NAT GAS Z'09 - BEAR TREND CORRECTION Signal

Strategy Based Trading is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market and looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria.

Today I'm going to go over a BEAR TREND CORRECTION technical state. MKTs in the BEAR TREND CORRECTIVE technical state will typically have sharp corrective rallies against the underlying negative momentum. The MKT has been in an underlying negative trend and has produced a positive signal against the trend. Question, is the positive signal going to following through in a transitional trade or revert back to a BEAR TREND mode.

The session Inflection Pivot will define the session behavioral state confirming or denying the positive signal. Above the Inflection Pivot the Transitional trade is in play for a strong corrective buy opportunity. Below the Inflection Pivot the contract is vulnerable to a return to the negative trend.

For today, November 17, 2009 - The following MKT is in a BEAR TREND CORRECTIVE state:

NAT GAS Z'09 - 4.722 Inflection Pivot

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a positive signal against a negative trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT however the threat of the return of the negative momentum must be respected as a good probability.

On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the negative momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to its integrity before executing a short sale against it. BREAKOUT strategies can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a negative posture with the expectation that the negative trend is going to resume. If not a better approach would be to FADE a positive "squeeze" reaction after a negative breakdown as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

On the BUY side avoid FADE strategies until after the previous session high point or major resistance has been taken out to confirm a break in momentum. Until then a better opportunity will be a REVERSAL strategy but only off the 1st major support level. This is a one shot trade using a low risk big profit target criteria. The idea is that if the MKT is going to follow through on its CORRECTIVE signal any weakness is just a "head fake " before it follows through. BUY BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE short at resistance targets. The trade is corrective and the eventual play is a resumption of the negative momentum.

For an overview on ENTRY strategies please review the following link http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv

Note: The MKT is in a corrective position with the potential to produce a sharp short covering rally, a messy sideways digest or a resumption of the negative trend. Keep your opinions to themselves and focus on what the MKT is telling you it wants to do. Don't fight it, roll with it. If you have > 3 losses consider reversing strategy.

JS

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

EUREX BUND - Neutral Negative Shift

Strategy Based Trading is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market and looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.

STRATEGY BASED TRADING http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html

Today I'm going to go over a NEUTRAL NEGATIVE SHIFT technical state. A MKT in this position has no underlying directional bias and has produced a negative signal within a sideways digestive trade. Expectations should be for the negative signal to remain in force below the session inflection pivot targeting the digestive support extreme.

NEUTRAL NEGATIVE SHIFT

NOV 16, 2009

EUREX BUND Z'09 - 12161 Inflection Pivot

DEC'09 EUREX BUND - Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL DIGESTIVE position with a negative bias. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT but selling strength is the better opportunity.

On the SELL side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points. SELL BREAKOUT strategies should just "go" and not look back, so keep risk parameters tight. FADE strategies after a negative breakdown signal are good opportunities as well but expectation should be for the MKT to quickly move back under the failed support. If the trade just "hangs around" is more likely a signal that more digestive action is coming and a retest of resistance should be expected. Be more aggressive with FADE and REVERSAL strategies at or against the previous session high point targeting the opposing digestive support. Above the previous session high point enterying after the 2nd or 3rd press into an area is recomended over stepping in front of the initial challenge.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive and should be entered sooner [lower] than later [higher]. Expectations should be for the MKT to make its move early in the session and not look back, holding strucutre most of the day. If the MKT digests prior to making a positive move it is more likely a short squeeze to FADE. BUY FADE strategies are aggressive and if they are going to work should do so on the initial test of support. Repeated tests or "confirmation" are more likely to give way to a lower trade. BUY REVERSAL strategies are recommended off the session initial major support only, as the MKT is vulnerable to a negative trend shift. The probability is to the downside today so don't get stubborn buying breaks.

Note: The MKT is in neutral so "sloppy" conditions with "false signals" should be anticipated. Have a plan for any squeeze. Don't get stubborn however if the MKT starts to hold structure and gets into trend mode as the contract may just be expanding its digestive parameters producing a one way trade into the close and new extreme.

For an overview on ENTRY strategies please review the following link
http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv

Good trading.

JS

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

EuroFX Z'09 - Negative Signal needs confirmation

The DEC'09 EUROFX posted a big negative signal but will need to trade under the 14810 Inflection Pivot to confirm a sentiment shift. Key off this price point for the session bias. A failure here and expectations are for further losses targeting 14630 on any downside follow through. A false breakdown that cannot sustain a failure from 14810 is expected to produce a nice positive REVERSAL signal with 14978 targeted.

If we do not get a play into the 14810 level expectations will be for a difficult trading environment with 14978 and 15062 the high points for a new digestive trade.

Good trading.

JS

STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

BULL TREND ACCELERATION Signals

The US Equity Indices continued to climb higher but may be in for a reality check today. The Nasdaq100 is pressing into the extreme but the MidCap400, SOX, XBD and the DAX have produced fresh positive signals. These along with a few other markets are technically "in play" after producing a BULL TREND ACCELERATION signals.

The following markets have produced a positive signal and will continue to work an aggressive buy posture above their session Inflection Pivot.

BULL TREND ACCELERATION

NOVEMBER 12, 2009 - MKT - Inflection Pivot

MidCap400 Z'09 - 690.30

DAX Z'09 - 5611

SOX - Semiconductor Sector Index - 31300

XBD - Broker Dealer Index - 11686

Japanese Yen Z'09 - 9432

EURGBP - FOREX - 8995

Soybeans F'10 - 957-6

Draw a line on your intra-day chart at these levels. Look for opportunity in the direction of the Inflection Pivot price bias. Executing at or near these price points will provide the best risk / reward. If the MKT cannot follow through on its signal and produces a REVERSAL signal at its Inflection Pivot, a sharp counter signal move should be expected.

Good trading.

JS

STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

BULL TREND ACCELERATION SIGNALS

The US Equity Indices are on fire producing another positive technical signal adding fuel to the fire. These along with a few other markets are technically "in play". Today we continue to track BULL TREND ACCELERATION signals.

The following markets have produced a positive signal and will continue to work an aggressive buy posture above their session Inflection Pivot.

BULL TREND ACCELERATION

NOVEMBER 11, 2009

MKT - Inflection Pivot
SP500 Z'09 - 1069.25
ND100 Z'09 - 1752.25
Dow Futures Z'09 - 10139
Canadian$ Z'09 - 9432
Mexican Peso z'09 - 7455
BOBL Z'09 - 115.46

Draw a line on your intra-day chart at these levels. Look for opportunity in the direction of the Inflection Pivot price bias. Executing at or near these price points will provide the best risk / reward. If the MKT cannot follow through on its signal and produces a REVERSAL signal at its Inflection Pivot, a sharp counter signal move should be expected.

Good trading.

JS

STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html


For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

BIG POSITIVE -BULL TREND ACCELERATION SIGNALS

Today was positive all around with not MKTs that we are covering producing a negative signal. We did however get more than a few positive signals. Below are MKTs that have produced a major positive signal are in a BULL TREND ACCELERATION technical state. Expectation is that the signal is going to follow through as long as the signal is in line with the MKTs Inflection Pivot. So BULL TREND ACCELERATION should hold above their session Inflection Pivot if the signal is going to remain valid.



The strategies presented are in line with JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach, which looks to align the markets current technical state with your applied strategy criteria.

STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html
For November 10, 2009

BULL TREND ACCELERATION
The markets below have produced a major positive signal which should follow through today if valid. Key off the session Inflection Pivot for an indication of the market structure and confirmation that the aggressive positive signal is in play.

Equity Indices Dec'09 Inflection Pivot
DAX - 5546

EuroSTOXX - 2799

FTSE 100 - 513.20
MidCap400 - 678.10

ETF

XAL -24.85
BTK - 889.65
DJU - 372
XOI - 1090
OSX - 197.00

Interest Rate
BOBL - 115.33

Energy
Heating Oil - 20407

FOREX
AUDJPY - 82.93

Draw a line on your intra-day chart at these levels. Look for opportunity in the direction of the price bias. Executing at or near these price points will provide the best risk / reward. If the MKT cannot follow through on its signal and produces a REVERSAL signal at its Inflection Pivot, a sharp counter signal move should be expected.

Good trading.

JS

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

TREND ACCELERATION SIGNALS for NOV 9, 2009

Today I'm going to show MKTs that are in a trend acceleration state or a BULL TREND or BEAR TREND ACCELERATION. MKTs that have produced a major negative signal are in a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION state and MKTs that have produced a major positive signal are in a BULL TREND ACCELERATION technical state. Both states are similar in the the expectation is that the signal is going to follow through as long as the signal is in line with the MKTs Inflection Pivot. So BULL TREND ACCELERATION should hold above and BEAR TREND ACCELERATION markets should hold below their session Inflection Pivots.



For November 9, 2009

BULL TREND ACCELERATION
The markets below have produced a major positive signal which should follow through today if valid. Key off the session Inflection Pivot for an indication of the market structure and confirmation that the aggressive positive signal is in play.


Currencies Futures Dec'09

JAPANESE YEN - 11038
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR - 9102

Interest Rates Dec'09
US 10YR T-NOTE - 118-160

EQUITY ETF
SPY - SP500 Depository Receipts - 107.53
QQQ - NASDAQ 100 Tracking Stock- 41.97
RLX - Retail Sector Index - 389.00
IIX - Inter@ctive Internet Sector Index - 217.00

BEAR TREND ACCELERATION
The markets below have produced a major negative signal which should follow through today if valid. Key off the session Inflection Pivot for an indication of the market structure and confirmation that the aggressive negative momentum is in play.

Interest Rate Dec'09
BUND - 12089


Commodities Jan'10
SOYBEANS - 975-4

Draw a line on your intra-day chart at these levels. Look for opportunity in the direction of the price bias. Executing at or near these price points will provide the best risk / reward. If the MKT cannot follow through on its signal and produces a REVERSAL signal at its Inflection Pivot, a sharp counter signal move should be expected.

Good trading.

JS

STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.