SP500 - In the Spin Cycle

The JUN'09 SP500 Index is stuck in the spin cycle.

Currently the 926-873.25 levels define the digestive range extremes with 899.25 the Inflection Pivot for today.

In the unlikely event that the MKT is going to make a move today, this will be the trigger. A held trade above here keeps the buyers interested but its all smoke and mirrors below the 933-926 resistance band. As long as the Index is below this resistance it is vulnerable to a return to the MAR'09 lows. A breach and a search for resistance resumes with 1007 the initial target for any new run.

A held trade below 899.25 is a sign of weakness that puts the contract back in a soft spot. Expect either a tightening of the recent pattern or an extension down to the 873.25-866.50 support area. Buying is expected to provide a bounce back into more of the same choppy trading conditions. Only under 862.50 does the fear factor raise the emotional level and put the MKT on edge.

JS

CORN JUL'09 - On the Fence

The JUL'09 CORN contract is at the make or break point.

Key off the 421-6 Inflection Pivot for a barometer of current sentiment. A held trade above here will keep the current sentiment positive pressing resistance at 438-4 and 442-4. These are the resistance hurdles to any sustained climb and have the potential to be short term digestive peaks if the stop and go trade of late is going to continue.

A Daily close above 438-4 or violation of 442-4 however is expected to spark an acceleration targeting 455-0 initially on a move that has the potential to extend up to 471-4 and 485-6.

Trading below the 421-6 Inflection Pivot will put the contract into a neutral digestive position with 406-2 and 390-0 the low points for any new consolidation. As long as the MKT stabilizes above 390-0 is consolidation to go higher. Below 390-0 and CORN is vulnerable to a negative shift.

JS

USDJPY - At the Crossroads

The USDJPY is trying to transition into a positive position and will maintain this posture above the 9355-9340 Inflection Pivot.

If the MKT is good it will stabilize above here. A breach of 9670 is encouraging however a violation of the 9971 Resistance Inflection Pivot is needed to signal a positive acceleration in momentum targeting 10697 and 11272-11235 on the move.

A break under 9277 and the USDJPY revisits the 8715 recent low point where buying should be expected. A test of this support is negative however and positive reactions should be considered opportunities to FADE.

A failure from the 8715 support inflection pivot will extend the weakness down to the 8030-7830 support band. Look for buying opportunities in this zone as no immediate follow through is expected and the outlook a 3-5 month digestive rally out of this zone.

JS

NIKKEI 225 - Rising Sun has a Cloud

The Nikkei 225 JUN'09 contract is poised for a challenge to major directional resistance whose reaction will point the way to the next 2-3 month move.

9710 is the Inflection Pivot to focus on.

If the Index is going to re-visit this years low area at 6960 the MKT will reject here. If we get a decisive rejection that will be the objective. A lackluster stagnant trade following a challenge to the 9710 area and we may be in for an early sideways summer trade with 8060 the digestive low.

A held violation of 9710 with a Daily close above 9830 will put the 11000 and 12180 targets in reach. Reactions should be expected.

JS

BRENT CRUDE OIL - EXCITABLE

The BRENT CRUDE [ICE] JUL'09 contract is heating up and will maintain an aggressive buy posture above the 58.82 Inflection Pivot.

61.98 is the initial resistance that is expected to challenge any new buying. How the MKT reacts here will gauge the next move. A violation and Daily close above 62.38 and it is just a matter of time before we see $68 and $74 oil.

A rejection from 61.98 and things can get a little slippery with a big sideways trade. 58.82 will remain pivotal but 55.91 is the support inflection pivot.

If the current strength struggles below 58.82, 55.91 is expected to prove the next bounce.

JS

British Pound - All that and a Bag of Chips

Impressive day in the British Pound.

Is this the real deal. Could be. At least for another 5 handles through the Memorial Day holiday, if not 15 over the next 2-5 weeks.

Interesting divergence in the Monthly with the MKT breaking structure this year taking out the JUNE 2001 lows but maintaining an underlying positive structure basis the Monthly close.

15663 is the Inflection Pivot to key off for the current advance. If the MKT is going to run it should just go with 16363 and 16633 the initial targets. If things turn eventful an extended run can climb as high as 17589.

A held trade under 15598 and the positive turn is in question and the currency vulnerable to a slide back into a digestive trade.

JS

NASDAQ 100 Review

The positive signal on May 18, could not follow through running into a wall at our resistance Inflection Pivot at the end of the session.

The technical posture has shifted into firm digestion from positive acceleration.

1379 is the inflection pivot to key off today. A held trade under this support will need confirmation below 1373 to negate Monday's positive signal. If so a shift in sentiment should be expected with the potential to drop the Index down to 1347.50 and 1336.50 in the session.

If yesterday's rejection was real the contract will not do much if any trading above 1399.75. If so a re-test of yesterday's high at 1410.50 is the outlook. Expect a reaction but roll with a violation. Above this resistance inflection pivot a price acceleration should be anticipated.

JS