Tuesday, January 5, 2010

FOREX - EURJPY - NEUTRAL CORRECTION

FOREX - EURJPY ** NEUTRAL CORRECTION **

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a big negative signal against a positive trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT however the negative signal must be respected below the 13219 Inflection Pivot.

On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies against the 13219 pivotal resistance until after the previous session low point or major support level has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. REVERSAL strategies here should be avoided as any positive breach is more likely an indication that the underlying positive trend is going to resume. SELL BREAKOUT strategies under the 13119 support can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE long at support targets. The trade is counter trend so avoid any negative commitments.

On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies at the 13119 support, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges before executing a long off it. BREAKOUT strategies above 13219 can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a positive posture. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction after a positive breakout signal as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

Note: The MKT has produced a big technical signal against the current trend. Be aware that the negative action may be a 1-day event with the positive trend quickly re-establishing itself. If the MKT is really going to turn it should remain hard pressed and provide little or no relief.


JS


This post supports the Strategy Based Trading, which is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market. The approach looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.




For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

Monday, January 4, 2010

FOREX - EURUSD - BEAR TREND CORRECTION


FOREX EURUSD - BEAR TREND CORRECTION

Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND CORRECTION and has yet to confirm a break in momentum. Positive corrective action today will need some support if it is going to have much staying power, as the negative momentum remains a threat.

Key off the 14373 Inflection Pivot for the session bias.

On the SELL side accept REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies. Downside BREAKOUT strategies below 14373 should just "go" with expectations that the negative momentum is going to resume course targeting 14257. If there is more than one pullback after a downside breakout it is more likely that the corrective rally is about to resume. FADE strategies against the 14489 resistance pivot should wait for confirmation as the MKT is correcting and has the potential to be "stop and go" as it probes higher. Keep profit targets tight. A better strategy is a REVERSAL strategy, as a violation of a major inflection point that cannot be held is a negative turning point signal with the potential to be the resumption of the negative trend.

On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies off the 14373 Inflection Pivot will work best with the expectations targeting a new corrective high. Avoid BREAKOUT strategies above 14489 but rather FADE negative reactions off structure after a positive signal. If the corrective trade is going to continue targeting 14593, it should hold structure and maintain a trade above 14373. Once it doesn't its time to roll the other direction.

Note: Although the MKT is in a BEAR TREND the current CORRECTION has the potential to be the start of a positive turn. Don't get stuck in sell strength mode looking to "pick a top" against a structured rise. Rather go with it or wait for the momentum to be broken to jump on the BEAR TREND.

JS

This post supports the Strategy Based Trading, which is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market. The approach looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.

STRATEGY BASED TRADING Reviewhttp://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

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JS

Monday, December 21, 2009

USDJPY - PRESSING THE POSITIVE TURNING POINT

FOREX - USDJPY ** NEUTRAL POSITIVE EXTREME **


The MKT is pressing the upper edge of its neutral digestion at the 9164 resistance pivot and will need to generate a positive push today if it is to avoid falling back into a corrective trade.


On the Sell side REVERSAL strategies off the 9164 and 9241 levels will work best as any false positive signal is expected to provide a sharp negative reaction. FADE strategies off the 9164 level are valid but will work better after the 2nd or 3rd press into an area. BREAKOUT below the 9010 support Inflection Pivot are a lower probability and should be used as a signal for a FADE strategy against the 9087 Directional resistance.


On the Buy side FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended off the 9087 and 9010 pivotal levels, especially if the previous session low point remains intact. BREAKOUT strategies above 9164 should hold structure after a resistance breach if they are going to follow through targeting 9318 and 9434. Any break in momentum and the market will be vulnerable to drop back into a digestive trade.


Note: The MKT may need a session or two to catch its breath. Keep an open mind and let the MKT tell you was is.



JS

This post supports the Strategy Based Trading, which is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market. The approach looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.

STRATEGY BASED TRADING Reviewhttp://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

CORN H'10 - NEUTRAL NEGATIVE EXTREME

** NEUTRAL NEGATIVE EXTREME **



Technically the MAR'10 CORN market is at an extreme and is ready to either pop back into a firm neutral posture or break into a new down trend. Key off the 397-6 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session tone.




On the SELL side BREAKOUT strategies below 391-2 should be worked as repeated tests of support are expected to give way to negative follow through. This strategy is vulnerable to the market, expanding its lower support band in a series of starts and stops. FADE strategies against 397-6 and 404-2 should expect an immediate reaction as any held trade or violation of major resistance foreshadows a potential turning point and an opportunity to "roll" into a long position when stopped out.



On the BUY side FADE and REVERSAL strategies off the 391-2 support pivot are qualified, however the FADE is a lower probability. REVERSALS off of this support can risk more but should also go for more profit with the expectation of a turning point "key reversal" signal to play out. BREAKOUT strategies above 404-2 are aggressive and should just "go" and not look back. Risk less and go for more. A laborious lackluster rise after a positive breakout is a sign that the MKT is more likely expanding its resistance lid for a new consolidation versus transition from negative to positive technical posture.

JS


This post supports the Strategy Based Trading, which is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market. The approach looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.


STRATEGY BASED TRADING Reviewhttp://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

EuroStoxx H'10 - BULL TREND ACCELERATION

** BULL TREND ACCELERATION **

Technically the MKT is in a BULL TREND ACCELERATION posture and has produced a big positive signal. The MKT should maitain a trade above the 2883 Inflection Pivot and "run" to a new level if the signal is valid.


On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed at the 2971 and 3076 resistance levels following an exhaustive signal. Expectations should be for an immediate exhaustive turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area. A gradual decline following a reversal signal and it is more likely just a pause before another round of buying, so lock in any unrealized gains. SELL FADE strategies against 2953 and 2971 have potential but wait for repeated tests, with the best opportunity not violating the resistance level. Consider rolling long on any stops with this strategy. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 2883 are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against Directional resistance.


On the BUY side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies above the 2883 Inflection Pivot. BREAKOUT strategies above 2953 early in the session may have issues holding structure, so respect any break in momentum. BUY FADE strategies off 2883 are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift. The MKT is aggressively bid which should keep pace throughout the session if the TREND ACCELERATION forecast is going to play out.


Note: The worst-case scenario for a MKT in this technical position is to go higher early in the session and then break all day. Be alert and recognize this. If you have > 3 loser long trades, consider taking the next sell signal, anticipating a corrective turn. Remember in this technical position if the MKT is going higher, it should just go. If not, there is the potential for a corrective break or digestive trading environment.


JS


For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Australian Dollar H'10 - NEGATIVE SHIFT

** NEUTRAL NEGATIVE EXTREME **

The MAR'10 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR futures contract is on the offer and pressing into the lower extreme for its current digestive pattern and remains on edge below the 9015 Inflection Pivot.

On the SELL side accept REVERSAL strategies over FADE within the 9015-8988 area and 9128 resistance level expecting a return to a trend less trading environment rather than a new negative trend move. Avoid BREAKOUT strategies below 8881 and 8812 but rather FADE into a positive reaction after a negative breakdown signal. The MKT is extended and will have trouble sustaining any new weakness. Use aggressive position management and anticipate potential early exit points to reduce profit give-back.

On the BUY side FADE and REVERSAL strategies off the 8881 and 8812 major support base are qualified however the FADE is a lower probability and should use tight risk criteria. REVERSALs can risk more but should also go for more profit with the expectation of the MKT putting in a short term turning point signal. BREAKOUT strategies above 9015 are aggressive and should just "go" and not look back. Risk less, use aggressive position management and conservative profit limits.

Note: The MKT is in neutral at a technical extreme. Early weakness has the potential to be a good positive REVERSAL opportunity so have a plan and be prepared on any major support failures that happen at the beginning of the session. Remember as well that just because the MKT is extended to the downside does not mean it can get more extended, targeting just below where you would put your stop on any longs.
JS
For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.