Friday, March 26, 2010

Trading Room Performance

JS Services has recently started a "live" trade room to support its products and the CLEARBOX Trading approach. The Trading Room is educational with "live" practical application of JS Services Trading tools and CLEARBOX trading strategies.

Below is a sample of the CLEARBOX systems as managed by our Risk Manager.

JS Services TF BASIC GURU - RUSSELL2000 Index March 25, 2010 Performance

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Twitter Alert Performance

March 25, 2010 was an eventful day for the US Equity Indices. The following are the results from a couple of my tweets.















DOW FUTURES Mar 25, 2010 Price Map Overlay

SP500 mAR 25, 2010 Price Map Overlay

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Thursday, March 25, 2010

SP500 Futures Index - Set to Swing


The JUN'10 SP500 Futures contract is in a NEUTRAL DIGESTIVE technical state after an unsuccessful press to new move highs. This MKT is set to churn with 1176-1146.75 the current digestive extremes.

1146.75 is the session Inflection Pivot and the low point for any big sideways trade.

On the SELL side avoid BREAKOUT strategies below 1157.50 but rather FADE a positive reaction after a negative breakdown signal against 1166.75. REVERSAL strategies at 1176 and 1185.25 are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any FADE trades should get confirmation or an exhaustion or turning point signal before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all sales as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT strategies above 1166.75 and 1176 are valid but should expect a laborious trade. Work any position, selling into emotional surges and re-entering on any sharp pullbacks. Expect a choppy trade and be aggressive on minimizing profit giveback. FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended off 1157.50 and the 1153.25-1146.75 support band. The probability is to the upside today but is not a day to press it.

Note: The MKT is in neutral and is more likely to go nowhere fast. Don't get stubborn, however, if the MKT starts to get into trend mode as the contract may just be expanding its digestive parameters producing a one way trade into the close and new extreme. Be more aggressive accepting BUY signals off 1153.25 and down to 1146.75 as this is the base for any new advance.

JS

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Wednesday, March 24, 2010

US 30YR T-BOND Futures - BEAR TREND EXTREME


Technically the MKT has produce a negative signal into the EXTREME of a BEAR TREND move and will need to hold structure if it is going to maintain an aggressive sell posture. Don't press it. Although the MKT is vulnerable a break in momentum has the potential to spark a sharp corrective rally.

Key off the 116-27 Inflection Pivot as the structure turning point.

On the SELL side downside BREAKOUT strategies below the 115-15 support pivot are valid and should continue to hold negative structure if they are going to extend. Get in to these trades sooner (higher) than later (lower) as new weakness is expected to be stop and go. A more conservative strategy is to FADE a positive reaction after a negative breakdown signal and even better to wait for a negative REVERSAL off this corrective rise rather than stepping in front of it. FADE and REVERSAL are recommended at 116-27, 117-16 and 118-05 especially after a sharp corrective rise. The MKT is negative but is also extended and the probability of a corrective rise is high. Wait for an exhaustive signals or confirmation to jump on.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT strategies above 116-27 should have aggressive trail stops and tighter profit targets. There is a good chance for a corrective turn but profit targets and position management should be tight as this is more likely a rally to sell. If you get on, ride it until structure is broken and then look to go the other way. BUY REVERSAL strategies off the 115-15 and 114-24 support level will provide opportunity but will work best after a sharp trade lower verses a steady decline. Expectations are for no follow through not a reversal of sentiment. Keep risk management and profit targets tight to reduce giveback as the underlying technical foundation today is negative. Avoid FADE BUYS as the negative trend remains enforce with sell FADE opportunities the better place to step out.

Note: Just because the MKT is extended does not mean it cannot get more extended. Any long ideas should wait for a signal don't force one.

JS

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Tuesday, March 23, 2010

EuroStoxx 50 Index - Trying to Make a Difference


The EUREX Jun'10 EUROSTOXX 50 Futures contract is trying to make a difference and will need to sustain a trade above the 2444.0 Inflection Pivot to keep its spirits up pressing resistance at 2871.0. Be patient. If the MKT is going to fall back into a digestive trade it will reject from here. A held violation is needed to confirm a fresh advance targeting 2925.0 on any new interest.


Trading below 2844.0 puts the MKT back in a soft digestive trade down to 2817. Keep it tight. If the underlying positive momentum is going to resume it will do so from here. If not sentiment turns negative targeting 2763.0 on any negative turn of events.


JS


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Monday, March 22, 2010

DOW FUTURES - Holding firm above 10652


Technically the MKT is in a BULL TREND posture and has just produced a major technical signal in the direction of the trend. If the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long.


10652 is the Inflection Pivot keeping the aggressive buy posture in play.


On the SELL side BREAKOUT strategies below 10652 are a low probability but valid. Risk little and go for a lot. If the MKT is going to turn sour, it should be quick and relentless. Avoid FADE strategies as the MKT has just produced a major buy signal and fresh gains are expected. REVERSAL strategies as well are not recommended, as any resistance level violation that cannot be held is more likely a squeeze for the longs, which can quickly turn positive.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is aggressively bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, leverage up using the squeeze low as a stop, expecting a quick reaction back above your original entry. De-leverage unless you have confluence with other indicators or like MKTs. 10778 is the hurdle for any new advance.

Note: The MKT has produced a big positive technical signal and should immediately go higher, after at most, one pullback. A laborious trade and the MKT may wait till the end of the session to make its move.


JS

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Japanese Yen - Time to Play a Card


Technically the MKT is in NEUTRAL TRANSITION and difficult trading conditions are expected. The MKT has produced a negative technical signal which must be confirmed below the 11042 Inflection Pivot if the signal is valid. Roll with any new weakness and leverage up if good risk parameters present themselves. The potential to get in at the beginning of a new move lower is real. A held trade above 11042 and a quick positive shift is expected.


On the SELL side be more aggressive after the previous session low is taken out. Not that this is a pre-condition but should be noted as a confirmation of weakness. BREAKOUT strategies below 11042 and the 10989 support pivot should just "go" so keep risk parameters tight. FADE into any positive reaction off an unsuccessful downside BREAKOUT. Use a REVERSAL strategy to leverage up back under the original failure point. If the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, avoid REVERSAL strategies as any break in the negative momentum is a positive signal that the MKT is going to return to its neutral posture. FADE strategies against the 11095 resistance pivot are recommended early in the session or near the end. The negative signal will either play out from the get go or will weigh on the MKT in the latter stages of the trading session.

On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major support levels [11042 and 10989] at or near the previous session low point. Avoid this strategy on lower levels as any new weakness has the potential to be the beginning of a move. If the integrity of the previous session low remains intact FADE strategies can be accepted at or near this inflection point on the initial test with tight profit target objectives. If the MKT has already had a reaction off this support area avoid this strategy. Use BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a negative pull-back off the 11042 Inflection Pivot after a confirm break in the negative momentum. Only take this trade if the previous session low point remains intact. Otherwise this will be a SELL REVERSAL opportunity.

Note: Transitional trading conditions are difficult and can be full of false stops and starts. Be ready for a move but be prepared to work for it.


JS

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