SOYBEANS

Today's MARKET STATE SOYBEANS **NEUTRAL POSITIVE TRANSITION**


- Technically the MKT has the potential for a positive turn. Opportunity exists on both sides, however there is a better chance of an acceleration to the upside if the integrity of the previous session low remains intact. On the SELL side avoid UP and DIR FADE strategies until after the previous session low point has been broken. Until then, a better opportunity will be a UP REVERSAL strategy. The idea is that the transition trade is over and a negative shift back into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION is expected. DP BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive. Risk less, go for more.
- On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies with the expectation that the current positive transition will continue. Keep aggressive position management on UP BREAKOUT strategies as the MKT is still in the neutral zone and has yet to commit to a new trend. A more conservative strategy would be to wait for negative reactions after a positive signal to FADE the DIR.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for S

Wrap Up

Today the STRONG BAR breakout pattern was the "tell" to accept the UP BREAKOUT strategy in the SOYBEANS market.  The MKT was in a NEUTRAL POSITIVE TRANSITION market state with the sentiment bias below the market.  The press into the UP was the "tell" for whether or not the market was going to follow through on the transitional signal.  The STRONG BAR BREAKOUT above the UP was a solid psychological signal that confirmed the LONG opportunity from the UP.  The expectation was for a pop up to the UT2 and the explosive move today allowed traders to stay in the trade all the way up to the UT3 resistance level.  By realizing the positive momentum had staying power after holding above the UP on the retest, traders were able to get long the market on either the initial BREAKOUT from the UP or the retest of the UP.  The market maintained positive structure throughout the entirety of the trade and allowed traders to profit on the explosive upside move, that eventually corrected and closed the session just about flat on the day.

CANADIAN DOLLAR

Today's MARKET STATE CANADIAN DOLLAR **BEAR TREND CORRECTION**


- Technically the MKT is on edge and flirting with a release. The MKT has produced a big negative signal and any positive corrective action is expected to be short-lived. Any held strength is a sign that the trade will turn digestive.
- On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below the previous session's high point. DIR and DP BREAKOUT may need to be "worked" as the MKT is on edge and will be emotional, producing some starts and stops before it drops.
- On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off major support levels as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies. BREAKOUT strategies above the previous session high are a long shot, so risk less and go for more. Any DIR or DP FADE should have confirmation and is not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for CD

Wrap Up

In a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION market state, traders should look to get short the market aggressively from below the R Level at the UT1.  After finding support at the DT1 following the early morning breakout from the DP, the market played host to a sharp corrective rally that tested the upside pivot.  This presented a PERFECT opportunity for traders to get short the market with a SELL UP FADE strategy.  After the market failed from our UP resistance pivot, a selling opportunity was again presented at the DIR in the form of the SELL CR BREAKOUT strategy.  After the early morning breach of the DP, the market retested the DIR and allowed traders to enter short, or add to their short position. Finally, the market, once again, broke out below the DP offering traders a THIRD short entry point with the SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy.  Having three different entry signals presented, the market proceeded to sell of sharply and reward the short positions.  After digesting a bit at the DT1, the market fell sharply through our initial target at the DT2 and made it all the way to our third support target at the DT3, allowing traders to take profits on the shorts.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

Today's MARKET STATE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR **BEAR TREND CORRECTION**

- Technically the MKT momentum is counter trend and will need a strong showing to overcome the underlying negative threat.
- On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies off the UP or near the previous session or move high will work best. DIR or DP BREAKOUT should just go. A better option is to FADE positive reactions against the DIR after a negative signal.
- On the BUY side accept FADE and BREAKOUT strategies. BREAKOUT should expect some "starts and stops" The trade is corrective and sharp positive surges can be erased in a hurry.  FADE will work if the corrective state is going to continue.  REVERSAL strategies are a lower probability as a break in structure should be considered a potential negative shift in momentum.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DA

Wrap Up

Not sold on the idea of Strategy-Based Trading?  Today's trading session in the AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR futures market should silence the critics.  Identifying the technical state of the market is the single most important step a successful trader must do before attempting to trade.  After the unique market environment has been established, structural inflection pivots must then be identified.  From here, traders can execute trading strategies that are optimal for the given market environment.  Today the AUSSIE DOLLAR was in a BEAR TREND CORRECTION market state.  This is a unique market environment as the market has produced a POSITIVE signal in an underlying BEAR market environment.  As a result, the expectation is for a NON TREND type session.  So now we have the market environment, the market structure is given to us through the Pricemap and based off of the BEAR TREND CORRECTION environment, we know which strategies we are looking to execute.  The final piece?  Market TACTICS.  By identifying this market as a NON TREND market type, traders should look to use momentum oscillators to confirm a trading opportunity.  Sure enough, right around 9:30 am CT the market bottomed at our expected level of SUPPORT (DP) and put in a BULLISH DIVERGENCE signal in the RSI.  We know that a corrective rally is a possibility in this market state and where better to start that rally than off our key level of support for the session.  At approx. 9:30 am CT, traders were given the BUY DP FADE opportunity with confirmation in the RSI indicator.  The market instantly bounced off the DP support pivot and did not stop until it touch the upper end of the Critical Range at the UP.  The UP - R "resistance band" marks the area that any "corrective action" is expected to exhaust at.  Sure enough, traders were able to close their longs and reverse short the market at the UP for another profitable ride back down to the DIR.  Today's trading session in the DA highlights, once again, the importance of identifying market STATE, STRUCTURE and STRATEGY.  Add to this the confirmation signals from market TACTICS and the result...HIGH-PROBABILITY TRADING.

DAX INDEX

Today's MARKET STATE DAX INDEX **BULL TREND**

- Technically the MKT is in a positive posture and as long as it continues to hold structure, further gains should be expected.  If the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long.
- On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight.  REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DAX

Wrap Up

Market STRUCTURE was the key today in identifying the opportunity in the DAX futures market as the early morning sell-off gave traders an opportunity to get long from the expected support pivot.  At 8 am CT the market found structural SUPPORT at the lower extreme of the Critical Range (DP).  This allowed traders the opportunity to get long the DAX from the support pivot at the DP.  This level proved to be the low of the session as the market bounced off this support pivot, and continued to rally throughout the morning session.  The market build positive structure after bottoming at the DP and allowed traders to stay in the position up to the DIR.  By identifying the key inflection pivots in the DAX index, JS Traders were able to anticipate the opportunity at the DP and capitalize on it.

SWISS FRANC

Today's MARKET STATE SWISS FRANC **BEAR TREND DIGESTION**

- The MKT is in a difficult sideways trade with an underlying negative tone. On the SELL side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid with the expectation that the underlying negative momentum is going to reassert itself. Work any UP FADE or REVERSAL strategies within the digestive range, covering any position near the DP.
- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal against the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any FADE trades should get confirmation or a negative exhaustion or turning point signal before executing.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SF

Wrap Up

In a BEAR TREND DIGESTION signature market state, the sentiment is NEGATIVE below the R Level with the expectation for a negatively skewed digestive trading session.  The market tested the major support pivot at the DP around 1:30 am CT, illustrating that the market was respecting this level.  After bottoming at the DP, the market rallied back up to the DIR where it put in a BEARISH DIVERGENCE signal in the RSI.  Since this is a DIGESTIVE signature state, the RSI momentum oscillator will be the OPTIMAL TACTIC for confirmation of the trade.  Sure enough, the BEARISH signal in the RSI signaled JS Traders to get short the market on the pullback to the DIR and ride the bearish pressure downward.  For traders who missed the opportunity at 5:45 am CT from the DIR, another SELL opportunity was given when the market broke down from the DP support pivot on a "strong bar", indicating the overwhelming selling pressure.  The market continued to build negative structure down to the second major support pivot at the DT1 where it stabilized for the remainder of the session.

NATURAL GAS

Today's MARKET STATE NATURAL GAS **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

- The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult "choppy" trade. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade.  UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.
- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for NG

Wrap Up

A breakdown from the KEY INFLECTION pivot at the DP R level today in the NATURAL GAS futures market signaled traders to ride the negative momentum with a SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy targeting the DT2.  With confirmation from the MOVING AVERAGE TACTIC (optimal hedge tactic), traders were able to trade WITH the negative momentum and get short from the DP.  After breaching this significant level of support, the market sold off sharply before finally stabilizing at our profit objective, the DT2.  Although the expectation coming into the session was for a NEUTRAL session trading between the Critical Range, the negative structure throughout the morning session was a "red flag" alerting traders to the possibility of the downward directional move.

BRITISH POUND

Today's MARKET STATE BRITISH POUND **BEAR TREND ACCELERATION**

- The MKT is vulnerable to the offer and threatening fresh losses. On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below the previous session’s high point. DIR and DP BREAKOUT strategies should just "go", so do not risk much. UP FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any momentum shift should be considered a potential positive corrective turn.
- On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off major support levels as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies and opportunities to SELL into and FADE. BREAKOUT strategies above the previous session high are a long shot, so risk less and go for more. Any DP FADE should have confirmation and is not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact. After a break in the negative structure is confirmed, support levels can be used for short-term reactions using aggressive position management.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for BP

Wrap Up

Identifying the KEY STRUCTURAL levels in the BRITISH POUND futures market had traders shorting the currency from the expected level of RESISTANCE.  In a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION market state, the expectation is for the market to maintain aggressive negative structure, building lower lows and lower highs.  When the market rallied above the *1.5239 level early morning, the aggressive signal was negated; however, the market remained bearish BELOW the sentiment bias, represented by the R Level.  The R Level at the minor level above the UP created a "resistance zone" with the UP being the expected MAJOR level of resistance.  Our first sell opportunity was given at 4:30 am CT when then market put in an OVERBOUGHT signal in the RSI at our KEY RESISTANCE PIVOT (UP).  Traders were able to short the market from the UP and ride the trade down to the DIR.  After bottoming about 12 tics above the expected level of SUPPORT at the DP, the market again tested the RESISTANCE PIVOT at the UP.  A double top was put in right at our major level of resistance with a SLIGHT bearish divergence signal with the 7:45 am CT top, once again allowing traders to enter the market from the short side.  As anticipated, the market sold back off to the DIR and allowed traders to take profits on the position.