US 30YR T-BOND Z'10 Futures - POSITIVE SIGNAL NEEDS CONFIRMATION

- Technically the MKT has produced a big positive signal and will need to sustain a trade above 134-15 to keep the buyers aggressive. A breach of 135-07 confirms a new leg higher. Only below 133-23 is the signal negated signaling a drop back into a digestive trade.

On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major resistance levels. Expectations should be for an immediate exhaustive turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area. Avoid SELL FADE strategies even with confirmation. SELL BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against Directional resistance.


- On the BUY side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies above the previous session's low point. BREAKOUT strategies should just "go", so do not risk much. Be wary of these strategies early in the session and look to exit on the 1st break in structure. BUY FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift high.

JS


* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv  .

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SP500 INDEX Futures - FLIP FLOP

Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND and has produced a negative signal. The MKT is vulnerable and all sell signals should be considered below the 1047.75 Inflection Pivot. If the negative momentum is going to follow through the market will struggle to maintain a trade above here.  If so a return to a firm sideways trade is the forecast.

On the SELL side accept all BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL signals. If the MKT produces a BREAKOUT signal early in the session below 1037.25 it should just "go" and not look back. Beware of any break in early negative structure, as a corrective rally up to 1056.25 and 1066 resistance is a likely scenario. Be selective and wait for an exhaustive signal to re-enter to avoid selling the corrective rally all the way up to your "ideal" sell points but with no confidence left or dry powder. Practice good size management on this move accepting sell signals but leveraging up at the resistance turning points. Anticipate a price "zone" around a major resistance point to FADE. Have a plan and be ready. If your stop gets hit and the MKT does not immediately follow through, consider re-entering, even doubling up if there is structure to define low risk. ONLY keep an aggressive BEAR posture below 1047.75. Above here the MKT is vulnerable to a rally with a breach of 1056.25 the confirm point.

On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major support levels but preferably after an emotional sell off early in the session. This is an aggressive strategy and any profits should be realized at the previous support failure points. Expectations should be for an immediate "V" bottom turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area or a gradual rise with higher lows after a lower exhaustive signal. Avoid FADE BUYS even with confirmation, as this is more likely a plateau for a BREAKOUT SELL strategy. BUY BREAKOUT strategies above 1047.75 should just go producing a low volatility one way trade higher. Any stops and go action should be viewed as negative. 

Note: The MKT has produced a negative signal and should follow through with authority from the get go if it is serious. If not expect some starts and stops. Be patient and wait for opportunity. A held trade above the 1047.75 has the potential to bounce this contract back on its feet. Don't fight positive structure.

JS

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RUSSELL 2000 INDEX Futures - FUN AND GAMES

Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND but in a DIGESTIVE posture. The MKT has produced a big negative signal but has yet to confirm a shift into trend mode. Look for excuses to get short with all trading below the the 611.40 Inflection Pivot.


On the SELL side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 593.00 may need to be "worked" as teh big negative signal will have the sellers excited. FADE strategies after a negative breakdown signal against 602.50 are good opportunities as well and can provide favorable area to put on leverage against structure. Be more aggressive with FADE and REVERSAL strategies at 611.40 or against the previous session high point targeting the opposing digestive support. Above the previous session high point enterying after the 2nd or 3rd press into an area is recomended over stepping in front of the initial challenge.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT strategies above 611.40 are aggressive and should be entered sooner [lower] than later [higher]. Expectations should be for the MKT to make its move early in the session and not look back, holding strucutre most of the day producing a positive "reversal" signal. If the MKT digests prior to making a positive move it is more likely a short squeeze to FADE. BUY FADE strategies off 593.00 are aggressive and if they are going to work should do so on the initial test of support. Repeated tests or "confirmation" are more likely to give way to a lower trade. BUY REVERSAL strategies are not recommended as any failure is confirmation of a negative trend shift. The probability is to the downside today so don't get stubborn buying breaks.

Note: The MKT has produced a big negative signal and is flirting with a turn for the worse. If it does not follow through on any new weakness it is more likely a nuetral shift than a positive one.

JS


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GOLD Futures - READY TO RUN

Technically the MKT is in a BULL TREND ACCELERATION posture and has produced a big positive signal. The MKT should "run" to a new level if the signal is valid.

Key off the 1222.7 Inflection Pivot. This is the low point for any pull-back if the positive signal is going to remain in play.

On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed at extremes following an exhaustive signal. Expectations should be for an immediate exhaustive turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area. A gradual decline following a reversal signal and it is more likely just a pause before another round of buying, so lock in any unrealized gains. SELL FADE strategies have potential but wait for repeated tests, with the best opportunity not violating the resistance level. Consider rolling long on any stops with this strategy. SELL BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against Directional resistance.

On the BUY side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies above the previous session's low point. BREAKOUT strategies early in the session may have issues holding structure, so respect any break in momentum. BUY FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift. The MKT is aggressively bid which should keep pace throughout the session if the TREND ACCELERATION forecast is going to play out.

Note: The worst-case scenario for a MKT in this technical position is to go higher early in the session and then break all day. Be alert and recognize this. If you have > 3 loser long trades, consider taking the next sell signal, anticipating a corrective turn. Remember in this technical position if the MKT is going higher, it should just go. If not, there is the potential for a corrective break or digestive trading environment.

JS

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CANADIAN DOLLAR Futures - TRUTH TEST

Technically the MKT is at a NEUTRAL NEGATIVE EXTREME and is ready to either pop back into a firm neutral posture or break into a new down trend. The MKT has produced a technical sell signal into support and is in a "Make or Break" scenario. Volatility as well is on the fence and ready to rise with a new trend move and decline with some sideways "positioning".


Key off the 9675 Inflection Pivot for the key to the validity of the the sell signal.

On the SELL side accept FADE and BREAKOUT strategies expecting an immediate follow through to the MKT's technical sell signal. BREAKOUT strategies below 9581 should be worked with the expectation that any sustained trade and repeated tests of support will give way to negative follow through. This strategy is vulnerable to the MKT expanding its lower support band in a series of starts and stops. Keep profit targets extended to pay for any monies spent holding a position. FADE strategies against 9675 should expect an immediate reaction as any held trade or violation of major resistance foreshadows a potential turning point. These are good opportunities to "roll" into a long position when stopped out.

On the BUY side FADE and REVERSAL strategies off the 9581support are qualified however the FADE is a lower probability and should use tight risk criteria. REVERSALs can risk more but should also go for more profit with the expectation of a turning point "key reversal" signal to play out. BREAKOUT strategies above 9675 are aggressive and should just "go" and not look back. Risk less and go for more. A laborious lack-luster rise after a positive breakout is a sign that the MKT is more likely expanding its resistance lid for a new consolidation verses transition from negative to positive technical posture.

Note: The MKT has produced a negative signal but it is not confirmed and trending indicators do not support follow through in either direction at this time. The MKT has the potential for big range conditions so don't get stuck FADing momentum in either direction.

JS


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CRUDE OIL Futures V'10 - SLIPPERY SLOPE

Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND and has produced a negative signal. The MKT is vulnerable and all sell signals should be considered below the 76.43 Inflection Pivot.


On the SELL side accept all BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL signals. If the MKT produces a BREAKOUT signal below 74.89 early in the session it should just "go" and not look back. Beware of any break in early negative structure, as a corrective rally up to resistance is a likely scenario. Be selective and wait for an exhaustive signal to re-enter to avoid selling the corrective rally all the way up to your "ideal" sell at 76.43 and 77.20 but with no confidence left or dry powder. Practice good size management on this move accepting sell signals but leveraging up at the resistance turning points. Anticipate a price "zone" around a major resistance point to FADE. Have a plan and be ready. If your stop gets hit and the MKT does not immediately follow through, consider re-entering, even doubling up if there is structure to define low risk. Follow any corrective rise with a REVERSAL strategy. Expectations are for the negative signal to follow through even if it does in the last hour.

On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of the 74.89 and 72.19 support levels but preferably after an emotional sell off early in the session. This is an aggressive strategy and any profits should be realized at the previous support failure points. Expectations should be for an immediate "V" bottom turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area or a gradual rise with higher lows after a lower exhaustive signal. Avoid FADE BUYS even with confirmation, as this is more likely a plateau for a BREAKOUT SELL strategy. BUY BREAKOUT strategies above 76.43 and 77.20 are not recommended but do have a better chance of succeeding than a FADE.

Note: The MKT has produced a negative signal and should follow through with authority from the get go if it is serious. If not expect some starts and stops. Be patient and wait for opportunity. As soon as the MKT starts to look "good", its time dial in your sell strategies, especially if the integrity of the previous session high point remains intact. Above the previous session high point and all negative bets are off.

JS


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SP500 Index Futures - TRANSITIONAL

Technically the MKT is in NEUTRAL TRANSITION and has produced a positive signal which should influence the MKT today if the signal is valid. If the integrity of the prior session's high remains intact it is less likely to do so with the MKT returning to a sideways trade. Roll with any new strength and leverage up if good risk parameters present themselves. The potential to get in at the beginning of a new move higher is real.


Key off the 1082.25 Inflection Pivot as the base for the positive transition signal. If the MKT is going to rotate higher any turn to support will bottom out above here.
On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major resistance levels at or near the previous session high point. Avoid this strategy on higher levels as any new strength has the potential to be the beginning of a move. If the integrity of the previous session high remains intact FADE strategies can be accepted at or near this level on the initial test with tight profit target objectives. If the MKT has already had a reaction off this resistance area avoid this strategy. Use a BREAKOUT strategy below 1082.25 as a signal to FADE a positive pull-back after a confirm break in the momentum. Only take this trade if the previous session high point remains intact. Otherwise this will be a BUY REVERSAL opportunity.

On the BUY side be more aggressive after the previous session high has been taken out. Not that this is a pre-condition but should be noted as a confirmation of strength. BREAKOUT strategies above 1091 and 1098.50 should just "go" so keep risk parameters tight. FADE into any negative reaction off an unsuccessful upside BREAKOUT after a support level is confirmed. Use a REVERSAL strategy to leverage up after the MKT gets back above the original breakout point. If the integrity of the previous session high remains intact, avoid REVERSAL strategies as any break momentum is a negative signal that the MKT is going to return to its neutral posture. FADE strategies off the 1082.25 Inflection Pivot are recommended early in the session or near the end. The positive signal will either play out from the get go or will make its move in the latter stages of the trading session.

Note: This is a dangerous emotional trading environment. Expect MKT reactions to go a little further that you expect in either direction so anticipate this in your position and risk management.

JS


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SWISS FRANC Futures - IMPRESSIVE

Technically the MKT is in a BULL TREND ACCELERATION posture and has produced a big positive signal which will remain intact with all trading above the 9529 Inflection Pivot. The MKT is in "play" and aggressive action is expected off of technical signals. Anticipate opportunity and position management adjustments, as quick price action is likely.


On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off 9670 and 9717 of major resistance levels. Expectations should be for an immediate exhaustive turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area. A gradual decline folowing a reversal signal and it more likely just a pause before another round of buying, so in either scenerio keep position management tight. Avoid SELL FADE strategies even with confirmation, as this is more likely a lid for a BREAKOUT BUY strategy. SELL BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against Directional reisstance at 9623.

On the BUY side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies above the previous sessions low point. BREAKOUT strategies above 9670 should just "go", so do not risk much. Be wary of these strategies early in the session and look to exit on the 1st break in strucutre. BUY FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies at 9576 and 9529 as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift. The MKT is aggressively bid which should keep pace throughout the session if the TREND ACCELERATION forecast is going to play out.

Note: The worst-case scenario for a MKT in this technical position is to go higher early in the session and then break all day. Be alert to recognize this. If you have > 3 loser long trades consider taking the next sell signal anticipating a corrective turn. Remember in this technical position if the MKT is going higher it should just go. If not there is the potential for a corrective break or digestive trading environment.
JS
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USDJPY Forex - CORRECTIVE

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a positive signal against a negative trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT however the threat of the return of the negative momentum must be respected as a good probability.

Key off the 8573 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session tone. Above here the corrective signal is in play with a breach of 8624 needed to confirm a higher trade. Trading below 8573 puts the MKT into a digestive posture and a failure from 8522 signals a return to the offer.


Note: The MKT is in a corrective position with the potential to produce a sharp short covering rally, a messy sideways digest or a resumption of the negative trend. Keep your opinions to themselves and focus on what the MKT is telling you it wants to do. Don't fight it, roll with it. If you have > 3 losses consider reversing strategy.

JS


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Canadian Dollar Futures - SET TO SWING

Technically the MKT has produced a big negative signal against a positive trend and will remain vulnerable to the offer below the 9651 Inflection Pivot. 

On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies against 9607 and 9651 until after the previous session low point or 9519 support level has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. REVERSAL strategies should be avoided as any positive signal is more likely an indication that the underlying trend is going to resume. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 9519 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE long at support targets.

On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies off the 9519 support pivot, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity. BREAKOUT strategies above 9563 and 9651can risk a little more if current events confirm a positive posture. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction after a positive breakout signal as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

JS


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CRUDE OIL Futures - VULNERABLE BELOW 81.13

Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION and flirting with further losses with all trading below the 81.13 Inflection Pivot. The MKT has produced a big negative signal and any positive corrective action is expected to be short lived with only one upside "stop sweep" if the negative momentum is going to play out. Any held strength and repeated probe higher is a sign that the trade will turn digestive. This does not take away from the negative bias but does limit the profit potential for any new sales in the session.

On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT. BREAKOUT strategies below the 79.59 support pivot may need to be "worked" as the MKT is on edge and will be emotional, producing some starts and stops before it drops. FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies at 81.13as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any momentum shift should be considered a potential positive corrective turn.

On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off major support levels as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies and opportunities to SELL into and FADE. BREAKOUT strategies above the previous session high or the 81.13 resistance level are a long shot, so risk less and go for more. Any BUY FADE strategies off the 79.59 support should have confirmation and are not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact. After a break in the negative structure confirmed support levels can be used for short term reactions using aggressive position management.

Note: The MKT is on edge and is vulnerable to a big drop. If the previous session high is intact its just a matter of time before the sellers try to overwhelm the MKT. Look for excuses to get short. If the previous session high is breached opportunity will be on both sides of the MKT, however the bias still rests with the Bears.

JS

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SP500 Index Futures - TRYING TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE

:Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a negative signal against a positive trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT, however a held trade above the 1113 Inflection Pivot will keep the positive momentum in command. A failure from 1113 and the Bears have something to sink their teeth into.


On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies until after the previous session low point or major support level has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. Until then a better opportunity will be a REVERSAL strategy but only off the 1129.50 resistance level. This is a one shot trade using a low risk big profit target criteria. The idea is that if the MKT is going to follow through on its negative signal any strength is just a "head fake " before it follows through. SELL BREAKOUT strategies under 1113 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE long at support targets at 1104.75 and 1090.25. The trade is corrective and the underlying positive tone must be respected.

On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies at 1113, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. BREAKOUT strategies above 1129.50 can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a positive posture with the expectation that the Bull Trend is going to resume. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction after a positive breakout signal down to 1121.25 as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

Note: The MKT is in a corrective position with the potential to move in either direction. Keep your opinions to themselves and focus on what the MKT is telling you it wants to do. Don't fight it, roll with it.

JS


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GOLD Futures - TRUTH OR DARE

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a big negative signal against a positive trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT however the underlying positive bias from the past 7 sessions will keep the pace above the 1181.3 Inflection Pivot. Only below here is the MKT vulnerable to a beating.


On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies against the 1204.4 resistance pivot until after the previous session low point or major support level has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. REVERSAL strategies should be avoided as any positive signal is more likely an indication that the underlying trend is going to resume. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 1189 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits at 1181.3 and potentially REVERSE long at support targets. The trade is counter trend so avoid any negative commitments. Only under 1181.3 can this MKT let loose to the downside targeting 1162.1.

On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies off 1189 and 1181.3 are recommended over a FADE strategies, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. BREAKOUT strategies above 1204.4 can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a positive posture. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction after a positive breakout signal down to 1196.7 as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

Note: The MKT has produced a big technical signal against the current trend. Be aware that the negative action may be a 1-day event with the positive trend quickly re-establishing itself. If the MKT is really going to turn it should remain hard pressed and provide little or no relief.
JS

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EUREX BUND Futures - NOT SO FAST

Technically the MKT has produced a positive signal but remains in a DIGESTIVE BULL TREND. Key off the 12861 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session. As long as the MKT is above here the positive signal will be in play. Look for excuses to get long but respect the digestive nature and avoid pressing any position.


On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies and use a REVERSAL instead at the 12939 resistance pivot. The MKT is excited but has yet to confirm any new advance. Expectations are that any false positive breakout signal will be met with a sharp negative reaction. BREAKOUT strategies below 12861 are a lower probability but are valid and in line with a reversal scenario. If the MKT has already produced a false positive signal and is holding negative reversal structure, this strategy has potential. Expectations are that any negative BREAKOUT should just go and with the MKT staying under pressure into the close and expanding the digestive range. Anticipate a positive turn and consider reversing off lower support structure.

On the BUY side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies. BREAKOUT strategies above 12939 have the potential to run. If so, they will just "go" and not look back. Any stop and go action and any profits should be realized as it is more likely the MKT will be setting up a re-test of support to FADE off 12900 before it can extend higher. FADE and REVERSAL strategies should work off  the 12861 support pivot and only provide one opportunity. Repeated tests or base building and it is more likely the MKT is going to search for its lower digestive extreme rather than resume a positive course.

Note: The MKT has produced a positive signal but is not confirmed. Be ready for it but if it does not materialize, beware of a negative reaction. Don't get caught fading a break that continues to hold structure as the MKT may be defining its lower digestive extreme and will most likely find it after it hits your last sell stop.

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