MKTstate

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

US 30YR T-BOND Futures - BEAR TREND EXTREME

Technically the MKT has produce a negative signal into the EXTREME of a BEAR TREND move and will need to hold structure if it is going to maintain an aggressive sell posture. Don't press it. Although the MKT is vulnerable a break in momentum has the potential to spark a sharp corrective rally.

Key off the 116-27 Inflection Pivot as the structure turning point.

On the SELL side downside BREAKOUT strategies below the 115-15 support pivot are valid and should continue to hold negative structure if they are going to extend. Get in to these trades sooner (higher) than later (lower) as new weakness is expected to be stop and go. A more conservative strategy is to FADE a positive reaction after a negative breakdown signal and even better to wait for a negative REVERSAL off this corrective rise rather than stepping in front of it. FADE and REVERSAL are recommended at 116-27, 117-16 and 118-05 especially after a sharp corrective rise. The MKT is negative but is also extended and the probability of a corrective rise is high. Wait for an exhaustive signals or confirmation to jump on.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT strategies above 116-27 should have aggressive trail stops and tighter profit targets. There is a good chance for a corrective turn but profit targets and position management should be tight as this is more likely a rally to sell. If you get on, ride it until structure is broken and then look to go the other way. BUY REVERSAL strategies off the 115-15 and 114-24 support level will provide opportunity but will work best after a sharp trade lower verses a steady decline. Expectations are for no follow through not a reversal of sentiment. Keep risk management and profit targets tight to reduce giveback as the underlying technical foundation today is negative. Avoid FADE BUYS as the negative trend remains enforce with sell FADE opportunities the better place to step out.

Note: Just because the MKT is extended does not mean it cannot get more extended. Any long ideas should wait for a signal don't force one.

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Tuesday, March 23, 2010

EuroStoxx 50 Index - Trying to Make a Difference

The EUREX Jun'10 EUROSTOXX 50 Futures contract is trying to make a difference and will need to sustain a trade above the 2444.0 Inflection Pivot to keep its spirits up pressing resistance at 2871.0. Be patient. If the MKT is going to fall back into a digestive trade it will reject from here. A held violation is needed to confirm a fresh advance targeting 2925.0 on any new interest.

Trading below 2844.0 puts the MKT back in a soft digestive trade down to 2817. Keep it tight. If the underlying positive momentum is going to resume it will do so from here. If not sentiment turns negative targeting 2763.0 on any negative turn of events.

Monday, March 22, 2010

DOW FUTURES - Holding firm above 10652

Technically the MKT is in a BULL TREND posture and has just produced a major technical signal in the direction of the trend. If the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long.

10652 is the Inflection Pivot keeping the aggressive buy posture in play.

On the SELL side BREAKOUT strategies below 10652 are a low probability but valid. Risk little and go for a lot. If the MKT is going to turn sour, it should be quick and relentless. Avoid FADE strategies as the MKT has just produced a major buy signal and fresh gains are expected. REVERSAL strategies as well are not recommended, as any resistance level violation that cannot be held is more likely a squeeze for the longs, which can quickly turn positive.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is aggressively bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, leverage up using the squeeze low as a stop, expecting a quick reaction back above your original entry. De-leverage unless you have confluence with other indicators or like MKTs. 10778 is the hurdle for any new advance.

Note: The MKT has produced a big positive technical signal and should immediately go higher, after at most, one pullback. A laborious trade and the MKT may wait till the end of the session to make its move.

Join our "LIVE" TRADE ROOM and watch JS Services transparent automated strategies trade these recomendations! For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

Japanese Yen - Time to Play a Card

Technically the MKT is in NEUTRAL TRANSITION and difficult trading conditions are expected. The MKT has produced a negative technical signal which must be confirmed below the 11042 Inflection Pivot if the signal is valid. Roll with any new weakness and leverage up if good risk parameters present themselves. The potential to get in at the beginning of a new move lower is real. A held trade above 11042 and a quick positive shift is expected.

On the SELL side be more aggressive after the previous session low is taken out. Not that this is a pre-condition but should be noted as a confirmation of weakness. BREAKOUT strategies below 11042 and the 10989 support pivot should just "go" so keep risk parameters tight. FADE into any positive reaction off an unsuccessful downside BREAKOUT. Use a REVERSAL strategy to leverage up back under the original failure point. If the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, avoid REVERSAL strategies as any break in the negative momentum is a positive signal that the MKT is going to return to its neutral posture. FADE strategies against the 11095 resistance pivot are recommended early in the session or near the end. The negative signal will either play out from the get go or will weigh on the MKT in the latter stages of the trading session.

On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major support levels [11042 and 10989] at or near the previous session low point. Avoid this strategy on lower levels as any new weakness has the potential to be the beginning of a move. If the integrity of the previous session low remains intact FADE strategies can be accepted at or near this inflection point on the initial test with tight profit target objectives. If the MKT has already had a reaction off this support area avoid this strategy. Use BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a negative pull-back off the 11042 Inflection Pivot after a confirm break in the negative momentum. Only take this trade if the previous session low point remains intact. Otherwise this will be a SELL REVERSAL opportunity.

Note: Transitional trading conditions are difficult and can be full of false stops and starts. Be ready for a move but be prepared to work for it.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

EURUSD - NEGATIVE SIGNAL

Technically the EURUSD FOREX market is in a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION technical posture. The MKT has produced a big negative signal and any positive corrective action is expected to be short lived with only one upside "stop sweep" if the negative moemtnum is going to play out. Any held strength and repeated probe higher is a sign that the trade will turn digestive. This does not take away from the negative bias but does limit the profit potential for any new sales in the session.

13696 Inflection Pivot is the lid keep the currency vulnerable.

On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below 13696 and the previous sessions high point. BREAKOUT strategies below the 13530 support pivot may need to be "worked" as the MKT is on edge and will be emotional, producing some starts and stops before it drops. FADE strategies against 13696 and 13779 are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any momentum shift should be considered a potential positive corrective turn.

On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off major support levels as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies and opportunities to SELL into and FADE. BREAKOUT strategies above 13696 are a long shot, so risk less and go for more. Any BUY FADE off the 13530 support pivot should have confirmation and are not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact. After a break in the negative structure confirmed support levels can be used for short term reactions using aggressive position management.

Note: The MKT is on edge and is vulnerable to a big drop. If the previous session high is intact its just a matter of time before the sellers try to overwhelm the MKT. Look for excuses to get short. If the previous session high is breached opportunity will be on both sides of the MKT, however the bias still rests with the Bears.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Heating Oil J'10 - Positive Signal needs Confirmation

Technically the MKT is in a DIGESTIVE BULL TREND and is flirting with a shift into a more aggressive positive position. Look for excuses to get long but respect the digestive nature and avoid pressing any position.

The 21071 Inflection Pivot is the price point to watch to keep the Positive signal in play, with 21443 the hurdle to confirm a new advance.

On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies and use a REVERSAL instead. The MKT is excited but has yet to confirm any new advance. Expectations are that any false positive breakout signal will be met with a sharp negative reaction. BREAKOUT strategies are a lower probability but are valid and in line with a reversal scenario. If the MKT has already produced a false positive signal and is holding negative reversal structure, this strategy has potential. Expectations are that any negative BREAKOUT should just go and with the MKT staying under pressure into the close and expanding the digestive range. Anticipate a positive turn and consider reversing off lower support structure.

On the BUY side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies. BREAKOUT strategies have the potential to run. If so, they will just "go" and not look back. Any stop and go action and any profits should be realized as it is more likely the MKT will be setting up a re-test of support to FADE before it can extend higher. FADE and REVERSAL strategies should work off initial major support and only provide one opportunity. Repeated tests or base building and it is more likely the MKT is going to search for its lower digestive extreme rather than resume a positive course.

Note: The MKT has produced a positive signal but is not confirmed. Be ready for it but if it does not materialize, beware of a negative reaction. Don't get caught fading a break that continues to hold structure as the MKT may be defining its lower digestive extreme and will most likely find it after it hits your last sell stop.

Swiss Franc - Positive Transition

The JUN'10 Swiss Franc contract produced a positive transition signal last night which remains in effect above the .9472 Inflection Pivot. This played today and was alerted in my Tweet at @ 7:30am cst