Thursday, April 29, 2010

NAT GAS M'10 - TEMPERATURE CHANGE


Tchnically the market is in a BEAR TREND but in a DIGESTIVE posture. The MKT has produced a big negative signal but has yet to confirm a shift into trend mode. Look for excuses to get short below the 4.191 Inflection Pivot.

On the SELL side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below the 3.947 support pivot may need to be "worked" as the big negative signal will have the sellers excited. FADE strategies against 4.191 after a negative breakdown signal are good opportunities as well and can provide favorable area to put on leverage against structure. Be more aggressive with FADE and REVERSAL strategies at or against the previous session high point targeting the opposing digestive support. Above the previous session high point entering after the 2nd or 3rd press into an area is recommended over stepping in front of the initial challenge.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT strategies above 4.191 are aggressive and should be entered sooner [lower] than later [higher]. Expectations should be for the MKT to make its move early in the session and not look back, holding structure most of the day producing a positive "reversal" signal. If the MKT digests prior to making a positive move it is more likely a short squeeze to FADE. BUY FADE strategies off the 3.947 support pivot are aggressive and if they are going to work should do so on the initial test of support. Repeated tests or "confirmation" are more likely to give way to a lower trade. BUY REVERSAL strategies are not recommended as any failure is confirmation of a negative trend shift. The probability is to the downside today so don't get stubborn buying breaks.
Note: The MKT has produced a big negative signal and is flirting with a turn for the worse. If it does not follow through on any new weakness it is more likely a nuetral shift than a positive one.
JS

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Wednesday, April 28, 2010

CORN N'10 - POSITIVE SIGNAL IN PLAY ABOVE 363-4


Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state and has produced a big positive signal against a negative trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT however the potential for a positive shift in sentiment is real with all trading above the 363-4 Inflection Pivot.

On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the negative momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies at 369-0 are recommended over a FADE strategies, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the integrity of the resistance before executing a sale against it. BREAKOUT strategies below 358-0 can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a negative posture. If not a better approach would be to FADE a positive "squeeze" reaction against 363-4 after a negative breakdown signal as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.
On the BUY side avoid FADE strategies at 363-4 and 358-0 until after the previous session high point or major resistance level has been taken out to confirm a positive shift in momentum. REVERSAL strategies should be avoided as any negative signal is more likely an indication that the underlying trend is going to resume. BUY BREAKOUT strategies above 369-0 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE short at resistance targets. The trade is counter trend so avoid any positive commitments.

Note: The MKT has produced a big technical signal against the current trend. Be aware that the positive action may be a 1-day event with the negative trend quickly re-establishing itself. If the MKT is really going to turn it should remain firm and not look back maintaining positive structure.

JS

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Tuesday, April 27, 2010

SP500 Index Futures - TIME TO PLAY A CARD


Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a big negative signal against a positive trend. If the negative signal is going to follow through it should do so from the get go and not look back. Any break in the negative structure is a signal that the positive trend will try to reassert itself.
Key off the 1171.50 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session bias. If the market is going to crumble it will have to overwhelm this support area.

On the SELL side FADE strategies should work on the initial test of the 1187 resistance pivot and immediately turn the market lower. Repeated tests is a sign that the market will try to probe higher. REVERSAL strategies should be avoided as any positive signal is more likely an indication that the underlying trend is going to resume. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 1171.50 can be profitable but they are after a major negative signal and have the potential to be stop and go. The trade has the potential to be the beginning of a major sentiment shift if it turns sour.
On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies off the 1171.50 support pivot, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. BREAKOUT strategies above 1187 can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a positive posture. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction down to the 1179.25 Directional pivot after a positive breakout signal as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

Note: The MKT has produced a big technical signal against the current trend. Be aware that the negative action may be a 1-day event with the positive trend quickly re-establishing itself. If the MKT is really going to turn it should remain hard pressed and provide little or no relief. Don't fight any sustained weakness as the potential for a sentiment shift is real.

JS

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Monday, April 26, 2010

DOW FUTURES - TIGHT ROPE


The MKT is pressing into an exhaustive extreme and is vulnerable to a corrective trade. Respect positive structure but be ready to roll with any negative turn expecting a play for the 11080 Inflection Pivot. Key off the 11221 resistance inflection for the upside exhaustion signal.
On the Sell side REVERSAL strategies off the 11221 and 11315 resistance levels will work best as any unsustained positive signal is expected to provide a sharp negative reaction. FADE strategies against 11221 are valid but will work better after the 2nd or 3rd press into an area. BREAKOUT strategies below 11127 are a lower probability but do have the potential to provide an emotional release down to 11080 and 10962.
On the Buy side FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended off 11127 and 11080. BREAKOUT strategies above the 11221 resistance pivot should hold structure after a resistance breach if they are going to follow through. Any break in momentum and the market will be vulnerable to drop back into a digestive trade.

Note: The MKT has stalled and may need a session or two to catch its breath or it already has. Keep an open mind and let the MKT tell you was is.

JS


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Thursday, April 22, 2010

EUREX BUND - MIXED SIGNALS


The MKT is holding firm but remains in a corrective posture down to the 12345 Inflection Pivot. This is the low point for any setback if the underlying tone is going to remain positive.
On the SELL side accept FADE signals against the 12419 resistance pivot only on the 2nd or 3rd confirmation. REVERSAL strategies should only be done off 12419 or the previous session high point at 12431 and will immediately work if they are going to. Keep position and risk management tight on these trades. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 12345 will work better as a signal for a FADE of Directional resistance at 12390 with profit targets at the 12361 support area. The underlying tone is positive and negative follow through is not expected.

On the BUY side accept REVERSAL signals off all major inflection levels, expecting the underlying positive momentum to resume. FADE strategies off ther 12361 and 12345 support Inflection Pivot will work better with confirmation as the MKT is in a corrective state and will be probing lower looking for soft spots. Work any BUY BREAKOUT strategies above the 12419 resistance pivot as any positive shift in momentum has the potential to be the start of the next leg higher.

Note: The MKT is in a corrective position and sharp negative sell offs are not expected to follow through. If after a break the MKT stabilizes and starts to build structure, look for buy opportunities and work it until that structure is broken.

JS

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Wednesday, April 21, 2010

EuroFX - PULL THE RUG


Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION position and is vulnerable to the offer with all trading below the 13522 Inflection Pivot. Any positive corrective action is expected to be short lived with only one upside "stop squeeze" if the negative moemtnum is going to play out. Any held strength and repeated probe higher is a sign that the trade will turn digestive. This does not take away from the negative bias but does limit the profit potential for any new sales in the session.


On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below the previous sessions high point. BREAKOUT strategies below the 13327 support pivot should just "go", so do not risk much. FADE strategies against 13457 resisstance and the 13522 Inflection Pivot are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any momentum shift should be considered a potential positive corrective turn.

On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off major support levels as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies and opportunities to SELL into and FADE. BREAKOUT strategies above 13457 and 13522 are a long shot, so risk less and go for more. Any BUY FADE should have confirmation and are not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact. After a break in the negative structure confirmed support levels can be used for short term reactions using aggressive position management.

Note: The MKT is in an aggressive sell posture. If the previous session high is intact its just a matter of time before the sellers try to overwhelm the MKT. Look for excuses to get short. If the previous session high is breached opportunity will be on both sides of the MKT, however the bias still rests with the Bears.


JS


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Tuesday, April 20, 2010

USDJPY - BACK ON THE FENCE

The USDJPY is trying to make a difference set to press good directional resistance at the 9385-9354 resistance band. If the currency is going to find religion it will in this zone. Jump on any negative REVERSAL signals in this or against this price band expecting a sharp rejection back down to 9238 with the potential of sending the MKT as low as 9091 on the move.

A held trade above 9372 must be confirmed above 9385 to confirm a positive shift. Roll with this signal buying any setbacks down to 9296 with the expectation that this is the beginning of the next leg higher targeting 9548 and 9780 on the move.

JS

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