USDCAD - Vulnerable

The USDCAD is on edge and threatening. 10886 is the Inflection Pivot keeping the MKT in an aggressive sell posture. Look for FADE and REVERSAL opportunities in the 10886-10855 zone. Things do have the potential to get emotional with 1.0320 the extended target for any new trend move south. Look for immediate support today at 1.0697-1.0687 if things start to unwind. 10766 is the current confirmation breaking point. A rise above 1.0926 negates this opportunity.

JS

This post supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

USDJPY - Flip Flop

The USDJPY switched gears bouncing off support and producing a positive corrective signal. This MKT is fighting higher and corrective states can be erratic. For now key off the 9460 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session tone. Above here the positive signal is in play targeting 9568-9562 on any upside follow through. Be patient. If the rally is going to fizzle it will here. A held breach and the positive momentum can carry as high as 9719-9700 before it exhausts.



- A break under 9460 signals this MKTs intentions of going nowhere. Time to look elsewhere for opportunity as they only thing going on will be lower premiums.


JS


This post supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.
Posted by John Slazas at 10:16 PM 0 comments
Labels: FOREX: USDJPY

USDJPY - Negtive Signal Needs Confirmation

FOREX - USDJPY


The USDJPY cross produced a negative signal and is flirting with a negative shift. 9482 is the Inflection Pivot keeping the signal in play down to the 9405 support. If the MKT is going to stabilize it will here. A held failure confirms the negative signal targeting 9251 on any downside follow through. Expect a reaction. 9116 is the lower extreme.



If the negative signal is valid the MKT will close lower and at some point in the session take out yesterday's low at 9403. A rise above 9482 puts the signal in question with 9562 the high point for any reversal of fortune. Although a reaction is expected trading at these levels is expected to be erratic with 9719 the high point for any false hope . No follow through is expected.

JS

This post supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

GOLD - Losing Luster

The AUG'09 GOLD contract is slipping lower, currently pressing good directional support at 933.8-931.6. If the MKT is going to stabilize it will here for a bounce back up to the 947 Inflection Pivot. If not the negative sentiment is set to overwhelm the MKT targeting 893.1 on any downside shift. Use caution. This break does have the potential to extend to 850.




The 947 Inflection Pivot that will gauge the MKTs tone for the current corrective shift. Below here the contract is hard pressed into support. Above this point the positive momentum will try to re-establish itself, targeting 996.2. A violation of 962.5 is needed to confirm any new push north. Be patient. No follow through is expected.



JS



This post supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

SP500 - How we doing?

Each post on Inflection Pivots is a powerful statement of a MKT' behavioral posture. The signals presented show underlying psychological shift in sentiment which will influence the MKT over the coming sessions. On June 22, 2009 the SP500 Index produced a negative corrective signal.

The June 22, 2009 the signal and provided a framework to capitalize on the opportunity. The 931.00 Inflection pivot proved to be the pivotal point providing a rejection down to the 870-862.50 support band for a buy opportunity. This was the low point for the corrective break putting the 1017 target in play.

Although we do not follow each MKT signal post through completion you should continue to track its progress. For now the SP500 remains in an aggressive buy posture above 963, targeting 1017. A held trade under 963 and the contract is vulnerable to a retreat back down to the 931 level.

JS

This post supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

RLX - Flirting with a fresh advance

The Retail Sector Index [RLX] is working higher poised to challenge good directional resistance at 348.44 with all trading above 338.72. Be patient. A violation here is needed to confirm a fresh advance targeting 364.48 and 372.95 on the initial move.

A dip under 338.72 sets up a buying opportunity down to 331.68. This is the Inflection Pivot keeping the positive bias in play. Look for buying opportunities down to 326.11. This is the low point for any corrective pullback and the expected bottom for a new leg higher. Only under 326.11 is the positive signal negated and the Index back in a difficult digestive trade down to 299.44.

JS

This post supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

GBPJPY - NEGATIVE SHIFT

The GBPJPY cross produced a negative shift signal within a neutral digestive posture. For now it is noise however trading below the 15469 Inflection Pivot will have the MKT on the defensive down to 15240.

15240 is the breaking point that if taken out will confirm today's negative signal putting the 15035 and 14825 support targets in play.

A held trade above 15469 puts the negative signal in question up to 15618. Be patient. This is the high point for any upside head fake. A violation of 15618 confirms a positive shift targeting 15936. Expect no follow through.

JS

This post supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

SP500 - Looking for Love

The SP500 is working higher and remains in an aggressive buy break posture above the 921.00 Inflection Pivot.




This is the low point for any weakness if the positive momentum is going to keep pace targeting 962.50 on any new interest. Be patient. A reaction is expected. 962.50 is a big resistance pivot with the potential to reject the Index back into a big digestive trade. A violation here confirms a fresh leg higher targeting 1006.75.


A break under 921.00 puts the contract back in a difficult digestive trade with 971.00 the low point for the new consolidation.


JS

This post supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

Trading Ideas - Review

Last week provided a diverse mix of opportunity.

MONDAY July 13, 2009

To start the week both the AUDUSD and USDCHF where in play with a negative signal on July 10,2009.

In the AUDUSD on Monday July 13,2009 post the "Expectations are for the MKT to test the 7704 support with all trading below 7836. If the MKT is going to stabilize it will here." The MKT did stabilize and bounced up to its upper resistance.

AUDUSD

July 13, 2009 July 17, 2009

The USDCHF signal was not expected to follow through on its signal and it did not. The USDCHF has produced a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION signal but may be a little ahead of itself.

USDCHF

July 13, 2009 . July 17, 2009

TUESDAY July, 14,2009

The Tuesday July 14, 2009 post alerted of a positive opportunity in the NASDAQ. The Index jumped higher in early trading and is fast approaching big directional resistance at 1479.25. If the rally is going to stall it will here. A violation and the excitement has the potential to extend up to 1497.50-1496.25 before the sellers try to keep things under control. This move is still in play.

NASDAQ100

July 14, 2009 . July 17, 2009


WEDNESDAY July 15, 2009

The 30YR US Treasury MKT produced a negative signal on Wednesday "The 30yr took a tumble and is threatening to return to the aggressive sell campaign. FADE strength against the 118-06 Inflection Pivot expecting the worst. A break under 116-065 is need to confirm any new move lower. A failure here should be pressed with expectations of the market making a play for the 112-195 level. "

This negative signal is still in play opening the week on its breaking point and is currently flirting with a release.

30YR T-BOND

July 15, 2009 . July 17, 2009

THURSDAY 16, 2009

The Natural Gas MKT has been on a roller coaster and as was posted on Thursday July 16, 2009 did not follow through. The July'09 NAT GAS contract is heating up in an emotional roller coaster. Yesterday's strong showing produced a positive corrective signal reversing sentiment. Is the MKT turning? Don't make any commitments.

NAT GAS

July 16, 2009 . July 17, 2009


JS

This post supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

NAT GAS - Emotional Rescue

The July'09 NAT GAS contract is heating up in an emotional roller coaster. Yesterday's strong showing produced a positive corrective signal reversing sentiment. Is the MKT turning? Don't make any commitments.

The MKT has been at the edge of the abyss and volatile trading conditions should be expected before the contract takes the leap or runs away from the edge. Key off the 3.685 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session tone. Below here yesterday's signal is all noise with the 3.490 support pivot the turning point. If the buyers are going to keep the controls they will support any weakness here. A held failure from 3.490 is a sign of weakness that puts the contract back on the defensive down to 3.250. Only under this support is the rug pulled for a drop down to 2.876 and 2.640.

A held trade above 3.685 has the MKT flirting with a acceleration in the positive momentum. Stay nimble. 3.729 and 3.795 are both spoilers for any optimism. Only above 3.795 is a positive shift confirmed targeting 4.266-4.222 on the initial surge. No follow through is expected.

JS

This post supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

30yr Treasury Bond - Vulnerable

The 30yr took a tumble and is threatening to return to the aggressive sell campaign. FADE strength against the 118-06 Inflection Pivot expecting the worst. A break under 116-065 is need to confirm any new move lower. A failure here should be pressed with expectations of the market making a play for the 112-195 level. Use caution. Things have the potential to get emotional.




A rise above 118-06 removes the negative threat signaling more big digestive action with 120-075 the immediate target for any positive turn of events.


JS




This post supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

NASDAQ100 emini - Excitable

The Index jumped higher in early trading and is fast approaching big directional resistance at 1479.25. If the rally is going to stall it will here. A violation and the excitement has the potential to extend up to 1497.50-1496.25 before the sellers try to keep things under control. Expect a reaction.


Trading at these levels is positive however the rally is lacking indicator support which will need to kick in if this is the beginning of something bigger with a 1597.75 initial objective.




1445.25 is today's Inflection Pivot. Above here the buyers will remain aggressive. If we get an opportunity expect it to be "touch and go" if the positive excitement is going to return. A held failure from 1445.25 puts the bullish signal in question and the MKT back in a messy digestive trade.

JS

This post supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

FOREX USDCHF, AUDUSD - Time to play a card

As a follow up to last Thursday's negative signal in the AUDUSD and USDCHF MKTs.

USDCHF for July 13, 2009

The USDCHF did not follow through and produced a positive corrective signal on Friday. Today the question is the USDCHF going to return to to its negative signal or is the MKT going to transition back into a firm posture.

Key off the 10819 Inflection Pivot for the answer.

A held trade above 10819 keeps the MKT firm up to the 10943 resistance pivot. If the rally is going to stall it will here. A breach and the USDCHF transitions into a more aggressive positive posture putting the 11160 target in play.

A break under 10819 and the USDCHF is vulnerable to a negative turn pressing support at 10695 and 10602. Although trading at these levels is negative reactions are expected. 10371 is the lower target for any unwinding.

AUDUSD for July 13, 2009

The AUDUSD remains in a vulnerable state and aggressively offered below the 7836 Inflection Pivot.

Expectations are for the MKT to test the 7704 support with all trading below 7836. If the MKT is going to stabilize it will here. If not the pressure has the potential to accelerate down to 7473.

A rise above 7836 puts Thursday's negative signal in question up to 7902. Only above here is the signal negated and the MKT back in a difficult digestive pattern.

JS

This post supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

BEAR TREND ACCELERATION Signal - USDCHF, AUDUSD

FOREX USDCHF, AUDUSD

Both the USDCHF and AUDUSD produced a negative BEAR TREND ACCELERATION signals. In this technical state expectations are that the MKT will continue to hold negative structure and will accelerate to the downside.



AUDUSD

AUDUSD will remain vulnerable to the offer with all trading below the 7893 Inflection Pivot. This is the optimal entry area for any new sales. A break under 7780 support is a fresh negative that puts the 7668 support target in play. 7441 is the extended target for any new leg lower.



A breach of 7900-7893 negates the signal putting the MKT back in a difficult digestive trade up to 8119.

USDCHF

The USDCHF has produced a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION signal but may be a little ahead of itself. Key off the 10884 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session tone. Below here the signal is in play and the MKT threatening. 10708 is the base supporting any new weakness if the the cross is going to bounce back into a neutral posture. A break under this support is needed to confirm the negative signal targeting 10371 on any downside follow through.



A rise above 10884 negates the signal confirming this MKTs intentions o going nowhere.

JS


This post supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

GBPUSD - Back on the Fence

The GBPUSD posted a negative CORRECTIVE signal which will keep the MKT vulnerable to further losses with all trading below the 16130 Inflection Pivot.

If yesterday's selling is going to keep its edge any positive push will reject here targeting the 15905-15895 support band.

Let the truth be told. If the underlying positive momentum is going to resume course the MKT will stabilize above here. A failure and sentiment turns sour down to 15543 and 15425.

A rise above 16140-16130 puts the negative signal in question and the buyers in launch mode. Work any positive structure with expectation of a strong move up to 16347 and the 16600-16557 resistance band. Expect a reaction as no follow through is expected at this time.

JS

* Price Map Chart Overlay performance for JULY 8, 2009

EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF

USDJPY USDCAD AUDUSD

This post supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

USDJPY - BEAR TREND DIGESTION

The USDJPY slipped lower but could not extend.

9562 is today's Inflection Pivot. Expect the MKT to have a sell strength bias against here. A breach of this resistance signals a neutral shift with 9690 and 9772 the upper consolidation parameters.


USDJPY for JULY 8, 2009




9445-9433 is the price band supporting any weakness today if we are in for a digestive session. A held failure here is a fresh negative signal putting the 9326 and 9255 support targets back in play.

Note Tuesday's Price Map action for the USDJPY, as it traded within the 9546 and 9471 parameters from Monday's post.



USDJPY

The Price Map chart overlay is available in Ninja Trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal and is a powerful trading tool that puts structure to random MKT action. If you are currently using either of these platform and would like to test drive the application please contact me, info@jsservices.com .

JS

* Below are the Price Map chart overlay results for the FOREX majors for Tuesday July 7, 2009

USDCHF

USDCAD

EURUSD

AUDUSD

GBPUSD

For more information please visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

USDJPY - Negative Signal needs confirmation

The USDJPY is flirting with a negative shift in sentiment and will maintain this posture below the 9621 Inflection Pivot. This is the high point for any buying today if the negative signal is going to follow through and the best entry for any short position. Look for FADE opportunities as any test of resistance is expected to be met with a sharp rebuke. A held violation of 9627-9621 negates the negative signal putting the MKT back into a difficult digestive trade up to 9884 on any positive shift in sentiment.





A break under 9471 is needed to confirm Monday's signal targeting 9321 on any negative follow through. The MKT is having trouble sustaining any new move and this is not expected to change. Expect stop and go conditions with 9130 the release low point for any unwinding.

9546 will act as a good pivotal level within the 9621- 9471 digestive range.


JS



This commentary supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

SP500 - Back on the Fence

The SP500 U’09 contract followed through to the downside and is flirting with a negative shift in sentiment after producing a negative acceleration signal with Thursday's action.

908 remains the Inflection Pivot to key off for the MKT bias. Trading below here has the contract hard pressed with the 875 and 862.50 support target levels in play for any downside follow through.


As a practical application to entry strategies using Inflection Pivots lets review the action from the July 2, 2009 post.



The MKT started the session above the 908 Inflection Pivot with a positive signal bias providing a FADE buy as the initial opportunity, which resulted in a stop loss of -4pts.



The 908 level was identified as pivotal with a counter signal negative opportunity on a breakdown failure. “A break under 908-907.25 negates the positive signal and turns sentiment sour targeting 889.50 on any negative turn of events.”



The Index provided a BREAKOUT signal which attained the initial downside target resulting in a +17pt gain.

A FADE and BREAKOUT are two classic entry strategies to use when trading an Inflection Pivot. The other strategy is a REVERSAL.



The REVERSAL strategy played out this week in the Crude Oil Q'09 contract. From the 6-29-2009 post the 70.85 was identified as the Inflection Pivot.



Monday's action produced a negative signal and Tuesday's action started off below the 70.85 Inflection Pivot putting the MKT in a negative bias. After a false BREAKOUT the MKT produced a REVERSAL and followed through down to the 66.90 target.



Using defined entry strategies off qualified Inflection Pivots provides hard structure that allows you to define your risk. With proper risk management you are able to put yourself into opportunities where you can be wrong more times than you are right and still be profitable.

JS

This commentary supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.

The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

SP500 – Positive signal needs confirmation

The SP500 produced an Uptrend Acceleration signal, which will remain in play with all trading above the 908 Inflection Pivot.

An Uptrend Acceleration signal is when the MKT has been trading in a digestive state and takes the 1st step in transitioning to a more aggressive Bull Trend posture. Under the current technical conditions this signal will remain true above 908, which is the ideal entry area for any longs today.

Keep a positive outlook above 908 expecting a challenge to the 926.50 resistance pivot. If the signal is going to fizzle the rally will top out here. A held violation of 926.50 puts the MKT in an bid posture but a breach of 931.25 is needed to give the acceleration signal its due targeting 962.50 on the initial move.



A break under 908-907.25 negates the positive signal and turns sentiment sour targeting 889.50 on any negative turn of events. This sell off can slide as low as 971 without sounding off any alarms. Only under 962.50 are the Bears back forecasting a return of the fear factor.

Acceleration signals have the potential to be the kick start to a new move. The danger is that the the signal was false and a counter reaction is produced. By entering at qualified Inflection Pivots you reduce this risk and improve your odds of success.



JS

This commentary supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach.For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.* The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.