Today's MARKET STATE for DAX INDEX: **BULL TREND CORRECTION**
- The MKT has produced a negative signal against an underlying positive trend. On the SELL side accept UP FADE signals on the 1st press into the area only. REVERSAL strategies should only be done off the UP or the previous session high point and will immediately work if they are going to. Keep position and risk management tight on these trades. SELL DIR and DP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive but do have potential to be the start of a larger corrective turn. Keep risk management tight.
- On the BUY side accept REVERSAL signals off all major inflection levels, expecting the underlying positive momentum to resume. DP FADE strategies will work better with confirmation as the MKT is in a corrective state and will be probing lower, looking for soft spots. Work any BUY DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies as any positive shift in momentum has the potential to be the start of the next leg higher. DIR FADE strategies after the UP Breakout should use greater leverage.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DAX
Wrap Up
- In a BULL TREND CORRECTION market state with the R Level at the minor level below the DP, the analyst is saying that any sort of corrective pullback to the R Level is an opportunity to get LONG the market with the expectation for the underlying BULL TREND to continue. After respecting the R Level on multiple tests from 6-7:30 am CT, the market eventually penetrated the R Level just after 9:30 am CT. The market failed to follow through the DT1 and quickly reversed back above our R Level. By keeping an eye on our MOMENTUM indicator (RSI), traders were able to notice the BULLISH DIVERGENCE that occurred in the indicator, and get long the market from the R Level. After rallying back into our Critical Range, traders were given an opportunity to net profits at the DIR around 10 am CT.
Today's MARKET STATE for SWISS FRANC: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**
- The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult "choppy" trade. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade. UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.
- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SF
Wrap Up
- Today was a "MONEY DAY" In the SWISS FRANC market. The MC Value of -1 represents a slight negative bias in a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state. The NEGATIVE tone for the session is confirmed by the R LEVEL being placed at the UP. Our expectation for the session is for a sideways trading environment, looking to SELL the MKT on any corrective rally up to the UP. At 3 am CT, overnight traders were able to capitalize on the SELL UP FADE strategy as the market respected our key inflection point, and sold off throughout the rest of the day. After the high was put in at 3 am CT at the R Level, the market continued to build NEGATIVE structure (lower lows, lower highs) reiterating the negative tone. Around 10 am CT, the market gave us a SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy. Having built negative structure throughout the entire session, this was a valid strategy to accept. After selling off sharply, the market found support at the DT1, rebounded back to the DP and then sold off throughout the rest of the session, giving traders a chance to take profits at the DT2.
Today's MARKET STATE for S&P 500: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION TRANSITION**
- The MKT is flirting with a shift in sentiment. Opportunity exists on both sides with the potential for a decisive session. Key off the R LEVEL sentiment bias for the “tell” to the MKTs next move. On the SELL side FADE and REVERSAL strategies should be executed off the UP only, as any positive showing has the potential to be the start of something bigger. DP BREAKOUT strategies may need to be "worked" as false starts and stops should be expected. Use aggressive position and risk management on the initial failure signal. If stopped out, back off and look to FADE a positive push against the DIR rather than continue to press it in the hole.
- On the BUY side UP BREAKOUT strategies should just go if the MKT is going to transition higher. A sideways trade after a breakout signal is a sign of weakness, foreshadowing a retest of support before a new move north. DP FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid as well as support levels near the previous session low. A break under the previous session low point is a negative signal that has the MKT vulnerable to a return to the offer.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SP
Wrap Up
- The R Level was our KEY INFLECTION point today in the S&P 500 market as the market was flirting with a shift in sentiment. The R Level held Resistance at the UP at 7 am CT proving that this was indeed the key inflection point in the market. After stabilizing at the minor level at 1494.50, the market made another run to the UP. The market penetrated our key inflection point, giving traders a BUY UP BREAKOUT opportunity. This is a signal that traders should be anticipating as the market is in a TRANSITION, and the BREAKOUT of the Critical Range confirms this. If the market is indeed going to transition higher, it should just "go" and not reverse back into the Critical Range. This was the case, as the market continued to rally, surpassing the UT1, and eventually achieving our BREAKOUT target of 2 APMD at the UT2 at 11:30 am CT. Also notice the MA cross that occurred just after 8:30 am CT confirming the BUY signal. Keep it simple. The MA cross told us to accept BUY strategies, our R Level identified the optimal entry point and the UT2 served as our exit level to take profits on a well-executed trade.
Today's MARKET STATE for DOW FUTURES: **NEUTRAL NEGATIVE SHIFT**
- Technically the MKT has produced a negative signal against a positive trend. On the SELL side avoid UP and DIR FADE strategies until after the previous session low point or major support level has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. Until then, a better opportunity will be a UP REVERSAL strategy. DP SELL BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE long at support targets. The trade is corrective and the underlying positive tone must be respected.
- On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies, which should have at least 1, if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. UP BREAKOUT strategies can risk a little more if current events confirm a positive posture. If not, a better approach would be to FADE the DIR after a UP breakout.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for YM
Wrap Up
- Today in the DOW FUTURES market, the MC Value of -2 identified a NEUTRAL NEGATIVE SHIFT Market State for traders. NEUTRAL Market States should expect a choppy, sideways trading environment within the Critical Range. With the R Level at our expected level of RESISTANCE (UP), the SELL R FADE strategy is a valid opportunity. As highlighted by the RSI indicator, the market was extremely overbought AT our KEY INFLECTION point. This was our "tell" to get short the market from the UP around 9 am CT. Since our expectation is for a sideways trading session, profits should be realized sooner rather than later, and the market gave traders an opportunity to net profits just after 10:30 at the DIR.
Today's MARKET STATE for S&P500: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**
- The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult "choppy" trade. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade. UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.
- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SP
Wrap Up
- Today in the S&P 500 futures market, our optimal hedge strategy proved effective as the market broke out of its digestive posture and hosted a major sell off. Our optimal hedge strategy in a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state is a SELL R BREAKOUT strategy. The yellow circle / arrow highlights the MA crossover that signals traders to accept the SELL BREAKOUT signal. Also, it is important to note the negative structure being built throughout the entire session. Just after 10:30 am CT, traders are given the SELL R BREAKOUT strategy. This trade is validated around noon when the market puts in a LOWER move high that fails to trade above the R Level. Our expectation for this trade is for a move to the DT2. The market sold off sharply this afternoon, allowing traders to close out their shorts around 2:30 at the DT2 profit target.
Today's MARKET STATE for CANADIAN DOLLAR: **BEAR TREND**
- Technically the MKT is vulnerable to the offer. On the SELL side accept all BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL signals. The MKT is on edge and any negative signal, especially below the previous session high, is an opportunity. Anticipate a price "zone" around a major resistance point to FADE. Have a plan and be ready. If your stop gets hit and the MKT does not immediately follow through, consider re-entering, even doubling up if there is structure to define low risk.
- On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major support levels but preferably after an emotional sell off. This is an aggressive strategy and any profits should be realized at the previous support failure points. Avoid DP FADE BUYS even with confirmation, as this is more likely a plateau for a BREAKOUT SELL strategy. UP BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but do have a better chance of succeeding than a DP FADE.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for CD
Wrap Up
- The MC Value of -7 identified a strong BEAR TREND Market State in the CANADIAN DOLLAR today. With the R Level at the UP, traders should look to get short the market below this level. In these TRENDING states, the Moving Average crossover tactic works well and helps confirm the negative tone of the market. The market bounced off the UP at 4:30 am indicating that this was a level of structural support. After the MA cross occured at 7 am followed shortly after by the breakout below the DP, traders should have accepted this SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy with a profit target at the DT2. The market had a "knee-jerk" correction around 7:30 that failed below the DP and then continued lower, stabilizing at the DT1 and ultimately attaining our downside target at the DT2 around 8:30 am CT. By identifying the technical state of the market and which tactics are most applicable in that state, our traders were able to capitalize on the big sell off in the CD market today.
Today's MARKET STATE for NASDAQ 100: **BULL TREND CORRECTION**
- The MKT has produced a negative signal against an underlying positive trend. On the SELL side accept UP FADE signals on the 1st press into the area only. REVERSAL strategies should only be done off the UP or the previous session high point and will immediately work if they are going to. Keep position and risk management tight on these trades. SELL DIR and DP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive but do have potential to be the start of a larger corrective turn. Keep risk management tight.
- On the BUY side accept REVERSAL signals off all major inflection levels, expecting the underlying positive momentum to resume. DP FADE strategies will work better with confirmation as the MKT is in a corrective state and will be probing lower, looking for soft spots. Work any BUY DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies as any positive shift in momentum has the potential to be the start of the next leg higher. DIR FADE strategies after the UP Breakout should use greater leverage.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for ND
Wrap Up
- Today in the NASDAQ 100 futures market we had an impressive follow through on the CORRECTIVE signal. Our market commentary tells us that SELL UP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive; however, they do have the potential to be the start of the next move lower. Using our MA crossover tactic, along with the appearance of a strong bar with a lower close through our key area of support at the DP, the market is telling us to accept the SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy. This strategy proved successful as the market continued to make new lows, eventually making it down to our target area around the DT2 just after 1 pm CT.
