Tuesday, April 16, 2013

SWISS FRANC


Today's MARKET SWISS FRANC **BULL TREND**


- The MKT has a firm tone and as long as the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long. On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight.  REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SF



Wrap Up
The SWISS FRANC took off and never looked back today.  In a BULL TREND market state, this is exactly the type of price action traders look to capitalize on, higher move highs, and higher move lows throughout the entire session.  Traders were able to accept the BUY UP BREAKOUT strategy with a profit target at the UT2 expecting follow through on the BULL TREND.  Sure enough, the market didn't disappoint.  The market rallied up to the UT1, where it encountered brief resistance before continuing up to the UT2 to end the session.  Traders were able to ride the long trade all the way up to the top as the SWISS FRANC maintained + structure throughout the move.

Monday, April 15, 2013

S&P 500


Today's MARKET STATE S&P 500 **BULL TREND**



- The MKT has a firm tone and as long as the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long. On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight.  REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.



Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SP



Wrap Up
Today played host to an enormous sell off in US indices and real opportunity for profit in the S&P 500 market.  The R Level at the DP in a UPT market state signals the "breaking point" for the + sentiment.  The market opened up below the DP R voiding both the UPT signal as well as the positive sentiment.  Below the R Level, the opportunity for the session is to the downside, and boy did it pay off!  As the 21 period SMA crossed below the 55 period SMA creating a "sell" signal, the market began to breakdown from the DT1.  From here it stabilized for a brief moment at the DT2 before plummeting down through the DT3 and eventually ending the day at our extreme -c level.  Notice how the directional move maintained negative structure throughout the entire session, and found resistance at moving average "band" created by the 21 and 55 period moving averages.  These types of moves don't present themselves very often, but when they do it is essential to execute your game plan and capitalize on the opportunity.

Friday, April 12, 2013

CRUDE OIL



Today's MARKET STATE CRUDE OIL **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**


- The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult "choppy" trade. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade.  UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.

- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for CL



Wrap Up
A big move today in CRUDE OIL that our JS Traders were able to capitalize on by using the OPTIMAL HEDGE TACTIC in a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state.  The expectation coming into the session was for a sideways trade within the Critical Range.  The R Level at the UP signaled traders to look for selling opportunity below this level.  When the MKT played host to a DP BREAKOUT strategy, the integrity of the NEU market state was compromised and the market began to transition into trend mode.  The optimal hedge tactic in a NEU state is the markets ability to build directional structure along with the MA crossover tactic to confirm the trade.  Sure enough the faster MA had crossed below the slower MA earlier in the session, confirming the sell signal.  Also notice that the market found resistance at the MA "band" throughout the entire session as it continued to build - structure.  The MKT eventually sold off to the DT3  before finding support and correcting back up near the DT2 to end the session.

Thursday, April 11, 2013

NATURAL GAS


Today's MARKET STATE NATURAL GAS **BULL TREND**

- The MKT has a firm tone and as long as the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long. On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight.  REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.



Today's PRICE MAP Performance for NG




Wrap Up
Today was a good day for our NATURAL GAS traders as the structure of the Critical Range offered valid trading opportunities.  With a BULL TREND market state, the expectation is for a continuation of the underling bull trend which would be depicted on the chart through higher move highs and higher move lows (positive structure).  However, the market made a lower move low just before 8:00 am CT, negating the bull trend signal and shifting toward a neutral digestive expectation.  With this signal, traders would be advised to lean on their momentum oscillators and Bollinger Band tactics to identify possible trading opportunities.  Since the sentiment remains + above the R Level, BUY strategies are recommended.  As the market peeked its head below the DP, there was a BULLISH DIVERGENCE signal in the RSI lows that occurred around 5:30 am CT.  This signal, along with the price contacting the lower BB gave traders an early indication that the BUY DP REVERSAL strategy was valid.  This proved to be the trade of the day as the market exploded topside after flirting with the DP and eventually rallied up to our UP.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

S&P 500


Today's MARKET STATE S&P 500 **BULL TREND ACCELERATION**


- Technically the MKT has produced a major positive signal. On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed at UP, +c and UT3 following an exhaustive signal. UP FADE strategies have potential after the 3rd press into an area but retaining the integrity of the inflection point. Consider rolling long on any stops with this strategy.  SELL DP BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against the DIR.
- On the BUY side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies above the previous session’s low point. UP BREAKOUT strategies early in the session may have issues holding structure, so respect any break in momentum. BUY DP FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SP



Wrap Up
JS Traders were able to capitalize on today's big move in the S&P 500 futures by identifying the MARKET STATE at the beginning of the session.  In a BULL TREND ACCELERATION state, our expectation is for an accelerated move to the upside while maintaining POSITIVE structure.  The optimal tactic for this market state is a Moving Average crossover tactic.  As you can see, the MA crossover signal occurred just before our BUY UP BREAKOUT signal just after 8:30 am CT.  The market created a STRONG BAR through the RESISTANCE level (UP) and closed at the high, validating the breakout signal. JS Traders were able to get long the market from the UP and ride the trade all the way up to our expected profit target at the UT2.

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

EURO STOXX 50


Today's MARKET STATE EURO STOXX 50 **BEAR TREND ACCELERATION**

- The MKT is vulnerable to the offer and threatening fresh losses. On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below the previous session’s high point. DIR and DP BREAKOUT strategies should just "go", so do not risk much. UP FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any momentum shift should be considered a potential positive corrective turn.
- On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off major support levels as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies and opportunities to SELL into and FADE. BREAKOUT strategies above the previous session high are a long shot, so risk less and go for more. Any DP FADE should have confirmation and is not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact. After a break in the negative structure is confirmed, support levels can be used for short-term reactions using aggressive position management



Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DSX




Wrap Up
Today in the EURO STOXX 50 futures market, traders had an opportunity to make money using our OPTIMAL HEDGE TACTIC as the MKT did not perform to expectations.  In a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION market state, the expectation is for the market to continue to make lower move lows and lower move highs while accelerating to the downside.  Moving Average crossover tactics work well in these conditions, however, the early break in structure around 3:15 am was the tell that the market was not going to follow through with the bear trend acceleration signal.  With that being said, traders were able to utilize our RSI and Stochastic tactics to identify the trade of the day.  The Sentiment remained negative below the R Level, and any corrective rally up to this level presented traders with an opportunity to short the market.  When the market tested the UP around 3:45 am CT, there was a major BEARISH DIVERGENCE signal in the RSI along with an "Overbought" reading in the Stochastics.  These market tactics were in confluence with our JS Pricemap and allowed traders to get short the market from the UP.  Price immediately began to drop off an the market maintained negative structure throughout the rest of the session, allowing traders to take profits at the DP.

Monday, April 8, 2013

WHEAT

Today's MARKET STATE WHEAT **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**


- The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult "choppy" trade. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade.  UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.
- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for W

 

Wrap Up
An MC Value of -2 signaled a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market with a slight negative  bias.  With the R Level at the DIR, the market is "on the fence" and has the potential to be the start of a directional move.  The market opened up above the R Level signaling that a sell-off to the DIR was an opportunity to get long the market from the optimal entry point (R).  Since the market was in a NON-TREND state, traders should utilize the momentum oscillator tactics for a "tell" on the market.  The oversold reading in the RSI hinted that the market was finding support at the R and highlighted the BUY R FADE opportunity.  The market respected our key inflection pivot and rallied to the upper end of our Critical Range where profits could have been taken.