Today's MARKET STATE for EURO CURRENCY: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION TRANSITION**
- MKT sentiment is leaning negative and will outweigh the buy side if the integrity of the previous session high remains intact.
- On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies with the expectation that the current negative transition will continue. Keep aggressive position management on DP BREAKOUT strategies as the MKT is still in the neutral zone and has yet to commit to a new trend. A more conservative strategy would be to wait for positive reactions after a negative signal to FADE the DIR.
- On the BUY side avoid DP FADE strategies until after the previous session high point has been taken out. Until then, a better opportunity will be a DP REVERSAL strategy. The idea is that the transition trade is over and a positive shift back into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION is expected. UP BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive. Risk less, go for more.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for NEUT
Wrap Up
In the CRUDE OIL futures market today, we had MC Value of -2 and a negative sentiment bias on the day. Our expectation is that today could produce a new move lower if the integrity of the previous session remains intact. At 8 A.M. we had a brief break of the UP, which was quickly reversed by 9:30, offering us a SELL UP REVERSAL trade. Another attempt at the UP failed at 10 A.M. giving us confirmation of the negative tone. Our expectation is that today may produce a new move lower, and indeed it did. The market had a sharp sell off around 11 A.M. and eventually stabilized at the lower end of our Critical Range at the DP. By defining the sentiment bias and the expected trading range for the day, JS traders were able to capitalize on the big move in CRUDE OIL today.
Today's MARKET STATE for EURO CURRENCY: **NEUTRAL POSITIVE EXTREME**
-The MKT is in a neutral digest in an underlying positive MKT and will need to generate a positive push today if it is to avoid falling back into a corrective trade.
- On the Sell side REVERSAL strategies off the UP and UT1 will work best as any unsustained positive signal is expected to provide a sharp negative reaction. FADE strategies off the UP are valid but will work better after the 2nd or 3rd press into an area. BREAKOUT strategies below the DP are a lower probability and should be used as a signal for a FADE strategy against the DIR.
- On the Buy side FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended off the DP, especially if the previous session low point remains intact. BREAKOUT strategies should hold structure after a resistance breach if they are going to follow through. Any break in momentum and the market will be vulnerable to drop back into a digestive trade.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for EU
Wrap Up
Today in the EURO CURRENCY futures market, we have a perfect example of how JS Services Market Structure Bias [M.S.B.] can be used to successfully navigate a market. The EU had an MC change of -4 to produces an MC Value of +3 for the day. In a NEUTRAL POSITIVE EXTREME market state, our expectation is that in order for the positive sentiment to remain in tact, price must respect the level of Support at the R Level. If that level is broken, our expectation is that the market is transitioning into a Neutral Digestive state. With the R Level at the DP we are looking to accept DP FADE strategies. Since we are still in a NEUTRAL market state, our position management should be tight, and profits should be realized sooner rather than later. Late last night at 11 P.M. we have our first BUY DP FADE opportunity that takes us right up to the DIR just before 2 A.M. Then again around around 3 A.M. we have multiple attempts at the DP which held support, and offered traders another BUY DP FADE trade. Again, this trade made it up to the DIR giving traders a second profitable trade. After profits were realized on the second trade around 4:30 A.M., the market began to build NEGATIVE STRUCTURE by failing to produce higher move highs. Although the market did approach the DP again around 9:30, the BUY DP FADE trade would be suspect because each successive rally has produces lower move highs, indicating weakness on the side of the bulls. As you can see, the rally that occurred after 9:30 failed to reach the DIR and the R Level eventually gave way around 1:30 P.M.
Today's MARKET STATE for NATURAL GAS: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**
- The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult "choppy" trade. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade. UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.
- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for NG
Wrap Up
Today in the NATURAL GAS futures market we have an MC Value of +2 and a NEUTRAL DIGESTION Market State. Our focus today is on the MC Value of +2 indicating a NEUTRAL DIGESTION Market State. In this Market State, our expectation is that price action is going to stay WITHIN the Critical Range. With the R at the DIR, we want to accept BUY signals above this level, so our highest probability trade would be to get long from the DIR (R). Since we know that trading in this market state is expected to stay within the Critical Range, our price objective on this trade is the UP. As you can see the market respected the R level around 7:45 A.M. and rallied up to the UP, where profits should have been realized. Also, being aware that we are in a NEUTRAL DIGESTION (+2) Market State tells us that profits should be taken at the UP. By doing this, we save ourselves the headache of being in the market toward the end of the session when the price chopped around the UP.
Today's MARKET STATE for AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: **BEAR TREND**
- The MKT is in a soft neutral position. On the SELL side UP REVERSAL and FADE strategies with confirmation will be a better option over downside Breakouts, as selling into corrective reactions is the best position. The MKT remains negative but be patient as to not get caught FADING a corrective rise all the way up. DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid opportunities but look to take profits on emotional drops versus getting trail stopped on corrective pull backs.
- On the BUY side DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies should be looked at as a "one-shot" deal. Either the MKT railroads higher in a steady climb or it’s just a head fake to sell. If you get on a steady advance, ride it until structure is broken. DP and DT1 REVERSAL strategies are valid, as the neutral tone has the potential to produce false signals in either direction. Avoid DP FADE BUYS as the negative trend remains in force.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DA
Wrap Up
-Today was a choppy day in the AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR currency futures. With an MC value of -4, the market was in a BEAR TREND. The use of the Critical Range along with the R level proved to be very effective in navigating todays market. The Critical Range is our expected trading range for the day. Keeping this in mind, we must determine what that means in conjunction with the R level. Since the R is at the UP and the expectation is for the market to trade within the Critical Range, any rally up to the UP should be sold with a SELL UP FADE strategy. As you can see, this strategy worked perfectly at 2:45 A.M. after the double top and again at 6:45 A.M. By taking profits on both trades at the DIR, JS traders were able to net profits in a choppy trading environment.
Today's MARKET STATE for NATURAL GAS: **BULL TREND**
- The MKT has a firm tone and as long as the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long. On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight. REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for NG
Wrap Up
-Today in the NATURAL GAS futures market, we had an MC Value of +6 and a BULL TREND Market State. Our expectation is for a continuation of the bull trend, and as traders, we should look to get long the market ABOVE the R Level. Our Market commentary warns us that SELL signals are only valid opportunities until AFTER the positive structure of the market, represented by the R Level, has been broken. The market digested for the greater part of the morning session around the minor level at 3.573. Then, at 7:40 A.M. we get a breakout of the Critical Range at the DP. Since our R Level is at the DP, this signals the break in positive structure and allows us to execute a SELL DP BREAKOUT trade with a price target at the DT2. After selling off sharply to the DT1, the market stabilized for a bit, and eventually sold off all the way down to our expected downside target at the DT2 (3.450). By knowing where the Sentiment Bias lies within a market, agile traders could have profited from this corrective sell off.
Today's MARKET STATE for 5-YR TREASURY NOTES: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**
- Technically the MKT is "on the fence" with the potential to go in either direction or nowhere. Pick your points and have no expectations, as the likelihood of this MKT trading sideways is high.
- On the SELL side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The pivotal nature of the session does have the potential to be the starting point for a new move. However, the probability of any trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extreme.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The MKT is "on the fence" and does have the potential to be the beginning of a new trend move. The probability of a new trend move is low. However, any price trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extremes.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for FV
Wrap Up
- With an MC Value of +2 and a NEUTRAL DIGESTION Market State, today's expectation is for a digestive trade within the Critical Range. The R Level is above the market at the UP communicating to traders that they should be looking to get short below this level. At 11 A.M. the market traded up to the 124'180 level where it was met with resistance. After a brief pullback the market made another rally up to the UP. From here a SELL UP FADE strategy could have been executed as it is in line with our market expectations as well as sentiment bias for the day. After the intraday double top at the UP, the market sold off to the DIR where profits could have been realized. Due to the pivotal nature of this Market State, position management should be tight and profits should be realized sooner rather than later.
Today's MARKET STATE for NASDAQ 100: **NEUTRAL NEGATIVE EXTREME**
- The MKT is on the offer and pressing into the lower extreme. On the SELL side accept UP REVERSAL strategies over FADES, expecting more of a trendless trading environment rather than a new negative trend move. Avoid DP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE into a positive reaction after a negative breakdown signal against the DIR. The MKT is extended and will have trouble sustaining any new weakness. Use aggressive position management and anticipate potential early exit points to reduce profit give-back.
- On the BUY side DP FADE and REVERSAL strategies are qualified, however the FADE is a lower probability and should use tight risk criteria. DP and DT1 REVERSALS can risk more but should also go for more profit with the expectation of the MKT putting in a short term turning point signal. UP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive and should just "go" and not look back. Risk less; use aggressive position management and conservative profit limits.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for ND
Wrap Up
-Today we had a NEUTRAL NEGATIVE EXTREME Market State in the NASDAQ 100 Futures market. Our market commentary calls for SELL UP REVERSAL trades which is in line with our sentiment bias represented by the R Level. At 8:30 A.M. the market broke through the UP briefly and then sold off giving traders an opportunity to SELL the REVERSAL signal from the UP. The market again tested the UP just before 10 A.M. where it failed to produce a higher high before selling off sharply. The market wasted no time in falling down to the DIR where it digested for a bit and eventually traded down to our profit target at the DP. Today's NASDAQ 100 PriceMap illustrates the importance of defining Market State, Structure, and Strategy before each trading day.
