SP500 – Positive signal needs confirmation

The SP500 produced an Uptrend Acceleration signal, which will remain in play with all trading above the 908 Inflection Pivot.

An Uptrend Acceleration signal is when the MKT has been trading in a digestive state and takes the 1st step in transitioning to a more aggressive Bull Trend posture. Under the current technical conditions this signal will remain true above 908, which is the ideal entry area for any longs today.

Keep a positive outlook above 908 expecting a challenge to the 926.50 resistance pivot. If the signal is going to fizzle the rally will top out here. A held violation of 926.50 puts the MKT in an bid posture but a breach of 931.25 is needed to give the acceleration signal its due targeting 962.50 on the initial move.



A break under 908-907.25 negates the positive signal and turns sentiment sour targeting 889.50 on any negative turn of events. This sell off can slide as low as 971 without sounding off any alarms. Only under 962.50 are the Bears back forecasting a return of the fear factor.

Acceleration signals have the potential to be the kick start to a new move. The danger is that the the signal was false and a counter reaction is produced. By entering at qualified Inflection Pivots you reduce this risk and improve your odds of success.



JS

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Brent Crude Oil - Is that it?

BRENT CRUDE OIL fell just shy of the resistance target published in the May 21,2009 post.

Is that it?

The MKT had a nice rebuke but it is too early to tell if the underlying positive momentum is at risk. Reactions should always be expected at major areas of inflection. This reaction for now is keeping the buyers honest with their leverage. Expect the 68.00 area to be pivotal. Only under 66.60 does sentiment shift negative target the 58.80-58.40 support band initially.



If the MKT is bad it should just go. Any digestive action is a positive signal. A breach of 71.43 is a sign that the MKT wants to make another run at the 74.10 target resistance area if not 78.90.



JS



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CRUDE OIL - What's UP with that?

What’s up with CL?

The AUG’09 CRUDE OIL contract closed firm and is flirting with further gains.

Key off the 70.85 Inflection Pivot today for an indication of the session’s tone. Above here the buyers will remain aggressive pressing resistance at 72.27 and 72.77. Be patient. If the momentum is going to fizzle it will here. A held violation confirms a positive breakout signal targeting 74.80 on the initial push. 76.20 and 77.50 are the extended targets for any new leg north.

CRUDE OIL Q'09 DAILY


A break under 70.85 and the MKT is vulnerable to more difficult choppy digestive action down to the 67.33-66.90 support band. This is the base supporting any new consolidation if the positive momentum is going to pick back up. A break under this support inflection negates the underlying positive sentiment putting the 63.00 level in play.



JS



This commentary supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach.For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.* The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

SP 500 - Positive Signal Technical Signal

The SP500 closed firm posting a positive technical signal and will keep an aggressive buy posture above 901 targeting 928.50 on any new interest today. A breach of 919.25 confirms this forecast.


894.50 is the Inflection Pivot for Friday June 26, 2009.


Above 894.50 breaks are buying opportunity. Only under yesterday’s low at 891 is the MKT back on the defensive and threatening down to 873 and 868.50.

931.25-928 is the lid for any follow through to today’s positive signal. Be patient. If the corrective trade of late is going to continue the MKT will reject here. A Daily close or sustained breach of 928.75 and the momentum is expected to accelerate to new move highs at 962.50.

The confluence between the Indices continued on Thursday June 24, 2009 with the ND100 taking the lead. Notice the ND100 rejecting from its resistance pivot [UP – Upside Pivot] at 12noon when the SP500 was trying to bust of its Critical Range violation at 910.50.

Price Map Chart Overlay for June 25, 2009

ND100 Index

SP500 Index

Expect the confluence to continue with the SP500 taking the lead today.

Is the MKT really that strong that Monday’s negative signal could not even press into support or is it just house cleaning after the roll. Most likely we will have to wait till next week to find out.

JS

This commentary supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach.

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.

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SP500 - Confluence Indicator

The SP500 had a messy session after breaking out above Wednesday’s 895.25 Inflection Pivot. The MKT is transitioning back into a neutral position with the Weekly resistance area at 931-928 the digestive lid.

Thursday’s, 6/25/2009, action will focus on the 910.50 – 902.00 Critical Range. This is the area of indecision today with the current positive momentum maintaining the controls above 902. A break under this support pivot is needed to bring back the sellers putting the 870.00 target back in play and the contract vulnerable to a negative sentiment shift.

A rise above 910.50 and the positive momentum does its best to impress with the 919.50 and 929 resistance targeted. Look for exhaustive sell signals. No follow through is expected at this time.

Wednesday provided a key indicator of confluence in both the DOW Futures and ND100 for the SP500. Note the 10am highs in all three indices. When the SP500 violated its resistance both the ND100 and DOW did not.

JS Services Price Map Chart Overlay for June 24, 2009

ND100 Index

SP500 Index

DOW Futures Index

The DOW proved to be the best barometer of the late weakness as it rejected from it’s session Inflection Pivot [R Level] and produced a REVERSAL signal under it’s resistance pivot [UP – Upside Pivot] prior to the late sell off in the SP500.

Watch for confluence signals again today. If the markets are going to make a move they will be in sync. If not it is more likely going to be a choppy re-run of Wednesday.

This commentary supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach.

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.

JS

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SP500 - Is that it?

The SEP’09 SP500 contract found it’s footing after Monday’s negative signal but will it be enough to turn the index back north.

As always anything is possible however when the MKTs technical state is taken into consideration we have a few more clues to it's intentions.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009 action is a good case in point. JS Services defines a MKTs technical state and the inflection points in which it will react in its daily Price Map. Pre-market Tuesday’s service advised that the MKT was in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE technical state.

SP500 Price Map June 23, 2009

NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE TECHNICAL STATE

Typical action in this technical state is choppy with sharp breaks against the underlying trend with the best opportunities to FADE weakness into support. Tuesday’s action provided a sharp break down to the daily Price Map support pivot and bounced, with the balance of the session sideways chop.

The market performed to expectation today and the daily Price Map allowed you to capture it.

Note Tuesday’s R level [Inflection Pivot] at 902-901.75 coincides with this week’s directional point [6/22/2009 post]. As a position management tool of Monday's negative signal this would be a good point for a trail stop. In addition the 884.00 Support Pivot [DP] provided an opportunity to “work” the trade and realize some profits. Expectations in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state are that the sharp breaks will produce positive reactions, especially if those breaks happen above a major support inflection pivot.

So what’s next in the SP500 U'09 contract for Wednesday June 24, 2009?

Tuesday’s sideways higher session produced a NEUTRAL POSITIVE EXTREME signal. In this technical signal state the MKT is pressing it’s upper digestive extreme and will either snap back into a negative posture or transition higher after breaking through it’s extreme or today's Inflection Pivot.

895.25 is the Inflection Pivot to key off for the session.

Below this price point the Index will remain hard pressed targeting 878.50 and 870.50 on any new weakness in the session, keeping Monday's negative signal in play. Expectations are that emotions will start to escalate however it’s just that above 862.50. Only under the 862.50 Weekly support inflection pivot does the underlying sentiment shift negative. Keep your eye on the 3457 in the VIX to gauge the fear factor.

A rise above the 895.25 Inflection Pivot puts Monday’s negative signal on hold for a challenge to the 903.50-902 Weekly directional area. How the MKT reacts here will provide a clue to the action for the next couple days. A rejection and the Bears will be back on the prowl searching for support. A violation and the positive momentum will have the 931.25-926.25 resistance band in its sights.

This posts supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach.

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.

JS

SP500 - How low can you go?

The SP500 U’09 contract has started the week on the defensive and is searching for support.

How low can it go? Or more precisely how low can it go and not alter the underlying positive sentiment off the March’09 lows? - 862.50.

Expectations for this week are that as long as the MKT is below the 931 Inflection Pivot it is vulnerable to further corrective action target, 878, 870 and 862.50 on the extreme. If the current weakness is going to stabilize it is doubtful that the MKT will do much if any trading below 870 and will more likely bounce above 878. Any positive reaction out of the 878-862.50 are will have the 9312.25-929 as the week’s target resistance. REVERSAL strategies are recommended to capture any positive turn.

Currently (1:15pm cst June 22, 2009) the Index will remain hard pressed below 902 targeting support. This Directional level will be a good gauge of momentum between the 931 and 970 inflection pivots.

A break under 962.50 is needed to confirm any sentiment shift off the MAR’09 lows. If so expectations are for volatility to pick up [use the 3457 level in the VIX as a sentiment guide and a violation of 4031 as the confirmation point that the fear factor is back] with 778.00 the initial target.

If the MKT stabilizes above 878-870 expectations for the week should be for a run at the 931-929 Inflection Pivot area with 902 acting as a sentiment gauge for any relief from today’s negative shift. This is a FADE opportunity as further sideways to lower action is the outlook. Only above 931 does the positive momentum engage targeting 963 initially. The likely environment will be stop and go however if the rally does extend it can climb up to 1017.

This Inflection Pivot forecast is for the week ending June 26,2009 and is supported by JS Services Daily Price Map overlay analysis.

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.

John Slazas

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