SP500 - Is that it?

The SEP’09 SP500 contract found it’s footing after Monday’s negative signal but will it be enough to turn the index back north.

As always anything is possible however when the MKTs technical state is taken into consideration we have a few more clues to it's intentions.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009 action is a good case in point. JS Services defines a MKTs technical state and the inflection points in which it will react in its daily Price Map. Pre-market Tuesday’s service advised that the MKT was in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE technical state.

SP500 Price Map June 23, 2009

NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE TECHNICAL STATE

Typical action in this technical state is choppy with sharp breaks against the underlying trend with the best opportunities to FADE weakness into support. Tuesday’s action provided a sharp break down to the daily Price Map support pivot and bounced, with the balance of the session sideways chop.

The market performed to expectation today and the daily Price Map allowed you to capture it.

Note Tuesday’s R level [Inflection Pivot] at 902-901.75 coincides with this week’s directional point [6/22/2009 post]. As a position management tool of Monday's negative signal this would be a good point for a trail stop. In addition the 884.00 Support Pivot [DP] provided an opportunity to “work” the trade and realize some profits. Expectations in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state are that the sharp breaks will produce positive reactions, especially if those breaks happen above a major support inflection pivot.

So what’s next in the SP500 U'09 contract for Wednesday June 24, 2009?

Tuesday’s sideways higher session produced a NEUTRAL POSITIVE EXTREME signal. In this technical signal state the MKT is pressing it’s upper digestive extreme and will either snap back into a negative posture or transition higher after breaking through it’s extreme or today's Inflection Pivot.

895.25 is the Inflection Pivot to key off for the session.

Below this price point the Index will remain hard pressed targeting 878.50 and 870.50 on any new weakness in the session, keeping Monday's negative signal in play. Expectations are that emotions will start to escalate however it’s just that above 862.50. Only under the 862.50 Weekly support inflection pivot does the underlying sentiment shift negative. Keep your eye on the 3457 in the VIX to gauge the fear factor.

A rise above the 895.25 Inflection Pivot puts Monday’s negative signal on hold for a challenge to the 903.50-902 Weekly directional area. How the MKT reacts here will provide a clue to the action for the next couple days. A rejection and the Bears will be back on the prowl searching for support. A violation and the positive momentum will have the 931.25-926.25 resistance band in its sights.

This posts supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach.

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.

JS

SP500 - How low can you go?

The SP500 U’09 contract has started the week on the defensive and is searching for support.

How low can it go? Or more precisely how low can it go and not alter the underlying positive sentiment off the March’09 lows? - 862.50.

Expectations for this week are that as long as the MKT is below the 931 Inflection Pivot it is vulnerable to further corrective action target, 878, 870 and 862.50 on the extreme. If the current weakness is going to stabilize it is doubtful that the MKT will do much if any trading below 870 and will more likely bounce above 878. Any positive reaction out of the 878-862.50 are will have the 9312.25-929 as the week’s target resistance. REVERSAL strategies are recommended to capture any positive turn.

Currently (1:15pm cst June 22, 2009) the Index will remain hard pressed below 902 targeting support. This Directional level will be a good gauge of momentum between the 931 and 970 inflection pivots.

A break under 962.50 is needed to confirm any sentiment shift off the MAR’09 lows. If so expectations are for volatility to pick up [use the 3457 level in the VIX as a sentiment guide and a violation of 4031 as the confirmation point that the fear factor is back] with 778.00 the initial target.

If the MKT stabilizes above 878-870 expectations for the week should be for a run at the 931-929 Inflection Pivot area with 902 acting as a sentiment gauge for any relief from today’s negative shift. This is a FADE opportunity as further sideways to lower action is the outlook. Only above 931 does the positive momentum engage targeting 963 initially. The likely environment will be stop and go however if the rally does extend it can climb up to 1017.

This Inflection Pivot forecast is for the week ending June 26,2009 and is supported by JS Services Daily Price Map overlay analysis.

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.

John Slazas

For a complimentary daily Price Map trial to please click here http://www.jsservices.com/Authentication/freeTrialRequest.asp

BKX - BTK Negative Correlation

Flip Flop

BKX - DOWNTREND CORRECTIVE - BUY SIGNAL
BTK - UPTREND CORRECTIVE - SELL SIGNAL

JS Services Strategy Alerts are design to have impact for the trading session. As in any major signal however they do have the potential to be the start of something bigger. Yesterday’s ACCELERATION Signals are such signals.

Today however the dynamics have changed but the symmetry in the signals between these two sectors has not.

The BKX has a positive corrective signal today with yesterday’s rally. The rally is corrective and the integrity of our 3703 Inflection Pivot remains intact. As long as this is so the sector is vulnerable to a return to the negative posture. A Daily close above 3703 will negate this opportunity and confirm the corrective signal and a return to a sideways digestive trade.

The BTK did follow through on its acceleration signal attaining our initial target at 674.49 but lost some indicator support in the process and hence the negative corrective signal. Beware of early strength into the 683.50. As mentioned this is major overhead and with today’s negative signal a reaction should be expected. This MKT may be best left alone today as a messy trade is likely.



Two sectors going opposite directions. Two opposing strategy expectations. Technical trade balance.

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com and visit http://www.jsservices.com/

JS

BKX - KBW Bank Sector vs BTK - Biotechnology Index

BKX / BTK an unusual pair.

BKX - DOWNTREND ACCELERATION - SELL SIGNAL

BTK - UPTREND ACCELERATION - BUY SIGNAL

The BKX - KBW Bank Sector Index has a negative signal for today, which will remain in play below the 3703 Inflection Pivot, targeting 3383 on any negative follow through. If this signal is the spark to a new move south the 3030 price point is the extended target. 3703 is the ideal sell point today, however any sell signal is valid below here with risk parameters constructed using 3383 as the target objective.

The BTK - Biotechnology Sector Index produced a positive signal which will remain in force above the 652.32 Inflection Pivot, targeting 674.49 and 683.50. 683.50 is a Resistance Inflection Pivot that is expected to contain an new positive push. Expect a reaction. Only above here can the rally breach the Feb'09 highs. Breaks above 652.32 are buying opportunities, with a break under the June 16 649.31 low needed to negate the positive signal. Use 674.49 as the target to construct trade off this risk.

Two sectors going opposite directions. Two opposing strategy expectations. Technical trade balance.

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com and visit http://www.jsservices.com/

JS

GOLD - NEUTRAL DIGESTIVE

In the Inflection Pivots Blog I'm posting JS Services Strategy Alerts. These signals are meant for the session but certain signal types will have greater influence for a longer term move.

The Saturday June 13, 2009 post identified a DOWNTREND ACCELERATION SELL SIGNAL. This is a breakout signal that had potential but only influenced the MKT for the day attaining the initial target.

The algorithm produced a DOWN TREND CORRECTIVE BUY signal for Tuesday's action as noted in Monday nights post with the expectation of a sideways to higher trade for the session. The MKT performed to expectation and remained within JS Services Critical Range extremes.



So now what?

There is no technical technical signal today but JS Services is defining the current technical state as NEUTRAL DIGESTION. Expectation today should be for a sideways trend less trade in this environment.



Based on the prior two sessions signals however we can refine our expectation. Monday GOLD had a Negative Trend Acceleration signal that was immediately followed by a Corrective Buy signal on Tuesday. The MKT did close higher on Tuesday but did not violate Monday's key Inflection Pivot at 948 nor could it close above the 938.8 Directional level defined in the post for Tuesday's trading keeping the MKT in a vulnerable position.


So for today's session the technical state is NEUTRAL DIGESTIVE, however the MKT remains vulnerable to a negative turn below the 945 Inflection Pivot. A breach of this level is needed to negate Monday's negative signal and confirm the neutral state.




This MKT is technical on the fence and should make a decision to its direction today or tomorrow.

The expectation is sideways but negative below 945.


By defining the MKTs technical state we can align our trading strategies with our expectations.


For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com and visit http://www.jsservices.com/

JS

GOLD - Technically in play

GOLD - Practical application position management

This past weekend's Down Trend Acceleration SELL signal followed through and attained the initial minimum target at 929.6. The MKT remains in play. Although the contract did not provide an ideal entry opportunity at our 948 inflection pivot it did provide an opportunity based on the type of technical signal that was in play.

By understanding the MKTs technical state we can align our strategies to capitalize on it. JS Services traders understand this and know that in a Down Trend Acceleration SELL signal our expectations are for the negative action to hold structure and continue to produce lower move lows and lower highs.

The early morning rally just before 8am cst had the MKT challenging Sunday evenings high structure. With the MKT unable to attain the initial 929.6 target overnight and our expectations of the MKT to hold negative structure, FADING price action against the Sunday night highs was a good bet with risk defined using 929.6 as a profit target.

A better way to position manage this opportunity is to subscribe to JS Services Price Map technical levels, http://www.jsservices.com/Authentication/freeTrialRequest.asp.

Today's GOLD Price Map had traders anticipating a sell opportunity at 938.8 with confidence as not only was the structure of the technical state in favor of a sale but the MKT was also challenging the session's Directional Inflection Pivot.

What's next? Well today our algorithm is producing a Down Trend Corrective BUY signal. Expectations today should be for a sideways to higher corrective trading environment with the potential for the MKT resuming the negative trend on any offer. BUY strategies are valid but profits should be taken sooner than later and for now the positive action is against underlying negative momentum. The best strategy today will be a SELL REVERSAL off a resistance level with the expectation that the 915.2 target will be back in play.

If the positive corrective signal is going to be negated and a resumption of the negative momentum is going to happen today, it is unlikely any corrective rally will breach the 948 inflection pivot. In addition if the downtrend is going to stay on course the MKT should close under the 938.8 level . If not our sell signal will most likely transition into a Neutral position with 962 and 966 targeted.

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com and visit http://www.jsservices.com/

JS

GOLD - DOWNTREND ACCLERATION SELL SIGNAL

Inflection Pivots act as triggers to market movement. The movement is sparked by fundamental and technical shifts. JS Services statistical indicator produces signals that highlight technical shifts. These signals produce a directional probability bias for the session but as in any signal have the potential to be the start of something much bigger.

By combining these signal alerts with qualified Inflection Pivots we can quantify our risk and capture opportunity.

Today we have a NEGATIVE technical signal in GOLD. This has us accepting sell signals off qualified Inflection Pivots in the AUG’09 Contract. This is an alert to accept sell signals not to blindly sell.

As subscribers to JS Services Price Map you have access to the complete inflection pivot overlay. In this commentary I will highlight a few key points to consider, 948 and 962.

948 is the Inflection Pivot for the session. If the negative signal is going to stay aggressive any positive reaction will reject here. A held violation of the 948 level does not negate the negative signal but does set up a rally to sell up to the 967-962 resistance band. Both 948 and 962 represent the best risk reward qualified entry points for today’s negative GOLD signal.

The current minimum support target levels for any downside follow through for the negative signal is 929.6 and 915.2. These price targets should be your expectation today for any sales and your risk adjusted as such. If the MKT has yet to attained a target the better the sell opportunity is.

This may be all the opportunity we get to the downside and today’s negative signal may just be a head fake before the positive momentum resumes course. The GOLD MKT is at a turning point however and today’s signal does have the potential to be the straw that turns sentiment negative targeting 850. Whichever way the drama unfolds the Inflection Pivots will script the story.

In Summary

The technical signal tells us that the GOLD MKT is in play. Qualified price inflection pivots provide entry areas where our risk can be defined. Support and resistance targets allow you to “see” what the opportunity is so as “live” MKT dynamics shift you can capitalize on them with the bigger picture in mind.

Will the MKT give us an opportunity off our Inflection Pivot? That remains to be seen, but if the opportunity presents itself it is a place where your risk can be defined by a couple dollars for the potential to make $20-$40 if not a $100.

Please contact me directly with any questions, info@jsservices.com or visit http://www.jsservices.com/ for a complimentary trial of our Price Map overlay.

JS