USDJPY - Negative Signal needs confirmation

The USDJPY is flirting with a negative shift in sentiment and will maintain this posture below the 9621 Inflection Pivot. This is the high point for any buying today if the negative signal is going to follow through and the best entry for any short position. Look for FADE opportunities as any test of resistance is expected to be met with a sharp rebuke. A held violation of 9627-9621 negates the negative signal putting the MKT back into a difficult digestive trade up to 9884 on any positive shift in sentiment.





A break under 9471 is needed to confirm Monday's signal targeting 9321 on any negative follow through. The MKT is having trouble sustaining any new move and this is not expected to change. Expect stop and go conditions with 9130 the release low point for any unwinding.

9546 will act as a good pivotal level within the 9621- 9471 digestive range.


JS



This commentary supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

SP500 - Back on the Fence

The SP500 U’09 contract followed through to the downside and is flirting with a negative shift in sentiment after producing a negative acceleration signal with Thursday's action.

908 remains the Inflection Pivot to key off for the MKT bias. Trading below here has the contract hard pressed with the 875 and 862.50 support target levels in play for any downside follow through.


As a practical application to entry strategies using Inflection Pivots lets review the action from the July 2, 2009 post.



The MKT started the session above the 908 Inflection Pivot with a positive signal bias providing a FADE buy as the initial opportunity, which resulted in a stop loss of -4pts.



The 908 level was identified as pivotal with a counter signal negative opportunity on a breakdown failure. “A break under 908-907.25 negates the positive signal and turns sentiment sour targeting 889.50 on any negative turn of events.”



The Index provided a BREAKOUT signal which attained the initial downside target resulting in a +17pt gain.

A FADE and BREAKOUT are two classic entry strategies to use when trading an Inflection Pivot. The other strategy is a REVERSAL.



The REVERSAL strategy played out this week in the Crude Oil Q'09 contract. From the 6-29-2009 post the 70.85 was identified as the Inflection Pivot.



Monday's action produced a negative signal and Tuesday's action started off below the 70.85 Inflection Pivot putting the MKT in a negative bias. After a false BREAKOUT the MKT produced a REVERSAL and followed through down to the 66.90 target.



Using defined entry strategies off qualified Inflection Pivots provides hard structure that allows you to define your risk. With proper risk management you are able to put yourself into opportunities where you can be wrong more times than you are right and still be profitable.

JS

This commentary supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.

The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

SP500 – Positive signal needs confirmation

The SP500 produced an Uptrend Acceleration signal, which will remain in play with all trading above the 908 Inflection Pivot.

An Uptrend Acceleration signal is when the MKT has been trading in a digestive state and takes the 1st step in transitioning to a more aggressive Bull Trend posture. Under the current technical conditions this signal will remain true above 908, which is the ideal entry area for any longs today.

Keep a positive outlook above 908 expecting a challenge to the 926.50 resistance pivot. If the signal is going to fizzle the rally will top out here. A held violation of 926.50 puts the MKT in an bid posture but a breach of 931.25 is needed to give the acceleration signal its due targeting 962.50 on the initial move.



A break under 908-907.25 negates the positive signal and turns sentiment sour targeting 889.50 on any negative turn of events. This sell off can slide as low as 971 without sounding off any alarms. Only under 962.50 are the Bears back forecasting a return of the fear factor.

Acceleration signals have the potential to be the kick start to a new move. The danger is that the the signal was false and a counter reaction is produced. By entering at qualified Inflection Pivots you reduce this risk and improve your odds of success.



JS

This commentary supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach.For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.* The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

Brent Crude Oil - Is that it?

BRENT CRUDE OIL fell just shy of the resistance target published in the May 21,2009 post.

Is that it?

The MKT had a nice rebuke but it is too early to tell if the underlying positive momentum is at risk. Reactions should always be expected at major areas of inflection. This reaction for now is keeping the buyers honest with their leverage. Expect the 68.00 area to be pivotal. Only under 66.60 does sentiment shift negative target the 58.80-58.40 support band initially.



If the MKT is bad it should just go. Any digestive action is a positive signal. A breach of 71.43 is a sign that the MKT wants to make another run at the 74.10 target resistance area if not 78.90.



JS



This commentary supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach.For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.* The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

CRUDE OIL - What's UP with that?

What’s up with CL?

The AUG’09 CRUDE OIL contract closed firm and is flirting with further gains.

Key off the 70.85 Inflection Pivot today for an indication of the session’s tone. Above here the buyers will remain aggressive pressing resistance at 72.27 and 72.77. Be patient. If the momentum is going to fizzle it will here. A held violation confirms a positive breakout signal targeting 74.80 on the initial push. 76.20 and 77.50 are the extended targets for any new leg north.

CRUDE OIL Q'09 DAILY


A break under 70.85 and the MKT is vulnerable to more difficult choppy digestive action down to the 67.33-66.90 support band. This is the base supporting any new consolidation if the positive momentum is going to pick back up. A break under this support inflection negates the underlying positive sentiment putting the 63.00 level in play.



JS



This commentary supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach.For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.* The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

SP 500 - Positive Signal Technical Signal

The SP500 closed firm posting a positive technical signal and will keep an aggressive buy posture above 901 targeting 928.50 on any new interest today. A breach of 919.25 confirms this forecast.


894.50 is the Inflection Pivot for Friday June 26, 2009.


Above 894.50 breaks are buying opportunity. Only under yesterday’s low at 891 is the MKT back on the defensive and threatening down to 873 and 868.50.

931.25-928 is the lid for any follow through to today’s positive signal. Be patient. If the corrective trade of late is going to continue the MKT will reject here. A Daily close or sustained breach of 928.75 and the momentum is expected to accelerate to new move highs at 962.50.

The confluence between the Indices continued on Thursday June 24, 2009 with the ND100 taking the lead. Notice the ND100 rejecting from its resistance pivot [UP – Upside Pivot] at 12noon when the SP500 was trying to bust of its Critical Range violation at 910.50.

Price Map Chart Overlay for June 25, 2009

ND100 Index

SP500 Index

Expect the confluence to continue with the SP500 taking the lead today.

Is the MKT really that strong that Monday’s negative signal could not even press into support or is it just house cleaning after the roll. Most likely we will have to wait till next week to find out.

JS

This commentary supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach.

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.

* The Price Map levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

SP500 - Confluence Indicator

The SP500 had a messy session after breaking out above Wednesday’s 895.25 Inflection Pivot. The MKT is transitioning back into a neutral position with the Weekly resistance area at 931-928 the digestive lid.

Thursday’s, 6/25/2009, action will focus on the 910.50 – 902.00 Critical Range. This is the area of indecision today with the current positive momentum maintaining the controls above 902. A break under this support pivot is needed to bring back the sellers putting the 870.00 target back in play and the contract vulnerable to a negative sentiment shift.

A rise above 910.50 and the positive momentum does its best to impress with the 919.50 and 929 resistance targeted. Look for exhaustive sell signals. No follow through is expected at this time.

Wednesday provided a key indicator of confluence in both the DOW Futures and ND100 for the SP500. Note the 10am highs in all three indices. When the SP500 violated its resistance both the ND100 and DOW did not.

JS Services Price Map Chart Overlay for June 24, 2009

ND100 Index

SP500 Index

DOW Futures Index

The DOW proved to be the best barometer of the late weakness as it rejected from it’s session Inflection Pivot [R Level] and produced a REVERSAL signal under it’s resistance pivot [UP – Upside Pivot] prior to the late sell off in the SP500.

Watch for confluence signals again today. If the markets are going to make a move they will be in sync. If not it is more likely going to be a choppy re-run of Wednesday.

This commentary supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach.

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.

JS

* The Price Map levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Strategy Runner, Ninja Trader and eSignal. Sign up for a Free Trial.