pull-back after a confirm break in the momentum. Only take this trade if the previous session high point remains intact. Otherwise this will be a BUY REVERSAL opportunity.
On the BUY side be more aggressive after the previous session high has been taken out. Not that this is a pre-condition but should be noted as a confirmation of strength. BREAKOUT strategies above 1091 and 1098.50 should just "go" so keep risk parameters tight. FADE into any negative reaction off an unsuccessful upside BREAKOUT after a support level is confirmed. Use a REVERSAL strategy to leverage up after the MKT gets back above the original breakout point. If the integrity of the previous session high remains intact, avoid REVERSAL strategies as any break momentum is a negative signal that the MKT is going to return to its neutral posture. FADE strategies off the 1082.25 Inflection Pivot are recommended early in the session or near the end. The positive signal will either play out from the get go or will make its move in the latter stages of the trading session.
Note: This is a dangerous emotional trading environment. Expect MKT reactions to go a little further that you expect in either direction so anticipate this in your position and risk management.
JS
* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv .
To learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach please contact me at info@jsservices.com . You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
Monday, August 16, 2010
SWISS FRANC Futures - IMPRESSIVE
Technically the MKT is in a BULL TREND ACCELERATION posture and has produced a big positive signal which will remain intact with all trading above the 9529 Inflection Pivot. The MKT is in "play" and aggressive action is expected off of technical signals. Anticipate opportunity and position management adjustments, as quick price action is likely.
On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off 9670 and 9717 of major resistance levels. Expectations should be for an immediate exhaustive turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area. A gradual decline folowing a reversal signal and it more likely just a pause before another round of buying, so in either scenerio keep position management tight. Avoid SELL FADE strategies even with confirmation, as this is more likely a lid for a BREAKOUT BUY strategy. SELL BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against Directional reisstance at 9623.
On the BUY side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies above the previous sessions low point. BREAKOUT strategies above 9670 should just "go", so do not risk much. Be wary of these strategies early in the session and look to exit on the 1st break in strucutre. BUY FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies at 9576 and 9529 as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift. The MKT is aggressively bid which should keep pace throughout the session if the TREND ACCELERATION forecast is going to play out.
Note: The worst-case scenario for a MKT in this technical position is to go higher early in the session and then break all day. Be alert to recognize this. If you have > 3 loser long trades consider taking the next sell signal anticipating a corrective turn. Remember in this technical position if the MKT is going higher it should just go. If not there is the potential for a corrective break or digestive trading environment.
JS
* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv .
To learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach please contact me at info@jsservices.com . You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
USDJPY Forex - CORRECTIVE
Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a positive signal against a negative trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT however the threat of the return of the negative momentum must be respected as a good probability.
Key off the 8573 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session tone. Above here the corrective signal is in play with a breach of 8624 needed to confirm a higher trade. Trading below 8573 puts the MKT into a digestive posture and a failure from 8522 signals a return to the offer.
Note: The MKT is in a corrective position with the potential to produce a sharp short covering rally, a messy sideways digest or a resumption of the negative trend. Keep your opinions to themselves and focus on what the MKT is telling you it wants to do. Don't fight it, roll with it. If you have > 3 losses consider reversing strategy.
JS
* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv .
To learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach please contact me at info@jsservices.com . You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Canadian Dollar Futures - SET TO SWING
Technically the MKT has produced a big negative signal against a positive trend and will remain vulnerable to the offer below the 9651 Inflection Pivot.
On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies against 9607 and 9651 until after the previous session low point or 9519 support level has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. REVERSAL strategies should be avoided as any positive signal is more likely an indication that the underlying trend is going to resume. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 9519 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE long at support targets.
On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies off the 9519 support pivot, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity. BREAKOUT strategies above 9563 and 9651can risk a little more if current events confirm a positive posture. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction after a positive breakout signal as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.
JS
* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv .
To learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach please contact me at info@jsservices.com . You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
CRUDE OIL Futures - VULNERABLE BELOW 81.13
Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION and flirting with further losses with all trading below the 81.13 Inflection Pivot. The MKT has produced a big negative signal and any positive corrective action is expected to be short lived with only one upside "stop sweep" if the negative momentum is going to play out. Any held strength and repeated probe higher is a sign that the trade will turn digestive. This does not take away from the negative bias but does limit the profit potential for any new sales in the session.
On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT. BREAKOUT strategies below the 79.59 support pivot may need to be "worked" as the MKT is on edge and will be emotional, producing some starts and stops before it drops. FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies at 81.13as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any momentum shift should be considered a potential positive corrective turn.
On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off major support levels as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies and opportunities to SELL into and FADE. BREAKOUT strategies above the previous session high or the 81.13 resistance level are a long shot, so risk less and go for more. Any BUY FADE strategies off the 79.59 support should have confirmation and are not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact. After a break in the negative structure confirmed support levels can be used for short term reactions using aggressive position management.
Note: The MKT is on edge and is vulnerable to a big drop. If the previous session high is intact its just a matter of time before the sellers try to overwhelm the MKT. Look for excuses to get short. If the previous session high is breached opportunity will be on both sides of the MKT, however the bias still rests with the Bears.
JS
* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv .
Monday, August 9, 2010
SP500 Index Futures - TRYING TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE
:Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a negative signal against a positive trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT, however a held trade above the 1113 Inflection Pivot will keep the positive momentum in command. A failure from 1113 and the Bears have something to sink their teeth into.
On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies until after the previous session low point or major support level has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. Until then a better opportunity will be a REVERSAL strategy but only off the 1129.50 resistance level. This is a one shot trade using a low risk big profit target criteria. The idea is that if the MKT is going to follow through on its negative signal any strength is just a "head fake " before it follows through. SELL BREAKOUT strategies under 1113 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE long at support targets at 1104.75 and 1090.25. The trade is corrective and the underlying positive tone must be respected.
On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies at 1113, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. BREAKOUT strategies above 1129.50 can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a positive posture with the expectation that the Bull Trend is going to resume. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction after a positive breakout signal down to 1121.25 as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.
Note: The MKT is in a corrective position with the potential to move in either direction. Keep your opinions to themselves and focus on what the MKT is telling you it wants to do. Don't fight it, roll with it.
JS
* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv .
To learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach please contact me at info@jsservices.com . You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
Thursday, August 5, 2010
GOLD Futures - TRUTH OR DARE
Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a big negative signal against a positive trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT however the underlying positive bias from the past 7 sessions will keep the pace above the 1181.3 Inflection Pivot. Only below here is the MKT vulnerable to a beating.
On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies against the 1204.4 resistance pivot until after the previous session low point or major support level has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. REVERSAL strategies should be avoided as any positive signal is more likely an indication that the underlying trend is going to resume. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 1189 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits at 1181.3 and potentially REVERSE long at support targets. The trade is counter trend so avoid any negative commitments. Only under 1181.3 can this MKT let loose to the downside targeting 1162.1.
On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies off 1189 and 1181.3 are recommended over a FADE strategies, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. BREAKOUT strategies above 1204.4 can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a positive posture. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction after a positive breakout signal down to 1196.7 as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.
Note: The MKT has produced a big technical signal against the current trend. Be aware that the negative action may be a 1-day event with the positive trend quickly re-establishing itself. If the MKT is really going to turn it should remain hard pressed and provide little or no relief.
JS
* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv .
To learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach please contact me at info@jsservices.com . You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
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