CRUDE OIL - What's UP with that?

What’s up with CL?

The AUG’09 CRUDE OIL contract closed firm and is flirting with further gains.

Key off the 70.85 Inflection Pivot today for an indication of the session’s tone. Above here the buyers will remain aggressive pressing resistance at 72.27 and 72.77. Be patient. If the momentum is going to fizzle it will here. A held violation confirms a positive breakout signal targeting 74.80 on the initial push. 76.20 and 77.50 are the extended targets for any new leg north.

CRUDE OIL Q'09 DAILY


A break under 70.85 and the MKT is vulnerable to more difficult choppy digestive action down to the 67.33-66.90 support band. This is the base supporting any new consolidation if the positive momentum is going to pick back up. A break under this support inflection negates the underlying positive sentiment putting the 63.00 level in play.



JS



This commentary supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach.For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.* The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

SP 500 - Positive Signal Technical Signal

The SP500 closed firm posting a positive technical signal and will keep an aggressive buy posture above 901 targeting 928.50 on any new interest today. A breach of 919.25 confirms this forecast.


894.50 is the Inflection Pivot for Friday June 26, 2009.


Above 894.50 breaks are buying opportunity. Only under yesterday’s low at 891 is the MKT back on the defensive and threatening down to 873 and 868.50.

931.25-928 is the lid for any follow through to today’s positive signal. Be patient. If the corrective trade of late is going to continue the MKT will reject here. A Daily close or sustained breach of 928.75 and the momentum is expected to accelerate to new move highs at 962.50.

The confluence between the Indices continued on Thursday June 24, 2009 with the ND100 taking the lead. Notice the ND100 rejecting from its resistance pivot [UP – Upside Pivot] at 12noon when the SP500 was trying to bust of its Critical Range violation at 910.50.

Price Map Chart Overlay for June 25, 2009

ND100 Index

SP500 Index

Expect the confluence to continue with the SP500 taking the lead today.

Is the MKT really that strong that Monday’s negative signal could not even press into support or is it just house cleaning after the roll. Most likely we will have to wait till next week to find out.

JS

This commentary supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach.

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.

* The Price Map levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

SP500 - Confluence Indicator

The SP500 had a messy session after breaking out above Wednesday’s 895.25 Inflection Pivot. The MKT is transitioning back into a neutral position with the Weekly resistance area at 931-928 the digestive lid.

Thursday’s, 6/25/2009, action will focus on the 910.50 – 902.00 Critical Range. This is the area of indecision today with the current positive momentum maintaining the controls above 902. A break under this support pivot is needed to bring back the sellers putting the 870.00 target back in play and the contract vulnerable to a negative sentiment shift.

A rise above 910.50 and the positive momentum does its best to impress with the 919.50 and 929 resistance targeted. Look for exhaustive sell signals. No follow through is expected at this time.

Wednesday provided a key indicator of confluence in both the DOW Futures and ND100 for the SP500. Note the 10am highs in all three indices. When the SP500 violated its resistance both the ND100 and DOW did not.

JS Services Price Map Chart Overlay for June 24, 2009

ND100 Index

SP500 Index

DOW Futures Index

The DOW proved to be the best barometer of the late weakness as it rejected from it’s session Inflection Pivot [R Level] and produced a REVERSAL signal under it’s resistance pivot [UP – Upside Pivot] prior to the late sell off in the SP500.

Watch for confluence signals again today. If the markets are going to make a move they will be in sync. If not it is more likely going to be a choppy re-run of Wednesday.

This commentary supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach.

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.

JS

* The Price Map levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Strategy Runner, Ninja Trader and eSignal. Sign up for a Free Trial.

SP500 - Is that it?

The SEP’09 SP500 contract found it’s footing after Monday’s negative signal but will it be enough to turn the index back north.

As always anything is possible however when the MKTs technical state is taken into consideration we have a few more clues to it's intentions.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009 action is a good case in point. JS Services defines a MKTs technical state and the inflection points in which it will react in its daily Price Map. Pre-market Tuesday’s service advised that the MKT was in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE technical state.

SP500 Price Map June 23, 2009

NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE TECHNICAL STATE

Typical action in this technical state is choppy with sharp breaks against the underlying trend with the best opportunities to FADE weakness into support. Tuesday’s action provided a sharp break down to the daily Price Map support pivot and bounced, with the balance of the session sideways chop.

The market performed to expectation today and the daily Price Map allowed you to capture it.

Note Tuesday’s R level [Inflection Pivot] at 902-901.75 coincides with this week’s directional point [6/22/2009 post]. As a position management tool of Monday's negative signal this would be a good point for a trail stop. In addition the 884.00 Support Pivot [DP] provided an opportunity to “work” the trade and realize some profits. Expectations in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state are that the sharp breaks will produce positive reactions, especially if those breaks happen above a major support inflection pivot.

So what’s next in the SP500 U'09 contract for Wednesday June 24, 2009?

Tuesday’s sideways higher session produced a NEUTRAL POSITIVE EXTREME signal. In this technical signal state the MKT is pressing it’s upper digestive extreme and will either snap back into a negative posture or transition higher after breaking through it’s extreme or today's Inflection Pivot.

895.25 is the Inflection Pivot to key off for the session.

Below this price point the Index will remain hard pressed targeting 878.50 and 870.50 on any new weakness in the session, keeping Monday's negative signal in play. Expectations are that emotions will start to escalate however it’s just that above 862.50. Only under the 862.50 Weekly support inflection pivot does the underlying sentiment shift negative. Keep your eye on the 3457 in the VIX to gauge the fear factor.

A rise above the 895.25 Inflection Pivot puts Monday’s negative signal on hold for a challenge to the 903.50-902 Weekly directional area. How the MKT reacts here will provide a clue to the action for the next couple days. A rejection and the Bears will be back on the prowl searching for support. A violation and the positive momentum will have the 931.25-926.25 resistance band in its sights.

This posts supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach.

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.

JS

SP500 - How low can you go?

The SP500 U’09 contract has started the week on the defensive and is searching for support.

How low can it go? Or more precisely how low can it go and not alter the underlying positive sentiment off the March’09 lows? - 862.50.

Expectations for this week are that as long as the MKT is below the 931 Inflection Pivot it is vulnerable to further corrective action target, 878, 870 and 862.50 on the extreme. If the current weakness is going to stabilize it is doubtful that the MKT will do much if any trading below 870 and will more likely bounce above 878. Any positive reaction out of the 878-862.50 are will have the 9312.25-929 as the week’s target resistance. REVERSAL strategies are recommended to capture any positive turn.

Currently (1:15pm cst June 22, 2009) the Index will remain hard pressed below 902 targeting support. This Directional level will be a good gauge of momentum between the 931 and 970 inflection pivots.

A break under 962.50 is needed to confirm any sentiment shift off the MAR’09 lows. If so expectations are for volatility to pick up [use the 3457 level in the VIX as a sentiment guide and a violation of 4031 as the confirmation point that the fear factor is back] with 778.00 the initial target.

If the MKT stabilizes above 878-870 expectations for the week should be for a run at the 931-929 Inflection Pivot area with 902 acting as a sentiment gauge for any relief from today’s negative shift. This is a FADE opportunity as further sideways to lower action is the outlook. Only above 931 does the positive momentum engage targeting 963 initially. The likely environment will be stop and go however if the rally does extend it can climb up to 1017.

This Inflection Pivot forecast is for the week ending June 26,2009 and is supported by JS Services Daily Price Map overlay analysis.

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.

John Slazas

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BKX - BTK Negative Correlation

Flip Flop

BKX - DOWNTREND CORRECTIVE - BUY SIGNAL
BTK - UPTREND CORRECTIVE - SELL SIGNAL

JS Services Strategy Alerts are design to have impact for the trading session. As in any major signal however they do have the potential to be the start of something bigger. Yesterday’s ACCELERATION Signals are such signals.

Today however the dynamics have changed but the symmetry in the signals between these two sectors has not.

The BKX has a positive corrective signal today with yesterday’s rally. The rally is corrective and the integrity of our 3703 Inflection Pivot remains intact. As long as this is so the sector is vulnerable to a return to the negative posture. A Daily close above 3703 will negate this opportunity and confirm the corrective signal and a return to a sideways digestive trade.

The BTK did follow through on its acceleration signal attaining our initial target at 674.49 but lost some indicator support in the process and hence the negative corrective signal. Beware of early strength into the 683.50. As mentioned this is major overhead and with today’s negative signal a reaction should be expected. This MKT may be best left alone today as a messy trade is likely.



Two sectors going opposite directions. Two opposing strategy expectations. Technical trade balance.

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com and visit http://www.jsservices.com/

JS

BKX - KBW Bank Sector vs BTK - Biotechnology Index

BKX / BTK an unusual pair.

BKX - DOWNTREND ACCELERATION - SELL SIGNAL

BTK - UPTREND ACCELERATION - BUY SIGNAL

The BKX - KBW Bank Sector Index has a negative signal for today, which will remain in play below the 3703 Inflection Pivot, targeting 3383 on any negative follow through. If this signal is the spark to a new move south the 3030 price point is the extended target. 3703 is the ideal sell point today, however any sell signal is valid below here with risk parameters constructed using 3383 as the target objective.

The BTK - Biotechnology Sector Index produced a positive signal which will remain in force above the 652.32 Inflection Pivot, targeting 674.49 and 683.50. 683.50 is a Resistance Inflection Pivot that is expected to contain an new positive push. Expect a reaction. Only above here can the rally breach the Feb'09 highs. Breaks above 652.32 are buying opportunities, with a break under the June 16 649.31 low needed to negate the positive signal. Use 674.49 as the target to construct trade off this risk.

Two sectors going opposite directions. Two opposing strategy expectations. Technical trade balance.

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com and visit http://www.jsservices.com/

JS