NIKKEI 225 - Rising Sun has a Cloud

The Nikkei 225 JUN'09 contract is poised for a challenge to major directional resistance whose reaction will point the way to the next 2-3 month move.

9710 is the Inflection Pivot to focus on.

If the Index is going to re-visit this years low area at 6960 the MKT will reject here. If we get a decisive rejection that will be the objective. A lackluster stagnant trade following a challenge to the 9710 area and we may be in for an early sideways summer trade with 8060 the digestive low.

A held violation of 9710 with a Daily close above 9830 will put the 11000 and 12180 targets in reach. Reactions should be expected.

JS

BRENT CRUDE OIL - EXCITABLE

The BRENT CRUDE [ICE] JUL'09 contract is heating up and will maintain an aggressive buy posture above the 58.82 Inflection Pivot.

61.98 is the initial resistance that is expected to challenge any new buying. How the MKT reacts here will gauge the next move. A violation and Daily close above 62.38 and it is just a matter of time before we see $68 and $74 oil.

A rejection from 61.98 and things can get a little slippery with a big sideways trade. 58.82 will remain pivotal but 55.91 is the support inflection pivot.

If the current strength struggles below 58.82, 55.91 is expected to prove the next bounce.

JS

British Pound - All that and a Bag of Chips

Impressive day in the British Pound.

Is this the real deal. Could be. At least for another 5 handles through the Memorial Day holiday, if not 15 over the next 2-5 weeks.

Interesting divergence in the Monthly with the MKT breaking structure this year taking out the JUNE 2001 lows but maintaining an underlying positive structure basis the Monthly close.

15663 is the Inflection Pivot to key off for the current advance. If the MKT is going to run it should just go with 16363 and 16633 the initial targets. If things turn eventful an extended run can climb as high as 17589.

A held trade under 15598 and the positive turn is in question and the currency vulnerable to a slide back into a digestive trade.

JS

NASDAQ 100 Review

The positive signal on May 18, could not follow through running into a wall at our resistance Inflection Pivot at the end of the session.

The technical posture has shifted into firm digestion from positive acceleration.

1379 is the inflection pivot to key off today. A held trade under this support will need confirmation below 1373 to negate Monday's positive signal. If so a shift in sentiment should be expected with the potential to drop the Index down to 1347.50 and 1336.50 in the session.

If yesterday's rejection was real the contract will not do much if any trading above 1399.75. If so a re-test of yesterday's high at 1410.50 is the outlook. Expect a reaction but roll with a violation. Above this resistance inflection pivot a price acceleration should be anticipated.

JS

NASDAQ 100 TIME TO PLAY A CARD

The JUN'09 NASDAQ100 jumped higher in an impressive show of strength. If this move is for real it will maintain a trade above the 1373 Inflection Pivot. Any test of this support will be short lived with only 1 headfake squeeze if yesterday's positive signal is going to follow through.

A breach of the 1409.75 resistance is needed to confirm the positive signal targeting 1472.75 on any held advance.

A held trade below the 1373 Inflection pivot and a sideways digestive trade is expected. Only under the 1337-1335 support does sentiment shift negative.

JS

Natural Gas back on the fence

This week should prove to be decisive for the NAT GAS.

Make or Break.

4.080 is the Inflection Pivot for the week.

If the MKT is going to resume its run off the Apr 27, 2009 move low it will stabilize above here and not look back targeting the 4.880 resistance on the next advance.

A held break under 4.080 is not so much negative as it is digestive. Expectations will be for some big sideways emotional action with the 3.820 area the initial target on a retreat that could easily extend down into the 3.4’s.

JS

10YR T-NOTE Inflection Pivot

Is that it for the rise in the 10yr T-Note.

Could be.

122-020 is the Inflection Pivot to key off.

If the MKT is below here it is vulnerable to a beating, with the 120-25-120-23 the support band that must be taken out to confirm a press to new move lows.

Above 122-02 the difficult corrective trade continues.

If this signal is going to work it will play its hand today or tomorrow.

JS