Tuesday, May 7, 2013

S&P 500


Today's MARKET STATE S&P 500 **BULL TREND DIGESTION**

- Technically the MKT is in a DIGESTIVE BULL TREND with a slight positive tone. The underlying tone is positive but opportunity is on both sides of the MKT today.
- On the SELL side accept FADE and REVERSAL signals at the UP and +c only. The underlying momentum is up, so keep position management and profit targets aggressive on any counter trend trades. Avoid DP BREAKOUT strategies as follow through in either direction is not expected.
- On the BUY side accept FADE and REVERSAL strategies off the DP with the expectation that any test may need to build a base before it can mount a sustained positive push. UP BREAKOUT strategies should be used as a signal for a "pullback" BUY DIR FADE strategy.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SP









Wrap Up
Today the S&P 500 was in one of JS Services unique SIGNATURE STATES, BULL TREND DIGESTION.  In this market state, opportunity exists on BOTH sides of the market as the market is "digesting" the previous move.  Sentiment remains + above the DP; however, the Critical Range extremes (UP-DP) both offer potential entry points for the session.  The UP is our expected area of major resistance and should mark the "lid" on any price advance if the digestive market state is going to play out.  As it so happened, the RSI was showing a slight divergence with price, offering a "tell" to accept the SELL UP FADE strategy at 9 am CT from our resistance level.  The mark sold off immediately down to the DIR, giving traders an opportunity to take profits on the counter-trend opportunity.

Monday, May 6, 2013

CRUDE OIL


Today's MARKET STATE CRUDE OIL **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**


- The MKT is in a sideways digestive position with a slight positive bias.
- On the SELL side avoid DP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a positive reaction against the DIR after a negative breakdown signal. UP and UT1 REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any UP FADE trades should get confirmation first.
- On the BUY side UP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade. Work any position, selling into emotional surges and re-entering on any sharp pullbacks. Expect a choppy trade and be aggressive on minimizing profit give-back. DP and DT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended.



Today's PRICE MAP Performance for CL









Wrap Up
Today in the CRUDE OIL futures market, traders had the opportunity to capitalize on the entry signal at the DIR after the upside breakout of the Critical Range.  The market opened up above the UP to start the session, and was unable to sustain the positive move.  After falling back into the Critical Range, CL made an intra-day double bottom a few ticks below the DIR.  This allowed traders to get long the market on the pullback to the DIR with confirmation from the RSI indicator.  After putting in the first bottom, the RSI firmed up substantially from the previous low level.  This highlighted the underlying strength in the market and confirmed the BUY strategy from the DIR.  The market eventually rallied back up to the UP giving JS Traders an opportunity for profit taking.

Friday, May 3, 2013

BRITISH POUND


Today's MARKET STATE BRITISH POUND **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**


- The MKT has a firm tone and as long as the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long. On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight.  REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for BP









Wrap Up
STATE, STRUCTURE, STRATEGY and TACTICS all aligned at our OPTIMAL ENTRY point today in the BP, making JS Traders look like all-stars as the BUY DP FADE opportunity as given to us just after 7:30 am CT at our KEY INFLECTION PIVOT.  The DP is the lower extreme of our Critical Range and always represents our expect major are of support; however, when the R Level (Sentiment Bias) is placed at this level, it identifies that point as the OPTIMAL ENTRY point for the session.  With an MC Value of +4, the BRITISH POUND was in a BULL TREND market state.  Expectations in this market environment is for the market to produce further gains, with any corrective pullback expected to exhaust at the DP R.  Well, at around 7:45 am CT, the market gave JS Traders a "touch and go" BUY DP FADE opportunity with confluence in our technical indicators.  The market broke structure taking out yesterdays lows and signaled traders to use the OPTIMAL HEDGE TACTICS to confirm the BUY opportunity from the DP.  Sure enough, the Stochastic and RSI both showed an OVERSOLD reading below 20 and 30 respectively.  This gave our traders confidence to accept the BUY strategy and it paid off BIG TIME!  By identifying the KEY INFLECTION PIVOT in the BP, JS Traders were able to get long the market AT the LOW of the session, and take profits at the expected target, the UP, which just so happened to be the HIGH for the session.  Today's performance in the BRITISH POUND futures market shows the importance of MARKET TACTICS in identifying high-probability trading set-ups.

Thursday, May 2, 2013

NASDAQ 100


Today's MARKET STATE NASDAQ 100 **BULL TREND**

- The MKT has a firm tone and as long as the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long. On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight.  REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for ND









Wrap Up
Today in the NASDAQ 100 market, we had a BULL TREND market environment with the R Level at the lower extreme of the Critical Range (DP).  The key "tell" for follow through potential in a BULL TREND environment is in its ability to maintain POSITIVE market STRUCTURE.  The overnight low, just above the DIR, marked the breaking point for the + structure.  After a head fake above the UP, the MKT pulled back and threatened a break in structure at 8:30 am CT.  However, the market firmed up, maintaining structure and keeping the BULL TREND signal in play.  The MA crossover / band tactic is the optimal MARKET TACTIC to use in a trending market state and it allowed us to accept the BUY UP BREAKOUT strategy around 8:45 am CT.  The market stabilized for a bit, finding SUPPORT at the UP after the breakout signal, and then rallied sharply.  Notice how price found SUPPORT at the MA band on two different occasions.  The market eventually made it up to our profit target at the UT2 around 12:30 pm CT while maintaining positive market structure throughout the entire trade.

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

SOYBEANS


Today's MARKET STATE SOYBEANS **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

- The MKT is in a sideways digestive position with a slight positive bias.
- On the SELL side avoid DP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a positive reaction against the DIR after a negative breakdown signal. UP and UT1 REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any UP FADE trades should get confirmation first.
- On the BUY side UP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade. Work any position, selling into emotional surges and re-entering on any sharp pullbacks. Expect a choppy trade and be aggressive on minimizing profit give-back. DP and DT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for S









Wrap Up
In a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state with the R Level at the DIR (center of the Pricemap), the market is "on the fence" and has the potential to create a new directional move or go nowhere and churn sideways within the Critical Range.  In this particular scenario (NEU w/ R=DIR), the moving average crossover / "band" tactic should be used along with the markets ability to maintain directional structure as the "tell".  As you can see, the market began building lower lows and lower highs during the overnight session, while the faster 21-period SMA crossed from above to below the slower 55-period SMA generating a "sell" signal.  This gave trades confidence to accept the SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy that occurred at 6:00 am CT.  The Moving Average "band" served as resistance to the 9 am rally and kept traders in the position.  The market continued to maintain negative structure until eventually reaching the minor level ** at 1366.00 around 10 am CT.  From here the market bounced off the minor support pivot to end the session by the DT1.

Tuesday, April 30, 2013

SWISS FRANC


Today's MARKET STATE SWISS FRANC **BULL TREND ACCELERATION**

- Technically the MKT is in play after producing a big positive signal. On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off the UP and +c. Expectations should be for an immediate exhaustive turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area.  Avoid SELL UP FADE strategies even with confirmation. SELL DP BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against the DIR.
- On the BUY side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies above the previous session's low point. UP BREAKOUT strategies should just "go", so do not risk much. Be wary of these strategies early in the session and look to exit on the 1st break in structure.  BUY DP FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift high.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SF









Wrap Up
Today was another great example of the importance of identifying Market STATE and using Market TACTICS to confirm STRATEGIES.  JS Services defined the technical market state as  BULL TREND ACCELERATION today in the SWISS FRANC futures market.  The expectation for this market state is for the market to produce a directional trend move to the upside, with a BREAKOUT from the UP targeting the UT2.  In a TREND STATE, traders should look to use the Moving Average crossover system to confirm the BUY signal.  Another good indication of the markets ability to trend can be seen in the ADX indicator.  As highlighted in the chart, the ADX broke above the 25 reading, signaling a "trending" market.  This signal occurred around the same time the MA crossover signal took place, adding confidence to the BUY UP BREAKOUT strategy.  When the market produced this signal, it occurred on a STRONG BAR, which was another confirmation of the long position.  The market broke out of the Critical Range with a decisive STRONG BAR, allowing traders to accept the signal and ride the rally all the way up to our profit objective at the UT2.

Monday, April 29, 2013

EURO STOXX 50


Today's MARKET STATE EURO STOXX 50 **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

- The MKT is in a sideways digestive position with a slight positive bias.
- On the SELL side avoid DP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a positive reaction against the DIR after a negative breakdown signal. UP and UT1 REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any UP FADE trades should get confirmation first.
- On the BUY side UP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade. Work any position, selling into emotional surges and re-entering on any sharp pullbacks. Expect a choppy trade and be aggressive on minimizing profit give-back. DP and DT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DSX








Wrap Up
Successful trading is a function of identifying market state, structure and strategy.  JS Services MC Value of +3 identified the EURO STOXX 50 to be in a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state.  In a NON-TREND market state, expectations are for a sideways, trendless trading environment, conducive to technical momentum indicators.  JS Service Pricemap identifies the key STRUCTURAL pivots for the session and our market commentary provides insight as to which strategies should be used.  The R Level at the DIR represents the OPTIMAL ENTRY point for the session.  Armed with this knowledge, traders were able to capitalize on the BUY DIR FADE opportunity that presented itself just after 5 am CT this morning.  Notice too, that the RSI was at a reading BELOW 30, indicating that the market was overextended to the downside.  This oversold reading confirmed the buying opportunity and got traders in the market from the optimal entry point.  For traders who missed the initial buying opportunity from the DIR, the DSX market generated another buy signal, this time with a UP BREAKOUT strategy.  A confirmed breakout of the critical range signals a change from a non-trending environment to a transitioning environment.  Our 21-period SMA had crossed above the 55-period SMA (3-min chart) and generated the "buy" signal.  As you can see, after the breakout occurred around 9:15 am CT, the moving average "band" provided a support area for future price action.  The markets ability to build + structure after our entry signal at the DIR R allowed traders to ride the long side of the market all the way up to the UT1.  By identifying the technical playing field and highlighting the key inflection points for the session, traders were able to ANTICIPATE the opportunity at the DIR R and net some nice profits.