USDJPY Forex - SMOKE AND MIRRORS

Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND CORRECTION but remains vulnerable to downside with all trading below 8948. Positive corrective action can disappear quickly so avoid leveraging up on any rally as the negative momentum will try to re-establish itself.


Key off the 8838 Inflection Pivot. This is the base keeping the positive corrective trade alive. A failure here is needed to put the currency back on the ropes.

On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies. BREAKOUT strategies below 8838 should just "go" with expectations that the negative momentum is going to resume course. These opportunities should be executed as a "one-shot" deal to avoid getting "chopped" up in a digestive trade. A more conservative entry would be to wait for a positive reaction after a negative breakout signal to FADE against 8893. FADE strategies at 8948 and 8999 should wait for confirmation as the MKT is correcting and has the potential to be "stop and go" as it probes higher. Keep profit targets tight. A better strategy is a REVERSAL, as a violation of a major inflection point that cannot be held is a negative turning point signal with the potential to be the resumption of the negative trend. Profit targets on these strategies should be greater.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT strategies above 8948 although aggressive can be profitable as long as the corrective rise maintains structure. Once broken any trading from the long side is questionable and it may be time to roll the other direction. Use basic trend following indicators to aid in position management of these trades. REVERSAL strategies off 8838 or near the previous session or move low will work best with the expectations that the MKT is going to shift into a more neutral digestive state. Keep profit targets and position management tight on these strategies.

Note: The MKT is correcting an aggressive negative trend and more likely to resume that trend than not. This being said the worst case scenario for sellers expecting the trend to resume is a low volatility "one-way" trade higher. Don't be stubborn FADING higher corrective move highs. After 2 or more losing sales take a break and wait for potential opportunity in the later part of the session. JS


* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv  .

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Canadian Dollar Futures - TRUTH OR DARE

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL DIGESTIVE position with a negative bias. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT but the threat of a negative turn is real.

Key off the 9606 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session tone. If the MKT is bad it will struggle to maintain a trade above here. If so a difficult sideways trade is expected with 9692 the expected digestive high point.


On the SELL side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 9606 should just "go" and not look back, so keep risk parameters tight. FADE strategies after a negative breakdown signal are good opportunities as well against 9649 but expectation should be for the MKT to quickly move back under the failed support. If the trade just "hangs around" is more likely a signal that more digestive action is coming and a retest of resistance should be expected. Be more aggressive with FADE and REVERSAL strategies at 9692 or against the previous session high point targeting the opposing digestive support. Above the previous session high point entering after the 2nd or 3rd press into an area is recommended over stepping in front of the initial challenge.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT strategies above 9692 are aggressive and should be entered sooner [lower] than later [higher]. Expectations should be for the MKT to make its move early in the session and not look back, holding strucutre most of the day. If the MKT digests prior to making a positive move it is more likely a short squeeze to FADE. BUY FADE strategies off 9606 are aggressive and if they are going to work should do so on the initial test of support. Repeated tests or "confirmation" are more likely to give way to a lower trade. BUY REVERSAL strategies at 9606 are recommended off the session initial major support only, as the MKT is vulnerable to a negative trend shift. The probability is to the downside today so don't get stubborn buying breaks.

Note: The MKT is in neutral so "sloppy" conditions with "false signals" should be anticipated. Have a plan for any squeeze. Don't get stubborn however if the MKT starts to hold structure and gets into trend mode as the contract may just be expanding its digestive parameters producing a one way trade into the close and new extreme.
 
JS


* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv .

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SP500 INDEX Futures - EXTENDED

Technically the MKT has produced a major positive signal into the upper extreme and will need to hold structure if it is going to avoid a drop back into a digestive trade.

Key off the 1054 Inflection Pivot as the low point for the underlying positive structure. If the bias is going to remain firm and pull-back will bottom out above here. A held breach of 1079.50 shifts the Index back into a positive position for a new leg north.

On the SELL side FADE signals are valid but REVERSAL strategies are a better option at the 1079.50 resistance pivot. Have resting limit orders off support inflections and use aggressive position management to lock in any unrealized gains on any REVERSAL trade. 1071 and 1062.50 BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive but do have the potential to profit from a quick negative move out of the extreme targeting the 1054 support. Use tight position management for these strategies as any unrealized profits can be erased quickly by the underlying positive momentum.

On the BUY side accept FADE at 1062.50 and 1054 signals after confirmation. The MKT is extended and may search for stops before it resumes its Bull move. REVERSAL strategies are a better option. The sharper the break, the better for an entry with the expectations that the MKT is going to revisit the recent move high. BUY DIR and BREAKOUT strategies above 1079.50may need to be "worked" as the MKT is extended and has the potential to produce some starts and stops.

JS


* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv .


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DOW FUTURES - TRYING TO TURN THE CORNER

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a big positive signal against a negative trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT.

Key off the 9952 Inflection Pivot today. This is the base supporting the MKTs new found strength. Above here the corrective trade continues. Below here and the fear factor returns.

On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the negative momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies off the 10144 resistance, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the integrity of the resistance before executing a sale against it. BREAKOUT strategies below 10028 and 9952 can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a negative posture. If not a better approach would be to FADE a positive "squeeze" reaction after a negative breakdown signal against 10067 as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

On the BUY side avoid FADE strategies off the 10028 and 9952 support levels until after the previous session high point or major resistance level has been taken out to confirm a positive shift in momentum. REVERSAL strategies should be avoided as any negative signal is more likely an indication that the underlying trend is going to resume. BUY BREAKOUT strategies above 10144 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE short at resistance targets. The trade is counter trend so avoid any positive commitments.

Note: The MKT has produced a big technical signal against the current trend. Be aware that the positive action may be a 1-day event with the negative trend quickly re-establishing itself. If the MKT is really going to turn it should remain firm and not look back.

JS


* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv  .

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U.S. 30YR Treasury Bond Futures - TIME TO PLAY A CARD

Technically the MKT is in NEUTRAL TRANSITION and difficult trading conditions are expected. The MKT has produced a negative signal which should follow through today if the signal is valid with confirmation a break under the 126-19 Inflection Pivot. If the integrity of the 126-19 Inflection Pivot remains intact a return to a sideways trend less trade is likely. Roll with any new weakness below here and leverage up if good risk parameters present themselves. The potential to get in at the beginning of a new move lower is real.

On the SELL side be more aggressive after the 126-19 level is taken out. Not that this is a precondition but should be noted as a confirmation of weakness. BREAKOUT strategies below should just "go" so keep risk parameters tight. FADE into any positive reaction off an unsuccessful downside BREAKOUT against the 127-14 level. Use a REVERSAL strategy to leverage up back under the original failure point. If the integrity of the 126-19 level hold, avoid REVERSAL strategies at the 128-09 resistance level as any break in the negative momentum is a positive signal that the MKT is going to return to its neutral posture. FADE strategies against here are recommended early in the session or near the end. The negative signal will either play out from the get go or will weigh on the MKT in the latter stages of the trading session.


On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of 126-19. Avoid this strategy on lower levels as any new weakness has the potential to be the beginning of a move. FADE strategies can be accepted at or near this inflection point on the initial test with tight profit target objectives. If the MKT has already had a reaction off this support area avoid this strategy. Use BREAKOUT strategies above 128-09 as a signal to FADE a negative pull-back off 127-14 after a confirm break in the negative momentum. Only take this trade if the 126-19 support remains intact. Otherwise this will be a SELL REVERSAL opportunity.

Note: Transitional trading conditions are difficult and can be full of false stops and starts. Be ready for a move but be prepared to work for it.

JS



* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv  .

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GOLD Futures - LOST LUSTER

Technically the MKT is in NEUTRAL TRANSITION and difficult trading conditions are expected. The MKT has produced a negative signal which should follow through today if the signal is valid. If the integrity of the prior session's low remains intact a return to a sideways trend less trade is likely. Roll with any new weakness and leverage up if good risk parameters present themselves. The potential to get in at the beginning of a new move lower is real.

Key off the 1212.6 Inflection Pivot. This is the high point for any positive squeeze if the negative signal is going to follow through.

On the SELL side be more aggressive after the previous session low is taken out. Not that this is a pre-condition but should be noted as a confirmation of weakness. BREAKOUT strategies below 1183.5 should just "go" so keep risk parameters tight. FADE into any positive reaction off an unsuccessful downside BREAKOUT against 1193.2. Use a REVERSAL strategy to leverage up back under the original failure point under 1183.5. If the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, avoid REVERSAL strategies against 1212.6 as any break in the negative momentum is a positive signal that the MKT is going to return to its neutral posture. FADE strategies at 1202.9 and 1212.6 are recommended early in the session or near the end. The negative signal will either play out from the get go or will weigh on the MKT in the latter stages of the trading session.

On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off 1183.5 or near the previous session low point. Avoid this strategy on lower levels as any new weakness has the potential to be the beginning of a move. If the integrity of the previous session low remains intact FADE strategies can be accepted at or near this inflection point on the initial test with tight profit target objectives. If the MKT has already had a reaction off this support area avoid this strategy. Use BREAKOUT strategies above 1212.6 as a signal to FADE a negative pull-back at 1193.2 after a confirm break in the negative momentum. Only take this trade if the previous session low point remains intact. Otherwise this will be a SELL REVERSAL opportunity.

Note: Transitional trading conditions are difficult and can be full of false stops and starts. Be ready for a move but be prepared to work for it.

JS


* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min webvideo explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv  .

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EURUSD FOREX - TRYING TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE

Technically the MKT is in a DIGESTIVE BULL TREND and is flirting with a shift into a more aggressive positive position. Look for excuses to get long but respect the digestive nature and avoid pressing any position.

Key off the 12483 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the markets tone. As long as the currency is above this price point the bias is positive. A failure here and the digestive nature of the technical state will take over.
On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies and use a REVERSAL instead against the 12610 resistance pivot. The MKT is excited but has yet to confirm any new advance. Expectations are that any false positive breakout signal will be met with a sharp negative reaction. BREAKOUT strategies below 12483 are a lower probability but are valid and in line with a reversal scenario. If the MKT has already produced a false positive signal and is holding negative reversal structure, this strategy has potential. Expectations are that any negative BREAKOUT should just go and with the MKT staying under pressure into the close and expanding the digestive range. Anticipate a positive turn and consider reversing off lower support structure.

On the BUY side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies. BREAKOUT strategies above the 12610 resistance have the potential to run. If so, they will just "go" and not look back. Any stop and go action and any profits should be realized as it is more likely the MKT will be setting up a re-test of support to FADE before it can extend higher. FADE and REVERSAL strategies should work off 12483 and only provide one opportunity. Repeated tests or base building and it is more likely the MKT is going to search for its lower digestive extreme rather than resume a positive course.

Note: The MKT has produced a positive signal but is not confirmed. Be ready for it but if it does not materialize, beware of a negative reaction. Don't get caught fading a break that continues to hold structure as the MKT may be defining its lower digestive extreme and will most likely find it after it hits your last sell stop.

JS

* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min webvideo explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies  http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv .

To learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.