BULL TREND CORRECTION Signals for : SP500, DOW Futures, FTSE 100

The Strategy Based Trading approach is the focus on the applied strategy and aligining our strategy criteria with the market's underlying technical state.


Today we are going to focus on MKTs that have produced a negative signal against an underlying positive trend or a BULL TREND CORRECTION signal state. A dynamic technical state with opportunity on both sides of the market.


The question, is this negative signal going to follow through or is this just a 1 day event and the underlying positive momentum is going to resume. The price point that answers this question and determines this "sentiment shift" is the session Inflection Pivot. This is the price point that defines the technical state from being a negative "corrective"posture below that price point to a positive BULL TREND position above that price point.


Trading below the session Inflection Pivot is negative keeping the CORRECTIVE SELL signal in play and the MKT vulnerable. Trading above this price point is an indication that the negative vulnerability of the MKT is reduced and there is a better chance that the underlying positive momentum is going to resume.


For November 23, 2009 the following MKTs are in a BULL TREND CORRECTIVE state and the Inflection Pivot that determines the contiuation of the sell signal or a reversion to the underlying positive trend.


EQUITY FUTURES [DEC09]


SP500 1095.50

Dow Futures 10349

FTSE100 5313


Draw a line on your intra-day chart at these levels. Look for opporunty in the direction of the price bias. Executing at or near these price points will provide the best risk / reward. SELL FADE and BUY BREAKOUT should be considered as entry strategies at these levels.


Good Trading.


JS


Strategy Based Trading is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market and looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria.STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html


For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial

NAT GAS - BEAR TREND CORRECTION

The Dec'09 NATURAL GAS contract bounced off support producing a positive corrective signal and is currently in a BEAR TREND CORRECTIVE technical state. Expectations are for the MKT to remain vulnerable to the downside with all trading below the 4.446 Inflection Pivot. This is the high point for any positive action today if the underlying negative momentum is going to keep the sellers engaged. A breach of this resistance and the MKT transitions into a digestive trade with 4.713 the high point for any new consolidation. Expect no follow through. Only above this price point does the technical structure shift targeting 5.170 and 5.271.




A break under 4.192 and the BEARS are back probing lower with 4.002 and 3.865 the initial targets for any resumption of the negative momentum. 3.663 is the extended target.

Good Trading

JS

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

NAT GAS - BEAR TREND ACCELERATION Signal

The Dec'09 NATURAL GAS contract has produced negative signal and is in a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION technical state. This signal should accelerate the current downside momentum if valid. The question, is does this signal have potential or was yesterday's negative action just a 1 day event. The price point to key off that keeps the MKT in an aggressive sell posture is the session Inflection Pivot. This is the price point that defines the technical state from being an aggressive sell posture below that price point to a potential reversal or digestive trade above that price point.



In the NAT GAS Z'09 for today 4.332 is the Inflection Pivot




BEAR TREND ACCELERATION technical state is an excited state. The MKT is fearful, almost in a panic. Any positive turn out of that state will be a big “relief” and buyers will scramble to “re balance” sometime sparking a sharp advance. If the MKT continues to hold negative structure emotional selling is expected to continue.



NAT GAS Dec'09 for November 19, 2009
Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION position and is vulnerable to the offer. Any positive corrective action is expected to be short lived with only one upside "stop squeeze" if the negative momentum is going to play out. Any held strength and repeated probe higher is a sign that the trade will turn digestive. This does not take away from the negative bias but does limit the profit potential for any new sales in the session.


On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below the previous sessions high point. BREAKOUT strategies should just "go", so do not risk much. FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any momentum shift should be considered a potential positive corrective turn.



On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off major support levels as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies and opportunities to SELL into and FADE. BREAKOUT strategies above the previous session high are a long shot, so risk less and go for more. Any BUY FADE should have confirmation and are not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact. After a break in the negative structure confirmed support levels can be used for short term reactions using aggressive position management.


Note: The MKT is in an aggressive sell posture. If the previous session high is intact its just a matter of time before the sellers try to overwhelm the MKT. Look for excuses to get short. If the previous session high is breached opportunity will be on both sides of the MKT, however the bias still rests with the Bears.



Good Trading


JS


For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

NAT GAS Z'09 - Signal Review

On Monday the Dec'09 NAT GAS contract produced a positive corrective signal that put the market in a BEAR TREND CORRECTIVE state for Tuesday. The Blog identified 4.722 as the Inflection Pivot that would confirm or deny that signal. Confirm the positive signal as the start of a new transitional rally or deny as a "dead cat" bounce.

As expected the signal was a false positive rejecting from the 4.722 Inflection Pivot. Below is the session performance with JS Services R LEVEL identifying the session Inflection Pivot. Note how the Price Map as a whole defined the market structure for the session.

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

Good Trading

JS

NAT GAS Z'09 - BEAR TREND CORRECTION Signal

Strategy Based Trading is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market and looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria.

Today I'm going to go over a BEAR TREND CORRECTION technical state. MKTs in the BEAR TREND CORRECTIVE technical state will typically have sharp corrective rallies against the underlying negative momentum. The MKT has been in an underlying negative trend and has produced a positive signal against the trend. Question, is the positive signal going to following through in a transitional trade or revert back to a BEAR TREND mode.

The session Inflection Pivot will define the session behavioral state confirming or denying the positive signal. Above the Inflection Pivot the Transitional trade is in play for a strong corrective buy opportunity. Below the Inflection Pivot the contract is vulnerable to a return to the negative trend.

For today, November 17, 2009 - The following MKT is in a BEAR TREND CORRECTIVE state:

NAT GAS Z'09 - 4.722 Inflection Pivot

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a positive signal against a negative trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT however the threat of the return of the negative momentum must be respected as a good probability.

On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the negative momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to its integrity before executing a short sale against it. BREAKOUT strategies can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a negative posture with the expectation that the negative trend is going to resume. If not a better approach would be to FADE a positive "squeeze" reaction after a negative breakdown as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

On the BUY side avoid FADE strategies until after the previous session high point or major resistance has been taken out to confirm a break in momentum. Until then a better opportunity will be a REVERSAL strategy but only off the 1st major support level. This is a one shot trade using a low risk big profit target criteria. The idea is that if the MKT is going to follow through on its CORRECTIVE signal any weakness is just a "head fake " before it follows through. BUY BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE short at resistance targets. The trade is corrective and the eventual play is a resumption of the negative momentum.

For an overview on ENTRY strategies please review the following link http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv

Note: The MKT is in a corrective position with the potential to produce a sharp short covering rally, a messy sideways digest or a resumption of the negative trend. Keep your opinions to themselves and focus on what the MKT is telling you it wants to do. Don't fight it, roll with it. If you have > 3 losses consider reversing strategy.

JS

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

EUREX BUND - Neutral Negative Shift

Strategy Based Trading is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market and looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.

STRATEGY BASED TRADING http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html

Today I'm going to go over a NEUTRAL NEGATIVE SHIFT technical state. A MKT in this position has no underlying directional bias and has produced a negative signal within a sideways digestive trade. Expectations should be for the negative signal to remain in force below the session inflection pivot targeting the digestive support extreme.

NEUTRAL NEGATIVE SHIFT

NOV 16, 2009

EUREX BUND Z'09 - 12161 Inflection Pivot

DEC'09 EUREX BUND - Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL DIGESTIVE position with a negative bias. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT but selling strength is the better opportunity.

On the SELL side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points. SELL BREAKOUT strategies should just "go" and not look back, so keep risk parameters tight. FADE strategies after a negative breakdown signal are good opportunities as well but expectation should be for the MKT to quickly move back under the failed support. If the trade just "hangs around" is more likely a signal that more digestive action is coming and a retest of resistance should be expected. Be more aggressive with FADE and REVERSAL strategies at or against the previous session high point targeting the opposing digestive support. Above the previous session high point enterying after the 2nd or 3rd press into an area is recomended over stepping in front of the initial challenge.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive and should be entered sooner [lower] than later [higher]. Expectations should be for the MKT to make its move early in the session and not look back, holding strucutre most of the day. If the MKT digests prior to making a positive move it is more likely a short squeeze to FADE. BUY FADE strategies are aggressive and if they are going to work should do so on the initial test of support. Repeated tests or "confirmation" are more likely to give way to a lower trade. BUY REVERSAL strategies are recommended off the session initial major support only, as the MKT is vulnerable to a negative trend shift. The probability is to the downside today so don't get stubborn buying breaks.

Note: The MKT is in neutral so "sloppy" conditions with "false signals" should be anticipated. Have a plan for any squeeze. Don't get stubborn however if the MKT starts to hold structure and gets into trend mode as the contract may just be expanding its digestive parameters producing a one way trade into the close and new extreme.

For an overview on ENTRY strategies please review the following link
http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv

Good trading.

JS

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

EuroFX Z'09 - Negative Signal needs confirmation

The DEC'09 EUROFX posted a big negative signal but will need to trade under the 14810 Inflection Pivot to confirm a sentiment shift. Key off this price point for the session bias. A failure here and expectations are for further losses targeting 14630 on any downside follow through. A false breakdown that cannot sustain a failure from 14810 is expected to produce a nice positive REVERSAL signal with 14978 targeted.

If we do not get a play into the 14810 level expectations will be for a difficult trading environment with 14978 and 15062 the high points for a new digestive trade.

Good trading.

JS

STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.