MKTstate

Thursday, May 6, 2010

10YR T-NOTE Futures - BULL TREND EXTREME

** BULL TREND EXTREME **- Technically the MKT is at the positive extreme and is flirting with an exhaustive turn. Keep your dancing shoes on this Technical State has the potential to get a little wild.

Key off the 120-06 Inflection Pivot today for an indication of the session tone. All trading below here keeps the contract vulnerable to a retreat.

On the SELL side accept REVERSAL strategies off 120-25 and 121-215 resistance levels should work on the initial break in momentum if they are going to. BREAKOUT strategies below 119-19 are aggressive but do have the potential to be the start of a corrective turn, so look to get in early on the initial break in structure. Lock in any unrealized profit on these strategies, as the underlying momentum remains positive. 118-13 and 117-15 are the lower targets.

- On the BUY side accept FADE signals off the 119-00 and 118-13 major support levels after the 2nd or 3rd confirmation. The MKT is extended and may need to digest a bit before it produces a positive push. REVERSAL strategies are valid off all major support inflection points as well as the 119-19 support pivot, with the expectation that the underlying positive tone will try to assert itself. The outlook after a REVERSAL signal will be more firm digestive than positive trend. BREAKOUT strategies above 120-06 and 120-25 should just go, so keep stops and position management tight. If not the likelihood of a sideways trade developing is high.

Note: The MKT is extended and any push to new move highs is not expected to be sustained. Emotional trading conditions are expected.

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Wednesday, May 5, 2010

USDJPY - CORRECTIVE SIGNAL = OPPORTUNITY

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a big negative signal against a positive trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT however the underlying positive tone will maintain the controls above the 9350 Inflection Pivot.

On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies against 9493 until after the previous session low point or major support level has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. REVERSAL strategies should be avoided as any positive signal is more likely an indication that the underlying trend is going to resume. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 9350 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE long at support targets. The trade is counter trend so avoid any negative commitments.

On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies at the 9350 level, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. BREAKOUT strategies above 9493 can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a positive posture. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction down to 9422 after a positive breakout signal above 9493 as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

Note: The MKT has produced a big technical signal against the current trend. Be aware that the negative action may be a 1-day event with the positive trend quickly re-establishing itself. If the MKT is really going to turn it should remain hard pressed and provide little or no relief.

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

SP500 - VULNERABLE

The SP500 broke out to the down shifting into a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION technical state. If the negative signal is going to follow through the Index will not do much if any trading above the 1173.75 Inflection Pivot.

This is the price point which will determine today's bias. Below here the pressure stays on high targeting 1156.50 and 1146.50 on any new weakness. Use caution. Although reactions are expected this sell off does have the potential to flush down to 1131.50.

A held trade above 1173.75 takes the edge off for a difficult trade up to 1183. If the MKT is going to fall back into a soft sideways trade any show of strength will fizzle here. If not a play for the 1202-1199 resistance band is the outlook. Expect no follow through.

Note: The MKT produced a major negative technical signal which should at least produce a new move low. If not it is an underlying sign of strength that will foreshadow a resumption of the underlying positive momentum targeting 1225.

Monday, May 3, 2010

10YR T-NOTE - SPIN CYCLE

Technically the MKT is in a DIGESTIVE BULL TREND with a slight negative tone. The MKT is searching for support so wait for a positive signal instead of trying to create one.

Key off the 117-085 Inflection Pivot today as this is the expected low point for any new weakness if the MKT is going to end the session in positive territory.

On the SELL side FADE and REVERSAL signals off the 117-295 resistance level are valid. The MKT has a soft tone and is expected to probe lower as long as the intra-day structure is negative. Keep position management and profit targets aggressive, as these trades are counter trend. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 117-085 are more aggressive, as follow through to the downside is not expected at this time.

On the BUY side accept REVERSAL strategies off the 117-085 and 116-300 support levels with the expectation that any signal has the potential to be the beginning of the next leg higher. BUY FADE strategies off 117-085 will need confirmation before they should be accepted. In addition any test may need to build a base before it can mount a sustained positive push, so expect a laborious trade. BREAKOUT strategies above 117-19 and the 117-295 resistance pivot are valid however the digestive trade will make FADE strategies off support on a "pullback" after a BREAKOUT signal a better opportunity.

Note: The MKT has any underlying positive tone but may probe lower to define its digestive range.

JS

Join our "LIVE" TRADE ROOM and learn JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach using CLEARBOX automated strategies! For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

Sunday, May 2, 2010

SP500 - TIME TO PLAY A CARD

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a big negative signal against a positive trend. If the negative signal is going to follow through it should do so from the get go and not look back. Any break in the negative structure is a signal that the positive trend will try to reassert itself.

Key off the 1187 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session tone.

On the SELL side FADE strategies should work on the initial test at 1187 and the 1194.25 resistance pivot and immediately turn the market lower. Repeated tests is a sign that the market will try to probe higher. REVERSAL strategies should be avoided as any positive signal is more likely an indication that the underlying trend is going to resume. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below the 1177.75 support pivot can be profitable but they are after a major negative signal and have the potential to be stop and go. The trade has the potential to be the beginning of a major sentiment shift if it turns sour.

On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies off the 1177.75 and 1169.50 support levels, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. BREAKOUT strategies above 1187 and the 1194.25 resistance pivot can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a positive posture. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction at 1187 after a positive breakout signal above 1194.25 as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

NAT GAS M'10 - TEMPERATURE CHANGE

Tchnically the market is in a BEAR TREND but in a DIGESTIVE posture. The MKT has produced a big negative signal but has yet to confirm a shift into trend mode. Look for excuses to get short below the 4.191 Inflection Pivot.

On the SELL side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below the 3.947 support pivot may need to be "worked" as the big negative signal will have the sellers excited. FADE strategies against 4.191 after a negative breakdown signal are good opportunities as well and can provide favorable area to put on leverage against structure. Be more aggressive with FADE and REVERSAL strategies at or against the previous session high point targeting the opposing digestive support. Above the previous session high point entering after the 2nd or 3rd press into an area is recommended over stepping in front of the initial challenge.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT strategies above 4.191 are aggressive and should be entered sooner [lower] than later [higher]. Expectations should be for the MKT to make its move early in the session and not look back, holding structure most of the day producing a positive "reversal" signal. If the MKT digests prior to making a positive move it is more likely a short squeeze to FADE. BUY FADE strategies off the 3.947 support pivot are aggressive and if they are going to work should do so on the initial test of support. Repeated tests or "confirmation" are more likely to give way to a lower trade. BUY REVERSAL strategies are not recommended as any failure is confirmation of a negative trend shift. The probability is to the downside today so don't get stubborn buying breaks.

Note: The MKT has produced a big negative signal and is flirting with a turn for the worse. If it does not follow through on any new weakness it is more likely a nuetral shift than a positive one.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

CORN N'10 - POSITIVE SIGNAL IN PLAY ABOVE 363-4

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state and has produced a big positive signal against a negative trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT however the potential for a positive shift in sentiment is real with all trading above the 363-4 Inflection Pivot.

On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the negative momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies at 369-0 are recommended over a FADE strategies, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the integrity of the resistance before executing a sale against it. BREAKOUT strategies below 358-0 can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a negative posture. If not a better approach would be to FADE a positive "squeeze" reaction against 363-4 after a negative breakdown signal as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

On the BUY side avoid FADE strategies at 363-4 and 358-0 until after the previous session high point or major resistance level has been taken out to confirm a positive shift in momentum. REVERSAL strategies should be avoided as any negative signal is more likely an indication that the underlying trend is going to resume. BUY BREAKOUT strategies above 369-0 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE short at resistance targets. The trade is counter trend so avoid any positive commitments.

Note: The MKT has produced a big technical signal against the current trend. Be aware that the positive action may be a 1-day event with the negative trend quickly re-establishing itself. If the MKT is really going to turn it should remain firm and not look back maintaining positive structure.