Tuesday, October 19, 2010
BRITISH POUND FUTURES - SET TO SWING
Technically the MKT is at a NEUTRAL NEGATIVE EXTREME and is ready to either pop back into a firm neutral posture or break into a new down trend. The MKT has produced a technical sell signal into support and is in a "Make or Break" scenario. Volatility as well is on the fence and ready to rise with a new trend move and decline with some sideways "positioning".
Key off the 15853 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session bias. Below here the negative sentiment hangs over the contract pressing support at 15667. A held trade below here is needed to keep the currency on edge.
On the SELL side accept FADE and BREAKOUT strategies expecting an immediate follow through to the MKT's technical sell signal. BREAKOUT strategies should be worked with the expectation that any sustained trade and repeated tests of support will give way to negative follow through. This strategy is vulnerable to the MKT expanding its lower support band in a series of starts and stops. Keep profit targets extended to pay for any monies spent holding a position. FADE strategies should expect an immediate reaction as any held trade or violation of major resistance foreshadows a potential turning point. These are good opportunities to "roll" into a long position when stopped out.
On the BUY side FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major support base are qualified however the FADE is a lower probability and should use tight risk criteria. REVERSALs can risk more but should also go for more profit with the expectation of a turning point "key reversal" signal to play out. BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive and should just "go" and not look back. Risk less and go for more. A laborious lack-luster rise after a positive breakout is a sign that the MKT is more likely expanding its resistance lid for a new consolidation verses transition from negative to positive technical posture.
Note: The MKT has produced a negative signal but it is not confirmed and trending indicators do not support follow through in either direction at this time. The MKT has the potential for big range conditions so don't get stuck FADing momentum in either direction.
JS
* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv .
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Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Eurex EUROStoxx Futures- DIZZY
Technically the MKT has produced a major positive signal into the upper extreme and will need to hold structure if it is going to avoid a drop back into a digestive trade. Key off the 2741.0 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session tone. If the MKT is going to hold structure it will maintain a trade above here. If not the contract is vulnerable to a retreat down to 2695.0, if not 2603. Notable resistance at 2787.0 will gauge any new strength.
On the SELL side UP FADE signals are valid but REVERSAL strategies are a better option. Have resting limit orders off support inflections and use aggressive position management to lock in any unrealized gains on any REVERSAL trade. DIR and DP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive but do have the potential to profit from a quick negative move out of the extreme. Use tight position management for these strategies as any unrealized profits can be erased quickly by the underlying positive momentum.
On the BUY side accept DP FADE signals after confirmation. The MKT is extended and may search for stops before it resumes its Bull move. REVERSAL strategies are a better option. The sharper the break, the better for an entry with the expectations that the MKT is going to revisit the recent move high. BUY DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies may need to be "worked" as the MKT is extended and has the potential to produce some starts and stops.
JS
* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv .
To learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach please contact me at info@jsservices.com . You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
US 30YR T-BOND Futures - CORRECTIVE
Technically the MKT has produced a big negative signal against a positive trend which will weigh on the MKT with all trading below the 134-04 Inflection Pivot.. Only a rise above here puts the contract back in a solid state.
On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies until after the previous session low point or major support level has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. REVERSAL strategies should be avoided as any positive signal is more likely an indication that the underlying trend is going to resume. SELL BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE long at support targets.
On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity. BREAKOUT strategies can risk a little more if current events confirm a positive posture. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction after a positive breakout signal as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.
JS
* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv .
To learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach please contact me at info@jsservices.com . You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
Thursday, October 7, 2010
SWISS FRANC Futures - EASTERN ALLY
Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a negative signal against a positive trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT however a held trade above the 10372 Inflection Pivot is needed to put this market back on the bright side. A held trade below this price point keeps the corrective signal in play and a failure from 10319 confirms fresh losses targeting 10213 on any new weakness. 10001 is the extended target.
On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies until after the previous session low point or major support level has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. Until then a better opportunity will be a REVERSAL strategy but only off the 1st major resistance level. This is a one shot trade using a low risk big profit target criteria. The idea is that if the MKT is going to follow through on its negative signal any strength is just a "head fake " before it follows through. SELL BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE long at support targets. The trade is corrective and the underlying positive tone must be respected.
On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. BREAKOUT strategies can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a positive posture with the expectation that the Bull Trend is going to resume. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction after a positive breakout signal as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.
Note: The MKT is in a corrective position with the potential to move in either direction. Keep your opinions to themselves and focus on what the MKT is telling you it wants to do. Don't fight it, roll with it.
JS
* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv .
To learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach please contact me at info@jsservices.com . You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
NASDAQ 100 Futures - NEW BEST FRIEND
Technically the MKT has produced a big positive signal and flirting with a shift into BULL TREND ACCELERATION position. Key off the 2010.50 Inflection Pivot. If the MKT is good it will maintain a trade above here and railroad higher. A breach of 2028.25 confirms this outlook targeting 2092 on any held advance. A break under 1992.75 removes the friendly feelings for this contract.
On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major resistance levels. Expectations should be for an immediate exhaustive turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area. A gradual decline following a reversal signal and it more likely just a pause before another round of buying, so in either scenario keep position management tight. Avoid SELL FADE strategies even with confirmation, as this is more likely a lid for a BREAKOUT BUY strategy. SELL BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against Directional Resistance.
On the BUY side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies above the previous sessions low point. BREAKOUT strategies should just "go", so do not risk much. Be wary of these strategies early in the session and look to exit on the 1st break in structure. BUY FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift. The MKT is aggressively bid which should keep pace throughout the session if the TREND ACCELERATION forecast is going to play out.
Note: The worst-case scenario for a MKT in this technical position is to go higher early in the session and then break all day. Be alert to recognize this. If you have > 3 loser long trades consider taking the next sell signal anticipating a corrective turn. Remember in this technical position if the MKT is going higher it should just go. If not there is the potential for a corrective break or digestive trading environment.
JS
* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv .
To learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach please contact me at info@jsservices.com . You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
CORN Fturures - BACK IN BIDNESS?
Technically the MKT is in a BULL TREND ACCELERATION posture and has produced a big positive signal. The MKT should "run" to a new level if the signal is valid.
Key off the 481-4 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session bias. A held trade above here keeps the contract aggressively bid targeting 515-4 on any new interest. A break under 481-4 puts the positive signal in question and the MKT back in a difficult sideways trade.
On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed at extremes following an exhaustive signal. Expectations should be for an immediate exhaustive turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area. A gradual decline following a reversal signal and it is more likely just a pause before another round of buying, so lock in any unrealized gains. SELL FADE strategies have potential but wait for repeated tests, with the best opportunity not violating the resistance level. Consider rolling long on any stops with this strategy. SELL BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against Directional resistance.
On the BUY side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies above the previous session's low point. BREAKOUT strategies early in the session may have issues holding structure, so respect any break in momentum. BUY FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift. The MKT is aggressively bid which should keep pace throughout the session if the TREND ACCELERATION forecast is going to play out.
Note: The worst-case scenario for a MKT in this technical position is to go higher early in the session and then break all day. Be alert and recognize this. If you have > 3 loser long trades, consider taking the next sell signal, anticipating a corrective turn. Remember in this technical position if the MKT is going higher, it should just go. If not, there is the potential for a corrective break or digestive trading environment.
JS
* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv .
To learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach please contact me at info@jsservices.com . You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
Monday, October 4, 2010
Eurex BOBL Futures - NEW INTEREST
Technically the MKT is in a BULL TREND ACCELERATION posture and has produced a big positive signal. The MKT should "run" to a new level if the signal is valid targeting 121.23 on any positive follow through. Key off the 120.46 Inflection Pivot. This is the base supporting the underlying positive momentum. If the MKT is heading higher it will not do much if any trading below here. A breach of 120.89 confirms fresh interest.
On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed at extremes following an exhaustive signal. Expectations should be for an immediate exhaustive turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area. A gradual decline following a reversal signal and it is more likely just a pause before another round of buying, so lock in any unrealized gains. SELL FADE strategies have potential but wait for repeated tests, with the best opportunity not violating the resistance level. Consider rolling long on any stops with this strategy. SELL BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against Directional resistance.
On the BUY side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies above the previous session's low point. BREAKOUT strategies early in the session may have issues holding structure, so respect any break in momentum. BUY FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift. The MKT is aggressively bid which should keep pace throughout the session if the TREND ACCELERATION forecast is going to play out.
Note: The worst-case scenario for a MKT in this technical position is to go higher early in the session and then break all day. Be alert and recognize this. If you have > 3 loser long trades, consider taking the next sell signal, anticipating a corrective turn. Remember in this technical position if the MKT is going higher, it should just go. If not, there is the potential for a corrective break or digestive trading environment.
JS
* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME _EntryStrategies5min.wmv.
To learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach please contact me at info@jsservices.com . You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
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