USDJPY Forex - SMOKE AND MIRRORS

Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND CORRECTION but remains vulnerable to downside with all trading below 8948. Positive corrective action can disappear quickly so avoid leveraging up on any rally as the negative momentum will try to re-establish itself.


Key off the 8838 Inflection Pivot. This is the base keeping the positive corrective trade alive. A failure here is needed to put the currency back on the ropes.

On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies. BREAKOUT strategies below 8838 should just "go" with expectations that the negative momentum is going to resume course. These opportunities should be executed as a "one-shot" deal to avoid getting "chopped" up in a digestive trade. A more conservative entry would be to wait for a positive reaction after a negative breakout signal to FADE against 8893. FADE strategies at 8948 and 8999 should wait for confirmation as the MKT is correcting and has the potential to be "stop and go" as it probes higher. Keep profit targets tight. A better strategy is a REVERSAL, as a violation of a major inflection point that cannot be held is a negative turning point signal with the potential to be the resumption of the negative trend. Profit targets on these strategies should be greater.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT strategies above 8948 although aggressive can be profitable as long as the corrective rise maintains structure. Once broken any trading from the long side is questionable and it may be time to roll the other direction. Use basic trend following indicators to aid in position management of these trades. REVERSAL strategies off 8838 or near the previous session or move low will work best with the expectations that the MKT is going to shift into a more neutral digestive state. Keep profit targets and position management tight on these strategies.

Note: The MKT is correcting an aggressive negative trend and more likely to resume that trend than not. This being said the worst case scenario for sellers expecting the trend to resume is a low volatility "one-way" trade higher. Don't be stubborn FADING higher corrective move highs. After 2 or more losing sales take a break and wait for potential opportunity in the later part of the session. JS


* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv  .

To learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

NAT GAS - BEAR TREND CORRECTION

The Dec'09 NATURAL GAS contract bounced off support producing a positive corrective signal and is currently in a BEAR TREND CORRECTIVE technical state. Expectations are for the MKT to remain vulnerable to the downside with all trading below the 4.446 Inflection Pivot. This is the high point for any positive action today if the underlying negative momentum is going to keep the sellers engaged. A breach of this resistance and the MKT transitions into a digestive trade with 4.713 the high point for any new consolidation. Expect no follow through. Only above this price point does the technical structure shift targeting 5.170 and 5.271.




A break under 4.192 and the BEARS are back probing lower with 4.002 and 3.865 the initial targets for any resumption of the negative momentum. 3.663 is the extended target.

Good Trading

JS

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

NAT GAS Z'09 - BEAR TREND CORRECTION Signal

Strategy Based Trading is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market and looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria.

Today I'm going to go over a BEAR TREND CORRECTION technical state. MKTs in the BEAR TREND CORRECTIVE technical state will typically have sharp corrective rallies against the underlying negative momentum. The MKT has been in an underlying negative trend and has produced a positive signal against the trend. Question, is the positive signal going to following through in a transitional trade or revert back to a BEAR TREND mode.

The session Inflection Pivot will define the session behavioral state confirming or denying the positive signal. Above the Inflection Pivot the Transitional trade is in play for a strong corrective buy opportunity. Below the Inflection Pivot the contract is vulnerable to a return to the negative trend.

For today, November 17, 2009 - The following MKT is in a BEAR TREND CORRECTIVE state:

NAT GAS Z'09 - 4.722 Inflection Pivot

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a positive signal against a negative trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT however the threat of the return of the negative momentum must be respected as a good probability.

On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the negative momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to its integrity before executing a short sale against it. BREAKOUT strategies can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a negative posture with the expectation that the negative trend is going to resume. If not a better approach would be to FADE a positive "squeeze" reaction after a negative breakdown as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

On the BUY side avoid FADE strategies until after the previous session high point or major resistance has been taken out to confirm a break in momentum. Until then a better opportunity will be a REVERSAL strategy but only off the 1st major support level. This is a one shot trade using a low risk big profit target criteria. The idea is that if the MKT is going to follow through on its CORRECTIVE signal any weakness is just a "head fake " before it follows through. BUY BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE short at resistance targets. The trade is corrective and the eventual play is a resumption of the negative momentum.

For an overview on ENTRY strategies please review the following link http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv

Note: The MKT is in a corrective position with the potential to produce a sharp short covering rally, a messy sideways digest or a resumption of the negative trend. Keep your opinions to themselves and focus on what the MKT is telling you it wants to do. Don't fight it, roll with it. If you have > 3 losses consider reversing strategy.

JS

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

British Pound - Bear Trend Correction

The Dec'09 British Pound produced a positive signal against a negative underlying trend. Positive action today should be viewed as "Corrective" up to the 16146 Inflection Pivot. This is the expected high point for any upside follow through to yesterday's signal if the underlying negative momentum is going to remain in force. A rise above 16146 is a positive transitional signal that projects the currency up to 16387 and 16661 on any sentiment shift.

A break under 15873 support pivot is needed to put the contract back in a soft spot targeting 15691 on any negative turn. If the MKT is going to stabilize it will do so above here. If not the sellers will be back with 15554 and 15510 targeted.

Corrective trading environments are dynamic. Watch the current positive structure [higher move lows, higher move highs]. If its holding don't be too anxious to step in front of the rise. A break in structure followed by a squeeze test of 16146 or a REVERSAL [false Breakout] at this level is the best opportunity today to re-establish a short position. 16055 resistance will also provide a REVERSAL opportunity.

Only above 16146 can we get on board with the current positive push.

JS

STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

WHEAT Z'09 - BEAR TREND CORRECTION

The DEC '09 WHEAT contract produced a counter trend signal and may be set for a short term shift in sentiment. Key off the 460-4 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session bias. If yesterday's positive signal is going to have any meaning it will violate this price point and not look back, targeting 477-4 on the move. Although the BEAR TREND CORRECTION signal is expected to influence the MKT for the next couple days a reaction should be expected.

Trading below 460-4 and the signal is more NEUTRAL than positive with 443-4 the digestive low point for any sideways session. A break under the 443-4 support pivot and the BEAR TREND will look to re-establish itself targeting 426-4 on the next drop. 409-4 is the lower extreme for any emotional release.

MKTs in the BEAR TREND CORRECTIVE technical state will typically have sharp corrective rallies against the underlying negative momentum. Today the MKT will need to overcome the 460-4 Inflection Pivot to confirm a shift into this technical state. The 460-4 Inflection Pivot is the price point that defines the session bias and today it also defines the point where the BEAR TREND losses its grip for a corrective rise. Below 460-4 don't believe the hype, this contract remains an accident waiting to happen.

JS

Strategy Based Trading is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market and looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria.Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.

STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

STRATEGY BASED TRADING - BEAR TREND CORRECTION

No BULL TREND CORRECTIVE signals today for the MKTs covered.

There where a couple BEAR TEND CORRECTION signals, which strategy wise are the mirror image of the BULL TREND CORRECTIVE signal.



The MKT has been in an underlying negative trend and has produced a positive signal against the trend. Question, is the positive signal going to following through in a transitional trade or revert back to a BEAR TREND mode.

The R Level Inflection Pivot will define the session behavioral state confirming or denying the positive signal. Above the R Inflection Pivot the Transitional trade is in play for a strong corrective buy opportunity. Below the R Inflection Pivot the contract is vulnerable to a return to the negative trend.

For today, September 23 2009 - The following MKTs are in a BEAR TREND CORRECTIVE state:

CL = CRUDE OIL Nov'09 - 71.30 Inflection Pivot

C= Corn Dec'09 - 3.240 Inflection Pivot

Crude Oil Dec'09

The Dec'09 CRUDE OIL contract produced a positive signal against a negative trend. If the signal is going to remain the play the MKT will continue to trade above the 71.30 Inflection pivot, flirting with a transitional shift into a more aggressive positive position. A held trade below 71.30 and the contract is vulnerable to a retreat down to the 67.00 support area.

Work BUY FADE opportunities off the the 71.30 level looking to REVERSE Short on a failure. This inflection point may be messy as the contract is in the middle of a big digestive range. Be aware an keep risk parameters wide to avoid the chop.
A BREAKOUT above yesterday's high at 72.00 will bring in fresh interest with 75.50 targeted.


CORN Dec'09
The Dec'09 CORN MKT produced a positive signal against a negative trend. If the positive signal is going to follow through it will maintain a trade above the 3.240 Inflection with the potential to take out the recent high at 3.480.

A held trade under 3.240 and the MKT is vulnerable to a return to the BEAR TREND pressing support at 3.100. If the contract is going to stabilize it will here. If not the sellers are expected to get aggressive.

Both MKTs are trading above their Inflection Pivots and expectations for both MKTs will be for positive follow through. Trading above the R Level Inflection Pivot should be from the long side. Only use REVERSAL entry strategies at higher resistance levels to initiate a short position, as the bias is to the plus side above the R Level Inflection Pivot.

Below the R Level Inflection Pivot be more aggressive with sell signals. Buy signals should be suspect as the positive momentum should have accelerated and if it does not, the likely hood of a sideways trade is high. Sales below the Inflection Pivot do have potential to be the high point for the next leg lower.

JS

Strategy Based Trading is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market and looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.

STRATEGY BASED TRADING Reviewhttp://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.