DOW FUTURES

Today's MARKET STATE for DOW FUTURES **BULL TREND CORRECTION**

- The MKT has produced a negative signal against an underlying positive trend. On the SELL side accept UP FADE signals on the 1st press into the area only. REVERSAL strategies should only be done off the UP or the previous session high point and will immediately work if they are going to. Keep position and risk management tight on these trades. SELL DIR and DP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive but do have potential to be the start of a larger corrective turn. Keep risk management tight.
- On the BUY side accept REVERSAL signals off all major inflection levels, expecting the underlying positive momentum to resume. DP FADE strategies will work better with confirmation as the MKT is in a corrective state and will be probing lower, looking for soft spots. Work any BUY DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies as any positive shift in momentum has the potential to be the start of the next leg higher. DIR FADE strategies after the UP Breakout should use greater leverage.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for YM

 

Wrap Up

- After producing a negative technical signal, the DOW FUTURES had an MC Value of +1 and a BULL TREND CORRECTION market state.  The R Level at the DIR identifies this as the key inflection pivot for the session.  If the market opens up below the R Level and respects that level, the corrective trade remains in play.  However, the market opened up slightly above the R Level, signaling the opportunity was to the up side above this level.  More than likely a digestive trading day is expected unless the market gives a BREAKOUT signal from the UP, in which case a continuation of the underlying BULL TREND should be anticipated.  As it played out, the market did take on a digestive posture, giving traders the opportunity to get long from the DIR and take profits at the UP.

EURO CURRENCY

Today's MARKET STATE for EURO CURRENCY **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

- The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult "choppy" trade. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade.  UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.
- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for EU

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wrap Up

- Today in the EURO CURRENCY, our optimal HEDGE TACTIC gave traders the needed confidence to get short the market from the DP with a SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy targeting the DT2.  The market was in a NEUTRAL DIGESTION, lending itself to a sideways trading environment within the Critical Range.  However, a break in the structural support at the DP signalled traders to lean on the moving average crossover tactic.  This SELL DP BREAKOUT signal was in line with our Sentiment Bias (R), as well as our MA crossover tactic.  Having been short the market from the DP, traders were given the opportunity to realize profits on the trade when the market came within tics of our profit objective at the DT2.

EURO STOXX 50

Today's MARKET STATE for EURO STOXX 50 **NEUTRAL DIGESTION TRANSITION**

- MKT sentiment is leaning negative and will outweigh the buy side if the integrity of the previous session high remains intact.
- On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies with the expectation that the current negative transition will continue. Keep aggressive position management on DP BREAKOUT strategies as the MKT is still in the neutral zone and has yet to commit to a new trend. A more conservative strategy would be to wait for positive reactions after a negative signal to FADE the DIR.
- On the BUY side avoid DP FADE strategies until after the previous session high point has been taken out. Until then, a better opportunity will be a DP REVERSAL strategy. The idea is that the transition trade is over and a positive shift back into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION is expected. UP BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive. Risk less, go for more.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DSX
 



 

 

Wrap Up

- With an MC Value of -3 there is a negative tone to the market in the EURO STOXX 50 today.  The TRANSITION signal is in play below the R Level so any break in structure below the R Level is expected to produce a new negative move.  If the market remains above this level, a digestive trade within the Critical Range is expected.  As the market approached the expected level of RESISTANCE around 9:30 am CT, there was a BEARISH DIVERGENCE signal in our momentum oscillator, warning us of the underlying weakness of the move.  This allowed traders to short the market from our key level of resistance and take profits on the sell off at the DIR.

DOW FUTURES

Today's MARKET STATE for DOW FUTURES **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

- Technically the MKT is "on the fence" with the potential to go in either direction or nowhere. Pick your points and have no expectations, as the likelihood of this MKT trading sideways is high.
- On the SELL side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The pivotal nature of the session does have the potential to be the starting point for a new move. However, the probability of any trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extreme.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The MKT is "on the fence" and does have the potential to be the beginning of a new trend move. The probability of a new trend move is low. However, any price trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extremes.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for YM



 

 

 

 

 

 

Wrap Up

- With the R Level at the minor level below the DP, there is a "support band" from the DP to the R Level from which traders should look to get long the market.  The market is expected to respected the DP; however, a corrective sell off down to the R Level is still an opportunity for traders to get long the DOW FUTURES.  The market STATE for the YM was NEUTRAL DIGESTION so traders should look to momentum indicators for a "tell" on the market.  At 9:30 am CT, the market tested the R Level while putting in a BULLISH DIVERGENCE signal in the RSI.  This was our confirmation to get long the market from our optimal entry point.  The market respected our key inflection point at the R and rallied up to the DIR, giving traders an opportunity to realize profits.

WHEAT

Today's MARKET STATE for WHEAT **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

- Technically the MKT is "on the fence" with the potential to go in either direction or nowhere. Pick your points and have no expectations, as the likelihood of this MKT trading sideways is high.
- On the SELL side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The pivotal nature of the session does have the potential to be the starting point for a new move. However, the probability of any trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extreme.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The MKT is "on the fence" and does have the potential to be the beginning of a new trend move. The probability of a new trend move is low. However, any price trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extremes.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for W

Wrap Up
- Today was a pivotal day in the MAY '13 WHEAT futures market.  With the R Level at the DIR in a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state, the market is "on the fence" and has the potential to transition into a new move, or go nowhere and digest within the Critical Range.  When the market began to sell off sharply from the UP, our RSI indicator warned that the market was EXTREMELY OVERSOLD at our key INFLECTION PIVOT (R).  This allowed traders to get long the market from the DIR targeting the UP.  The market held support at the DIR R and eventually traded up to the top of our critical range at the UP.

SWISS FRANC

Today's MARKET STATE for SWISS FRANC **BEAR TREND ACCELERATION**

- The MKT is on edge and threatening further losses. On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below the previous session’s high point. DIR and DP BREAKOUT strategies should just "go", so do not risk much. UP FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any breach should be considered a potential positive corrective shift.
- On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major support levels. Expectations should be for an immediate "V" bottom turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area or a gradual rise with higher lows after an exhaustive signal. Avoid DP FADE strategies even with confirmation, as this is more likely a plateau for a BREAKOUT SELL strategy. UP BREAKOUT strategies are a lower probability but do have a better chance of succeeding than a DP FADE.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SF

Wrap Up
- Today in the SWISS FRANC futures market we had a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION market state with the R Level at the UT1.  The market is expected to maintain negative structure while accelerating to the downside and a break in structure should signal the look to our HEDGE TACTICS for a "tell" on the market.  The negative sentiment remains in tact below the R Level, and any corrective rally up to that level presents an opportunity for traders to get short the market.  The market respected the UP in the overnight session, before eventually penetrating our expected level of resistance later in the session.  Since the negative structure had been negated, traders look to the RSI signals to get an "edge" on the market.  As the market made a new high in price approaching the R Level, the RSI gave us a BEARISH DIVERGENCE signal.  This warned of the coming sell off and allowed our traders to get short from the optimal entry point, at the R Level.  The market immediately sold off and attained a price target of 2 APMD at the DIR.

EURO CURRENCY

Today's MARKET STATE for EURO CURRENCY **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

- Technically the MKT is "on the fence" with the potential to go in either direction or nowhere. Pick your points and have no expectations, as the likelihood of this MKT trading sideways is high.
- On the SELL side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The pivotal nature of the session does have the potential to be the starting point for a new move. However, the probability of any trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extreme.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The MKT is "on the fence" and does have the potential to be the beginning of a new trend move. The probability of a new trend move is low. However, any price trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extremes.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for EU

Wrap Up
- As a result of the strong move over the weekend, the EURO CURRENCY opened up below our CRITICAL RANGE.  Any corrective rally up to the R Level was an opportunity to short the EURO today.  As the market approached the R Level around 11:15 am CT, there was an EXTREME OVERBOUGHT signal in the RSI indicator, warning that the market was overextended to the upside.  This tactic gave traders the opportunity to short the market from the DP and ride the market down to our next major structural inflection point at the DT1.